Friday night the Hokies will come out firing on all cylinders. They will take a two-score lead in the first quarter and appear headed for a huge road win.
Then SMU will come back, retake the lead in the second quarter, and cruise to victory in an underwhelming second half.
That is my expectation for the SMU game.
SMU is coming off a disappointing loss at Syracuse, and with a short week and a long return flight after last week’s game, all indicators point toward a hangover for the Mustangs.
Meanwhile, the Hokies were off last week and will enter this game healthier along the offensive line than they have been in a while.
Both Virginia Tech coordinators have had some extra time to evaluate and tweak their schemes, so SMU will likely encounter play concepts that the Hokies have not put on film yet this year.
All of this is to say that there will be an adjustment period, during which Virginia Tech will have a significant advantage.
However, once both teams settle in, there is every reason to believe that SMU will get the better of the Hokies.
When Virginia Tech has the ball
The Hokies’ offense is a shell of its former self due to all the injuries upfront. Virginia Tech’s skill position players have enjoyed good health this season, yet their production has tailed off in recent weeks.
These guys did not forget how to play football.
It’s clear now that the offensive line is holding back the overall unit, and there isn’t much anyone outside of the medical world can do about it.
SMU’s defense has a massive advantage in the trenches against the run, rating at least 40 percentile points higher than Virginia Tech’s offense in line yards per rush and stuff rate. Perhaps the Hokies will run more jet sweeps and even throw in some option to the perimeter, just to keep the Mustangs somewhat honest against what will likely be a pass-heavy Virginia Tech attack.
I expect the Hokies to be more aggressive than usual on first down. SMU’s defense is only in the 38th percentile in explosiveness allowed. It is also middle-of-the-pack in standard-down success. The Hokies need to stay out of third-and-long, as SMU is in the 90th percentile in passing-down success.
Overall, SMU presents an unfavorable matchup for the Hokie offense. Once the Mustangs adjust to whatever new wrinkles the Hokies bring with them to Dallas, expect it to be tough sledding for the boys in orange & maroon.
When SMU has the ball
Just as the numbers suggest that Tech will struggle to run the ball, so too do they suggest SMU will find few openings on the ground.
If SMU’s advantage in defending the run is “massive” then Virginia Tech’s is ginormous (defined as massive times 1.5). SMU has a similar inexperience problem in spots along the offensive line, and they have struggled all season to generate push up front.
Despite two good offenses featuring two very good running backs, there is not much likelihood that either finds much success against the opposing defense.
SMU’s strengths are in the passing game, and the Mustangs have every reason to throw the ball early and often.
Perhaps most concerning for Tech fans is a seldom acknowledged stat — average yards to goal (or the inverse of average starting field position). The Hokies are in the bottom quartile, while SMU is in the 93rd percentile.
The Mustangs’ offense is plenty good enough on their own. Gifting them even one short field may be enough to cost the Hokies the game. The key word is may, as the Hokies are in the top quintile in points allowed per opportunity (defined as an opposing team’s trip inside a team’s own 40 yard-line).
Closing thoughts
If one counts the metrics on which each team has an advantage, then SMU could be considered a slight favorite. Now add in the SMU’s home field advantage, and it becomes clear why the Mustangs are favored by touchdown, give or take.
That said, SMU has played only one half decent team this year (three-loss Louisville), and the Mustangs lost that game by 10 points. SMU’s best win might be a victory at home over Boston College by the underwhelming score of 25-16.
The schedule is about to get much more difficult, with games against Wake Forest and Notre Dame coming up after this week’s game against Tech. If the Hokies pull out a victory, SMU could easily enter its season finally against Stanford with a 6-5 record and on a four-game losing streak.
The Mustangs have a lot on the line Friday night. The Hokies will, undoubtedly, get their best shot.
The Tech formula for victory is as follows:
Jump out to an early lead
Apply relentless pressure on Jennings, forcing him to make a few bad decisions that the Hokies convert into turnovers
Score touchdowns in the red zone, not field goals
Four quarters of special teams excellence
Of course, that is almost every team’s formula for victory. In the end, SMU will either be as good as their numbers suggest, or as mediocre as their results against an unimpressive schedule imply.
The Hokies will need at least a ‘B+’ effort to win the game outright, and perhaps even more.
Is that possible on the road against a good team?
Yes.
Is it likely?
Unfortunately, no.