Scouting Report: Ali Jennings
Is he a true WR1? Can he stay healthy?
This is the third in a series of articles providing detailed breakdowns of Virginia Tech’s most important players heading into 2024. Data are sourced from PFF.
Following the bowl win over Tulane, much was made of the four senior receivers who elected to return to Blacksburg for their Covid year. Three of the four - Da’Quan Felton, Stephen Gosnell, and Jaylin Lane - are known quantities.
Then there is Ali Jennings.
One of last year’s major portal signings, Jennings made a statement in week 1 with two TD receptions against Old Dominion, his former team.
Then he suffered a freak injury against Purdue the following week that ended his season.
Jennings has a lot on the line in 2024 as a fringe NFL talent coming off two straight season-ending injuries. A strong (and healthy) year could propel him into a Day 3 NFL Draft selection. Conversely, another injury might lead him to “go pro in something other than sports.”
I broke down Jennings’s high level stats in an article last summer. Here, I will build on that introduction with a more detailed look at snap counts and tendencies, two metrics that could provide clues as to how the Hokies will feature Jennings in 2024.
Usage
Jennings was on the field for 768 offensive snaps in 2021 and 507 in 2022. On a per game basis, there was not much difference - he averaged nearly 51 snaps per game in 2022, down from 55 the previous year.
Of note, over the last three years, there is a clear trend toward lining Jennings up in the slot more often. In 2021, he lined up out wide on 97% of his snaps. That figure declined to 87% in 2022 and further still, to 83%, in 2023.
Virginia Tech is much deeper out wide than it is in the slot. Additionally, among the four returning senior receivers, only Da’Quan Felton made it through last season unscathed.
As a result, I expect the more injury-prone players will platoon to some degree.
For example, it is unlikely that there will be many plays in which the trio of Stephen Gosnell, Lane, and Jennings are all on the field at the same time. More likely is that one or two out of the three will be on the field for most plays.
When Lane is on the sideline, Jennings will be a leading candidate to slide down into the slot. Or, he might play some opposite Lane with Felton and Ayden Greene lined up wide in a four-receiver set.
The combination of Jennings’s experience and the plethora of wideout options means we could see Jennings in the slot on up to 25% of his snaps.
Run blocking
Jennings showed himself to be a good blocker at both West Virginia and Old Dominion. Although his run blocking grade dipped a bit in last year’s small sample, his grade was consistently above average in the prior years:
That said, his average run blocking grade has declined in each of the last three years. That, along with his injury history, suggests he is more likely to get a breather on running plays.
His pass to run play ratio has ranged from 1:1 last year at Virginia Tech to 2:1 at ODU in 2022. For his career, Jennings gets 3 pass play snaps for every 2 run plays. That sounds about right for 2024.
The astute reader is probably thinking, “Yeah, but Tech is a run heavy team now. What will that mean for his playing time?”
Glad you asked! Let’s run a hypothetical. Suppose…
Tech averages 67 offensive snaps per game and, technically, runs the ball on 63% of snaps, but only 57% were designed runs (the rest were scrambles or sacks)
That translates into 42 rushes and 25 passes per game, with Bowen calling, on average, 38 runs and 29 passes
Tech can’t have Jennings on the field for every passing play - that would be a dead giveaway as to the play call - so let’s suppose he’s on the field for 90% of designed throws
That would put Jennings on the field for 26 called passes, and we’ll assume that 3 of the 4 uncalled runs occur with Jennings on the field
The final result is that Jennings will get 23 snaps on passing plays and 15 on rushing plays for a total of 38 snaps per game
Thirty-eight does not seem like a whole lot of snaps for the guy who is supposed to be the team’s WR1, but if Tech were to play in the ACC Championship Game, that would mean Jennings would log 532 snaps for the year, something he has only done once in his career (2021).
Realistic expectations
Ali Jennings has posted at least an 80 offensive grade and an 80 receiving grade in each of the past two seasons. He will probably do so again this season.
But his overall numbers will depend on his effectiveness in more limited role. He might squeak over 700 yards receiving if Tech plays at least 14 games, but a more likely total is around 600.
That is no knock on Jennings. Rather, it is a nod to the reality of Jennings’s injury history, the deep pool of talent at wide receiver, and the team’s run first philosophy.
If he notches double digits in TD receptions, and Tech wins 10 games, that may still be enough to secure placement on an All-ACC team and a late round NFL Draft position.