Saturday and Beyond

The problems with Virginia Tech football are bigger than you may think

For the first time since midway through the 2021 season, Virginia Tech will play a football game in which the outcome is of secondary importance.

The focus now is on the machinations surrounding the program, and the impending changes within the athletic department and coaching staff.

Still, there is a game to play, and while Virginia Tech is by far the more talented team, there is little reason to expect the Hokies to beat ODU tonight.

Seriously.

Unfavorable numbers

The Hokies, still winless on the season, have played games against two above average P4 teams in South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

ODU has defeated FCS North Carolina Central and lost to Indiana.

With those caveats in mind, the discrepancy between the two teams in terms of advanced stats is startling.

To put it simply, when Virginia Tech has the ball, it’s bad on good. When the Monarchs have the ball, it’s good on bad.

Another status quo performance by the Hokies in Lane Stadium tonight will result in a humiliating, double-digit defeat.

Given the negativity around the program following last week’s shocking second-half abdication of their home field, one cannot imagine the Hokies being particularly dialed-in this week.

That said, there are a ton of transfers on this team, guys who need to turn things around if they want any shot at an NFL camp invite. (I don’t see many, if any, draftees in the senior class).

Schematically, I’m looking to see whether or not Virginia Tech’s offensive coordinator, Philip Montgomery, opts for a massive change in tactics given his beat-up offensive line and that unit’s inability to protect quarterback Kyron Drones.

I’m not expecting a big change in the Tech offense, and as a result, I’m not expecting much change in the results.

On defense, the Hokies brought in half a million transfer safeties. None of them have played particularly well. In fact, if PFF is any indication, the Hokies are worse off at safety positions played by anyone other than Quentin Reddish than they were last year.

The linebackers have been underwhelming, as well. If Xavier Adibi’s boys do not show improvement this week, we aren’t likely to see it this year.

The biggest quantitative unknown at present is which group has a higher percentage of its people who have tuned out just two weeks into the season: the team or the fanbase.

If the numbers in that metric appear high and relatively close, things could get very ugly inside Lane Stadium.

I’m not predicting it, but I also would not be surprised if Old Dominion wins the game by three touchdowns.

That is how broken the program is at the present time.

What the BOV should be doing

Brent Pry is not the problem. His hiring was the result of deeper problems within the athletic department, the university, and the commonwealth of Virginia.

When Frank Beamer retired, following the 2015 season, Virginia’s Tech’s head coaching position was viewed nationally as good, but not great.

(Imagine if Frank had retired after the 2006 season. Might the Hokies have had a chance to hire West Virginia’s own Nick Saban? Alabama had more tradition, but at the time, Virginia Tech was unquestionably the better job.)

Following Beamer, the Hokies signed an up-and-coming coach in Justin Fuente, who was unaware of the cracks in the program’s foundation.

Fuente was loyal to a fault. In hindsight, he should have taken a better job after winning 19 games in his first two seasons in Blacksburg.

There were too many problems beyond his control that were only getting worse.

That much was clear when Brent Pry was handed the keys after the 2021 season.

Ask yourself, why is it Virginia Tech could not get anyone better to coach its football team? I, like most of you, had not even heard of Brent Pry before word leaked out that he would be the next head coach.

Pry was the anti-Justin Fuente, which I guess was enough to get him the job, but Fuente was never the problem.

The main problem is that in order to be a successful, fringe top-25 program, the Hokies need both better resources and more in-state talent.

Yes, talent in the high school ranks is a big issue.

Pay attention to Chris Coleman over at Tech Sideline. He talks constantly about the Washington Catholic Athletic Conference, and the great coaching the players in that league receive.

He doesn’t talk much about the 757 anymore, and really, he pays lip-service to the Richmond area.

Tech has done pretty well with WCAC kids in the last 10 years, but there are not enough of them to build a winning program.

The Hokies, as well as their rivals up in Charlottesville, need more in-state talent, but they are not going to get it until high schools start paying more to retain good coaches.

Talent follows good coaches, and the flow is headed straight out of state.

This trend was reinforced as I read Jeremy Haymore’s exquisite book The Bandana Express about the 1980 state champion Giles Spartans.

One of the stars of that team was Greg Mance, who would later achieve great success as the head coach at Richlands.

A few years back, Mance jumped at the chance to move to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to take his “dream job”. After all, the pay was better, he could still coach a good team, and the beach was right there. What’s not to love?

It’s not like Richlands, a Division 3 school, was sending a bunch of players to Virginia Tech, but that level of high school football in southwest Virginia formed a critical pipeline to Virginia Tech.

Logan Thomas is a prime example, having graduated from Brookville, a Division 3 high school in Lynchburg.

Take a survey of the high school coaches in southwest Virginia these days, and I doubt you’ll hear one describe his as a “dream job”.

The next head coach and athletic director are unlikely to know the details of the structural problems that have led to the downfall of the VHSL.

Until Virginia Tech’s Board of Visitors can pinpoint the factors driving the problems at the state level, and formulate a plan to advocate for their reversal, I’d just as soon keep the current regime at Virginia Tech in place.

There is no point in setting up yet another coach to fail.