Pry & Co. Take on Miami
Brent Pry listed the 1995 Miami game as his favorite moment in Blacksburg as a Grad Assistant. Will Miami be for him what North Carolina was for Justin Fuente?
It is for games like this that I built the score prediction model. PFF grades, recruiting rankings, FPI, conventional statistics, and advanced statistics all point toward Miami being a more talented team than Virginia Tech, and one that is playing better football in 2022. Oddsmakers favor Miami by a touchdown and expect a defensive slugfest.
The model, to quote the great Lee Corso, says, “Not so fast, my friend! Virginia Tech, by a single point!”
Can Miami really be the better team playing better football, favored by Vegas, and still lose? Read on to find out…
The Lane Stadium Factor
The conventional wisdom in football circles is that playing at home is worth 2 to 3 points. I was curious what the impact of home field advantage was for the Hokies this week according to the model, so I switched that variable from home to away and kept everything else the same. The result? If the game was being played in Coral Gables, the model would pick Miami to win 38-31. That’s an eight point swing from the 34-33 prediction it has made with VT as the home team. The data that powers the model only goes back to 2003, but I think the 2001 and 2002 games are illustrative of Lane’s impact on this series.
In 2001, #1 Miami was a juggernaut on its way to winning the National Championship when it came to Lane Stadium to take on a top-15 Virginia Tech team in the final game of the season. After Miami got out to a huge lead, VT fought its way back and nearly tied the game, but for Ernest Wilford’s drop of a two-point conversion pass from Grant Noel. The Hokies got the ball back near midfield with a chance to set up a go-ahead field goal attempt with less than five minutes to go, but Ed Reed snagged the fourth Miami interception of Noel, sealing the Hokies’ fate. The Hurricanes squeaked out of Blacksburg with a 26-24 win.
In 2002, the Hokies travelled down to Miami with a 9-3 record, but sputtering down the stretch. The Tech defense was banged up and struggled to get off the field. Still, the 2002 Hokies, with early wins an against Nick Saban coached LSU and at Texas A&M, were better than the 2001 edition (remember, 2002 was the Suggs and Jones year in the backfield). Meanwhile, #1 Miami was on its way to a repeat appearance in the National Championship game, one they would lose in 2OT to Ohio St. In my opinion, from watching both teams, I think the 2001 Hurricanes were better than the 2002 team, but both were very, very good. Alabama good. In the 2002 VT-Miami game, WIllis McGahee ran for 6 TD (Izzy Abanikanda style), and Miami won 56-45. The game wasn’t even that close. Miami tried a throwback pass to QB Ken Dorsey in the VT redzone that was intercepted and returned for a TD by Tech safety Willie Pile. That one play swung the game 14 points in Tech’s direction. Otherwise, we’d be looking at a 63-38 Miami win. So yeah, home field matters when these two teams play.
Disjointed Offense
Mario Cristobal is Miami’s new head coach, the latest in a long line of coaches charged with returning the Hurricane football program to relevance. The Canes were the odds on favorites to win the Coastal Division this year, but have struggled with inconsistency. They have yet to put together a complete game in all phases against a decent opponent. If one were to assign blame, more would go to the offense than the defense. Tyler Van Dyke is one of the best young quarterbacks in college football, but you wouldn’t know it from his PFF grade (60.5). Through the first five games, Van Dyke has battled Jurkovec-itis, a condition in which good quarterbacks struggle behind bad offensive lines. In addition, the tight ends and wide receivers have been pretty pedestrian, notching a collective 62.0 PFF grade.
Seven Miami players have caught at least 10 passes, led by TE Will Mallory’s 20. Mallory also leads in the team in receiving yards with 242, meaning that no Miami player averages 50 yards receiving per game. Translation - the Canes spread the ball around, but lack an elite go-to receiver.
Henry Parrish has a strong PFF grade (84.3) and averages a solid 4.8 yards per carry, but has only rushed for 378 yards on the season (75.6 yards per game). His backup, Thaddeus Franklin has run for 170 yards on 40 carries (4.3 yards per carry). This is not a great rushing team by any stretch of the imagination.
As a whole, Miami’s offense grades out much higher than Virginia Tech’s (74.8 vs. 62.6), but the actual results on the field have been similar.
Virginia Tech’s offense has actually been more efficient than Miami’s on scoring drives that started between their own 20 and opponent’s 30-yard line. The Hurricanes have required fewer plays to score when taking over inside their opponent’s 30 than have the Hokies, and they have been more successful overall in those situations (3.9 points per opportunity vs. 2.6 for VT). If the Hokies can avoid turnovers deep in their own end, they stand a good chance of keeping Miami’s offense in check.
Pick on the Linebackers
The talent, as usual, is there for Miami. Their last five recruiting classes have ranked between 8th and 27th in the nation, and the Hurricanes have consistently, since the dawn of time, brought in much higher rated players than Virginia Tech. Some years it matters, some years it doesn’t.
Miami’s best position group this year, top to bottom, is its defensive line. The starters have graded out at 83.3 per PFF, and there is a lot of depth. Eight of the top 20 tackers on the team are defensive linemen. Their matchup with the VT offensive line heavily favors the Hurricanes. Likewise, the matchup between Virginia Tech’s tight ends and receivers (58.1 PFF grade) and the Miami secondary (69.5 PFF grade) is advantage Hurricanes.
Miami’s linebackers are their weakest defensive unit (62.2 PFF grade), and I would expect Tyler Bowen to attack them with the tight ends (hello Dae’Quan Wright), via shallow crosses by the receivers, and by isolating Keyshawn King out of the backfield in space. For this plan of attack to work, the Hokies will need to keep the Canes honest, which means Malachi Thomas needs to have a solid day rushing the football (knock, knock, is anyone home on the offensive line?).
Past as Prologue?
Virginia Tech enters the game with an ELO rating 235 points lower than Miami’s. The closest past game, in terms of ELO difference, was the 2016 ACC Championship, in which VT entered with an ELO 237 points lower than Clemson and succumbed late, 42-35. The closest regular season game played at home was last year’s game with Notre Dame. The Hokies had an ELO 247 points lower than Notre Dame’s at kickoff, yet they held a 29-21 lead late in the fourth quarter before Jack Coan returned and led Notre Dame to a comeback win, 32-29. The Hokies basically gave that game away. Had Braxton Burmeister been remotely healthy, Tech probably wins the game going away, and maybe Justin Fuente is still the Hokies head coach. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, but just didn’t.
Gut Feelings
The model likes Virginia Tech to win 34-33, and I will agree with it again this week. Both teams enter on three-game losing streaks, but Virginia Tech is trending up, while Miami is trending down. The Hokies know this game is gettable. Alan Tisdale will make his season debut at will linebacker, but Dorian Strong is unlikely to play at cornerback. Armani Chatman, Tech’s other starting CB is also nicked up, though expected to start. There is a good chance Strong’s replacement, Brion Murray, will get torched once or twice on the outside, but will Miami actually convert those plays into touchdowns? Virginia Tech’s secondary is very thin at the moment, so any further injuries, specifically at CB, could turn this into a 45-24 Miami win (if Tech gets down and has to throw every down, forget about it). I expect Tech’s secondary to hold up well enough, with Tisdale the difference in the nickel package. He is longer and quicker than Dax, and can help eliminate the gap between the second and third levels in the deep middle part of the field.
Record outright: 4-2
Record against the spread: 3-3
Record over/under: 2-4