Projecting PFF Grades for Potential Starters Among Incoming Transfers
Although star power may be lacking, consistency should improve in 2025
In early March, I published an article analyzing the transfer portal’s impact on the Hokies.
Since then, the team has gone through spring practice, and another round of transfers in and out has taken place.
With the 2025 roster set, now is an appropriate time to drill down and try to quantify the level at which we should expect the new players to perform.
This article will focus only on starting caliber players. I identified seven such players in March, and to that total I will add Kody Huisman, a senior defensive tackle from North Dakota St.
Isaiah Spence, a wide receiver from Jacksonville St. is close, but he is probably a year away.
This analysis looks at PFF grades from the 2024 season and projects the grade range for each of the potential starters. Those projections are then compared with last year’s starters to determine whether or not the Hokies can expect an upgrade at the position.
Baseline figures
For a baseline range of expected performance, I looked at Hokie transfers in from G5 or FCS schools who started or played starter-level snaps during the Brent Pry era.
This is a pretty small group, comprising:
Da’Quan Felton (FCS)
Jaylin Lane (G5)
Sam Brumfield (G5)
Bhayshul Tuten (FCS)
Derrick Canteen (G5)
This sample size, although tiny, nonetheless reveals that the step up from FCS competition is massive compared to G5.
The two players who came from FCS teams saw their PFF grades decrease by 11.0 (Felton) and 17.2 points (Tuten) in their first year at Virginia Tech. Tuten’s grade increased 4.7 points year-over-year in 2024, while Felton’s declined another 8.0 points.
Meanwhile, the two players who came from G5 teams and started at the same position saw PFF grade deltas of +0.2 (Brumfield) and -1.5 (Lane). In short, if they improved a bit in their first season with the Hokies, then the increased talent of the opposition resulted in basically no net change to their PFF grades.
Derrick Canteen is a unique case because he didn’t start at Tech, but he played starter level snaps. He also played (primarily, although not exclusively) out of position at nickel.
Canteen’s grade declined by 9.3 points from his pre-Hokies season. Canteen elected to transfer again following the 2023 season. He landed at Cincinnati, where he again played nickel and notched starter level snaps. His PFF grade rebounded, ending up +2.7 points over his final G5 season, suggesting the position change was the primary reason for his grade decline in 2023.
Overall, that leaves us with the following ranges:
G5: -3 to +3 (Canteen’s 2024 numbers and a slight adjustment for the 2023 time he spent at cornerback) for players who play the same position and -9 to 0 for those who switch positions
FCS: -17 to -11
2025 expectations
Arias Nash and Kody Huisman come to Blacksburg from FCS programs. All the others played at G5 schools last year.
Right now, the expectation is that James Djonkam will switch from middle linebacker to edge, so his projected grades were penalized.
Isaiah Brown-Murray worked mostly at nickel during the spring, but his positional status is more up in the air. I would expect him to defend both in the slot and out wide (where he played last year), with the snap split dependent on the health and performance of the other cornerbacks.
Positional performance deltas
The theme among individual defenders in 2025 is lower ceiling, but higher floor. Inconsistent play doomed the 2024 Hokies to mediocrity. The incoming group of starting-caliber transfers appears set to resolve that issue.
Defensive Tackle
The Hokies will almost surely take a step back at defensive tackle, where they lose Aeneas Peebles (89.1) and Wilfried Pene (70.0). Huisman and Nash will likely grade out in the Pene neighborhood, around 70, give or take a few points.
The Hokies could potentially be as effective in the interior of the defensive line as they were last year if Kemari Copeland returns from injury and plays at a similar level, which is where he was (68.0) before he got hurt.
Kelvin Gilliam is coming off a strong first season in Blacksburg (69.5), so it is reasonable to expect the Hokies to go four deep this year at DT without any noticeable drop-off.
Last year’s fourth defensive tackle, Josh Fuga, graded out a notch lower at 61.6 than the other three tackles. Fuga was a bigger player who wasn’t a great fit for the Brent Pry system. The top four defensive tackles this season all appear to be good schematic fits.
Edge
Out on the edge, the Hokies will be replacing Antwaun Powell-Ryland (78.6) and Cole Nelson (63.7).
Here, the combination of Ben Bell and James Djonkam should be an upgrade, even if together they fail total less sacks than APR got last year.
The performance gap between APR and Nelson was not ideal, as it enabled opposing teams to scheme against APR. This combo also struggled to hold the edge against the run, with both grading out in the mid-60s on rush defense.
All indications are that the 2025 edge combo will be more balanced - strong against both the pass and the run.
Cornerback
Dante Lovett will be the #1 cornerback, so with Isaiah Brown-Murray the question is whether he will be #2 and play out wide or #3 and play against the slot receiver.
Reports out of spring practice are that he played mostly at nickel, but I suspect he’ll get a longer look outside in August, given the Hokies’ current crop of corners and their relative health.
At best, he can be expected to perform at roughly Mansoor Delane’s 2024 level out wide. In the slot, he might match the level of play from the 2024 nickels, which featured a rotating cast of characters, but a moderate decline is more likely.
Safety
The Cash-Ellis-Flowers combo at safety looks like a massive upgrade over Jaylen Jones (65.2) and Mose Phillips (58.5).
The three new safeties should all grade out in the low 70s, which from a delta perspective is so much better than 2024 that it alone might be the difference between a win and a loss.