Opportunity Served on a Black & Gold Platter
Two teams desperate for a win prepare to square off inside Lane Stadium
If algorithms could talk, those behind the predicted points on the gamecard below would say something like:
Yes, we know, the humans think Virginia Tech is going to win a close game at home, but Wake Forest is a much better team!
When I built the new model this year, my goal was to set up this tension, then let the model work out an expected result based on data from prior games.
Some models build in a specific home field advantage, usually two to three points. This year’s XGBoost model does not.
Any benefit a team gets for playing at home is intuited by the model through the pregame win percentage and the spread.
The result, this week, is that those two aligned inputs get trimmed a bit by the model, which is essentially telling the humans, “You are under-rating Wake Forest.”
While that is obviously not something most Hokie fans want to hear, the result is a difference in predicted points that is measured in decimals, not whole numbers.
In plain English - prepare for a nail-biter.
How the Hokies win
Under Dave Clawson, Wake Forest has been known for its prolific offenses. However, the 2023 Wake offense is rather pedestrian.
How pedestrian, you ask?
The Deacons’ EPA/play (0.08), a measure of offensive efficiency, is lower than Virginia Tech’s (0.11).
The Hokies’ offense is many things. Efficient is not one of them.
So, that one advanced metric suggests a slog of a game. Is it an outlier?
In a word, no.
EPA/play pretty much speaks for all the other advanced metrics that most impact the way the game will be played.
Wake Forest’s offense has comparatively high success rates on rushing and passing plays, but has demonstrated low explosiveness. Translation: they generally have to string together long drives to put points on the board.
As a result, we should expect Chris Marve to call a more aggressive game on defense for the Hokies. That means trading the additional risk of allowing a big play in order to increase the defense’s chances of getting off the field quickly.
If Bud Foster was calling the defense, this would be a week in which he had his guys sell out to stop the run. It may not be to that extreme, but Marve will be thinking along those same lines.
Wake has demonstrated some explosiveness in the pass game, but the Deacs are not the sort of team that is built to push the ball down the field against a secondary like Virginia Tech’s.
As long as the Hokies are sound in the backend and do not have any major busts in coverage, they should be fine from a Jimmies and Joes perspective. Wake has good receivers, but quarterback Mitch Griffis is the limiting factor in the passing game.
On offense, Tech should be able to hold its own in the trenches. Wake has a bit of a propensity to allow explosive run plays. In fact, their rushing explosiveness allowed (1.13) is nearly as high the Hokies’ (1.16).
The difference is that with Bhayshul Tuten and Kyron Drones, Tech is much better able to exploit this defensive weakness. The Hokies’ rushing explosiveness (0.90) has bested that of Wake (0.79) this season, and that even includes the two games in which Grant Wells was the starting QB and the Hokies could not run the ball to save their lives.
When Tech does throw the ball, expect a lot of short passes (e.g., screens, RPOs, slants), with anything in the medium range being fast developing (e.g., posts and seam routes).
The Hokies will likely take a few deep shots if they can establish the run, and the receivers should be able to generate some separation in such circumstances.
It would go a long way toward securing the victory if Tech could haul in one or two of these deep throws. I would set the over/under on 30+ yard completions for the Hokies at 1.5.
Matchups to watch when the Hokies have the ball
VT Slot vs. WF Nickel
This might sound strange, but the sum of Tech’s offensive parts has thus far outplayed the higher grading Wake Forest defensive parts.
That reality puts the onus on the game plan Tyler Bowen draws up this week, as Virginia Tech does not have many individual matchups to isolate and exploit.
The most favorable matchup is slot receiver Jaylin Lane going up against Evan Slocum. And that is no slight on Slocum, who has graded out at 68.2 this year.
Lane, however, has been better, earning a 73.3 offensive grade and scoring above 70 in every game in which he was healthy.
Slocum’s tackling has been very hit and miss this year. Twice he notched a tackling grade less than 30 (Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech) and twice he has finished above 70 (Elon and Old Dominion).
Against higher level competition, he is prone to missing tackles, although he held his own in that department last week against Clemson, finishing with a tackling grade of 62.6
Whether it is on screens or quick slants, look for Tech to try to get Lane the ball in space where, given enough opportunities, he should be expected to turn at least one short completion into a big gain via yards after the catch.
VT Tackles vs. WF Outside Rushers
Wake Forest is likely to test both of Tech’s offensive tackles on Saturday. Chaplin and Clements have been a little below average this year, and they will be facing two guys in Kendron Wayman (74.4) and Jasheen Davis (78.2) who are each having a great year for the Demon Deacons.
To negate Wake’s advantage on the edge, look for more inside zone than has been the norm of late. When Tech looks to throw deep, it will most likely come off of play action or a gadget play similar to last week’s flea flicker.
Third and long is where the Hokies really miss Grant Wells. Given the potential for a strong rush off the edges, the Hokies are likely to run more draws and screens than usual.
Matchups to watch when Wake Forest has the ball
WF O-line vs. VT Front Seven
Tech is an easy scout these days. No matter what, keep running the ball.
Wake is strongest on the left part of their offensive line, and that is likely where most of their runs will go. Expect that to be doubly the case when Keyshawn Burgos is lined up at the End position on that side.
To counter this advantage for Wake, JC Price might elect to play Antwaun Powell-Ryland and Cole Nelson more on that side.
The second part of the chess game will involve how Wake uses formations and motion to choose which Tech linebackers it wants to attack. In short yardage situations, the Deacs would probably prefer to run at Keonta Jenkins, whose tackling grade this year is just 39.4.
Alan Tisdale and Keli Lawson have tackled much better, but their gap fits have been so bad that every run in their direction is a potential homerun.
WF Slot vs. VT Star/Nickel
Ke’Shawn Williams is likely to see a lot of action in the slot for Wake. He has graded out at 73.0 this year, but he has been wildly inconsistent (high grade of 89.8 against Vanderbilt and low grade of 55.7 against Georgia tech).
Williams will have an advantage no matter who the Hokies line up opposite him.
Both Keonta Jenkins and Caleb Woodson have struggled at the Star linebacker position. Derrick Canteen could probably neutralize Williams, but he is likely to see more time on the outside, at least in the first half, when Jalen Stroman will serve out the rest of his targeting suspension from last week (Mansoor Delane is expected to play free safety in Stroman’s absence).
Despite fairly high individual grades across the Wake Forest offensive line, the Demon Deacons give up a lot of sacks. Look for Wake to target Williams on quick outs when he is isolated against Jenkins or Woodson.
Given how badly Jenkins has been tackling this year, Tech may want to play Woodson more on Saturday, at least in the first half.
Final thoughts
Virginia Tech has a great opportunity to win this weekend. The game is at home against an opponent that has lost its last two and does not have an especially impressive win on its resume.
Brent Pry has continued Justin Fuente’s focus on going 1-0, but the reality is that Tech can, and probably should, go 2-0, if we zoom out to include the Thursday night game against Syracuse.
Win them both, and the Hokies would travel to Louisville in early November with a 4-4 record overall, 3-1 in the ACC.
The ebbs and flows of this 2023 season suggest a package deal similar to Rutgers and Marshall: the Hokies will either win both of these home games or lose them both.
That puts even more of an onus on getting the W this week.