Taking Stock
One month in, what can analytics tell us about where this Virginia Tech team is, where it could go, and where it will go
There is, frankly, not much sense in dissecting the loss to West Virginia. Fifteen penalties for 132 yards pretty much renders everything else moot. However, even before all the penalties, WVU was able to run the ball and VT was not. Field position kept the Hokies in the game for the first half, but very few teams can win when committing that many penalties (think Alabama and Clemson, and even then, just barely). As Chris Coleman noted in Monday’s TSL Podcast, the same crew of referees that called all those penalties in the Texas-Alabama game in week 2 called the VT-WVU game. Here’s hoping that moving forward the Hokies cut down on some of the stupid penalties and the refs hold off on throwing the flag on those that could go either way.
So, rather than look the WVU game, I think it would be more helpful to address some of the bigger picture questions the fanbase is wrestling with. Let’s start with coaching, then look at where VT stands in the ACC and how the rest of the season might unfold.
Seniors
In my analysis of the ODU game, I described the first proxy measure by which I would be judging the new coaching staff:
Finally, I noted in the preview that I was going to be looking at three veteran players as a measure of the coaching staff’s potential moving forward: Dax Hollifield, Chamarri Connor, and Jalen Holston. Why these three?
All three guys are in their final year in Blacksburg, and for most fans, they fall into the category of “they are what they are”, meaning that expectations for improvement are limited.
They are regarded as three of the hardest working players on the team, meaning they take nutrition, training, and game prep seriously.
At best, their overall PFF grades have been stagnant, and at worst they have declined through the years.
We are now one month into the season and the returns are positive. Dax’s PFF grade is a bit deceiving, as it has risen and fallen dramatically with the level of competition. If that continues, he will likely land somewhere in the upper 60s, which would still be his career high by a comfortable margin.
Chamarri Connor looks like the guy we saw burst onto the scene in 2019. He has been very solid thus far and, if he keeps it up, he could play his way into being a late round NFL draft pick.
Jalen Holston has battled injuries and received little to no blocking. And yet, his grade is only down a bit from its usual level. If the light bulb goes on for the offensive line, now that Holston appears healthy again, we could see his grade go up. At worst, he’s pretty much the same player he has always been.
Overall, if the performance of these three players continues on the expected trajectory, I think Hokie fans should all be pleased and feel confident that we will see the kind of player development necessary to return Virginia Tech to the upper echelons of college football.
System Change Up Front
Now, let’s address the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Everyone in Hokie Nation seems to be fretting about the offensive line and how poorly all the guys in the trenches are playing. We know that Joe Rudolph utilizes a different blocking scheme than Vance Vice and that some of the current players, who were recruited by Vice, are not particularly good fits for the Rudolph system. I was curious about how the last transition went, in 2015-16, from Stacy Searels to Vance Vice. What I found looks awfully similar to what we are seeing now.
Sure enough, there was a fairly steep drop-off at every position along the offensive line. And the two situations are very similar. In both cases the Hokies returned most of their starters (four in 2016, three and sometimes starter Johnny Jordan in 2022), and the team was coming off back-to-back middling years, record-wise.
(As a side note, Stacy Searels never got the respect he deserved for the work he did in his two seasons in Blacksburg. He is now the offensive line coach at the Georgia. Vice was a good coach too, but Searels recruited similar players to Rudolph. I suspect a hypothetical transition from Searels to Rudolph would have gone smoother than either of the actual transitions, which involved Vice, due to those similarities.)
The declines are greater at four out of the five positions in 2022, but we are still only four games into the season, so the 2022 grades are likely to improve some. Outside of Parker Clements at right tackle, the declines are generally in what we could call “the expected range”. The greatest difference in declines beyond RT is left guard, where Wyatt Teller started in both 2015 and 2016. In 2022, Jesse Hanson is replacing multi-year starter, and NFL draft pick, Lecitus Smith.
So yes, it is frustrating to watch the struggles up front, but we have been here before. Over time, Vance Vice grew to become one of the fanbase’s favorite position coaches. It took some time for him recruit the right type of player and teach his system, but once he did, those players performed very well. I expect the same will be true of Joe Rudolph.
How Virginia Tech Stacks Up in the ACC
According to PFF, FPI, and ELO, the Hokies are looking like a fringe bowl team that nonetheless could make some noise in ACC Coastal.
Outside of Miami’s overall grade, which I think is about 7-10 points too high, due mostly to inflated offensive grading, the rest of the chart passes the eye test. After losing to WVU, Virginia Tech dropped from the group in the mid-80s to 11th place, trailing Louisville by less than 1 point.
The divisions remain completely unbalanced. Five of the top six teams in PFF overall grade are from the Atlantic. Only three teams appear completely out of contention at this point: Virginia, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Believe it or not, if Tech beats North Carolina this week, at 2-0 in the conference, with games remaining against UVA, Georgia Tech, and Duke (will that PFF grade hold?), the Hokies would be legit contenders to win the division.
ELO, which looks more at the quality of wins and losses and includes a lag for performance in the recent past, generally aligns with PFF overall grades, with a few notable differences:
The ELO ratings have three Atlantic teams among the top four. Conversely, four out of five of the lowest ranked teams are in the Coastal (including Virginia Tech). Here, I think the Pitt rating is a bit high (still mooching off Kenny Picket and last year’s team), but otherwise, I think the ratings present a good indication of where the teams are at present.
Finally, FPI ranks ACC teams as follows:
Outside of FPI being really down on Wake and maybe a bit too high on Miami, there is not much to quibble with in these ratings. All three ratings place VT in 11th or 12th place in the conference and slightly on the outside looking in with regard to bowl eligibility.
Floor and Ceiling
Based on all the numbers, I would set the 2022 floor for Virginia Tech at 4 wins and 8 losses. The most likely outcome is probably 6-6, with the Hokies going 1-3 in October and 3-1 in November. The ceiling looks like 8-4, with wins over North Carolina and Miami in October and four wins in November to finish the season. That would leave the Hokies with a 6-2 mark in conference, with the loss to Pitt meaning the Panthers would likely hold the tiebreaker. Fuente went 9-3, 6-2 in the regular season of his first year with much more top-end talent in the starting lineup. My sense is that if the team gets the penalties under control and continues to play hard-nosed defense, the fanbase would be content with a 6-6 year and rather pleased with a 7-5 regular season.