Plethora of Receiving Options Poses Questions for Hokies

Will Virginia Tech have enough targets to go around?

Virginia Tech has one of the best returning wide receiver corps in the country.

However, compared to other teams, Virginia Tech hardly ever throws the football.

And if that does not have you scratching your head, consider this - only 63% of VT targets last year were directed toward wide receivers. Twenty percent went to the tight ends and 17% to the running backs.

Compare that to the ACC teams at or below Tech in terms of targets:

• Duke - 81% to wide receivers

• Syracuse - 70%

• Wake Forest - 88%

In fact, out of the 17 teams that will play football in the ACC in 2024, Virginia Tech was dead last in 2023 in wide receiver targets, with 203. The conference leader, Miami, targeted its wideouts 347 times.

And yet, no Hokie wideouts left via the portal, all the draft eligible players elected to come back, and Tech signed another group of highly touted high school receivers.

Clearly Fontel Mines is deserving of all those raises he has been racking up.

That said, will we see a similar spread in 2024? Probably not.

Redirecting targets

Despite having so many players returning from last year’s squad, the passing distribution could change significantly in 2024.

Tight end Dae’Quan Wright was a major portal departure, and his targets are unlikely to be replaced by Nick Gallo or even a committee of players at that position. Rather, those targets will probably go to a healthy Ali Jennings.

All else held constant, hat would still leave Jennings in a distant third place in targets on the team. But Jennings is also likely to take some targets that would have otherwise gone to his fellow receivers.

Compare his percent caught last year in the small sample size to the top three returning receivers. Jennings caught 71% of balls that targeted him.

Da’Quan Felton, Jaylin Lane, and Stephen Gosnell were between 52% and 64%. I would expect a lot of the low percentage, early season throws to Felton (e.g., deep balls) to be replaced by higher percentage throws to Jennings (10-15 yards downfield).

Jennings will get his opportunities, but given his and Stephen Gosnell’s injury histories, it makes sense to split snaps between those two more evenly than what will likely be the case at other receiver positions.

That said, Ayden Greene is in line for more targets than he got last year. Whether that happens organically or as a result of an injury to another player, the likelihood is that he will get more than 20 targets this year. Simply absorbing the targets that went to Da’Wain Lofton last year (11) would nearly get him there.

Finally, Tech fans should expect a decline in RB targets, most of which were check downs when no one was open down the field. That will mean more opportunities for the receivers.

Slices aside, will the actual pie increase in size?

Among all 2024 ACC teams, only Syracuse and Wake Forest threw the ball less than Virginia Tech in 2023.

Duke, which played most of the season with an inexperienced backup quarterback, matched Virginia Tech in targets.

Given the hit or miss nature of last year’s offense, and the run-first mentality, it is not hard to imagine Tech moving up to the middle of the conference in targets.

How would the Hokies do that?

1. Better offense leads to more plays

2. Healthy receivers + more experienced Kyron Drones = more passes and less designed QB runs

3. Teams load the box in an attempt to stop the run and force the Hokies to throw the ball more

All three possibilities are reasonable, if not entirely likely. Option #1 is the most likely, as it merely requires a more consistent offense than last year, and it is difficult to imagine that not being the case.

Options #2 and #3 are dependent on the offensive line. If those guys consistently open up big holes for the running backs, the thinking goes, Drones will carry the ball less and teams will stack the box, leading to more throws.

The offensive line will probably be better this year, but perhaps not enough to cause a material change in the run/pass ratio. And it is also possible that if the Hokies are running the ball well, Tyler Bowen will dial up even more running plays.

What should we expect?

All of this is to say that Tech will have increased flexibility this year. Depth is better at every pass catching position, the offensive line appears to have taken a step forward, and Kyron Drones might be an All-ACC quarterback.

While there is no guarantee that Drones will throw the ball more in 2024, Tech will be able to win games in different ways.

If an opponent takes away the run, Tech will have the players to shift into a pass-heavy offense. If the run is there, Bowen will surely be content to feed the running backs.

In the end, Tech is unlikely to rise above eighth in the conference in targets. Given the makeup of the roster, the culture within the program, and the offense’s propensity for big plays, that should still be sufficient to keep everyone happy.