Opportunity Knocks
Tech travels to Raleigh seeking to win for the first time in five games
When the 2022 schedule was first released, most Virginia Tech fans circled the Thursday night game at NC State as the toughest challenge. Now, it’s gameday, and the theme going into the game comes from Paul McCartney and Wings:
Someone knockin' at the door
Somebody ringin' the bell
Someone's knockin' at the door
Somebody's ringin' the bell
Do me a favor
Open the door, and let 'em in
NC State’s star quarterback is out for the year with an injury, and the backup has looked pretty pedestrian. In their last time out, the Hokies missed a great opportunity to beat Miami and turn around their season. November suddenly looks more challenging, with Duke and Liberty playing good football. Still, if the Hokies could upset the Wolfpack, one would have to like their chances of winning at least five games, with the Liberty and Duke matchups deciding Tech’s bowl fate.
Throw Haymakers
Normally when I make the preview viz, I include only the first string players for the position unit PFF grades, unless I know one of them is injured and unlikely to play. This week I changed my approach with regard to Virginia Tech’s tight ends and wide receivers. The depth chart suggests the following four players will start:
Kaleb Smith
Da’Wain Lofton
Jaden Blue
Nick Gallo
However, Brent Pry has made a few interesting comments since the Miami game, and they lead me to believe that the depth chart might be a decoy. Paraphrasing, those points were:
Tech needs to play its most explosive players more, and get them all on the field at the same time
The two TE, line-it-up-and-pound-it-down-their-throat approach is not working (left unsaid, that is mainly because VT doesn’t have the players yet to execute on that strategy, as I detailed here)
The offense is too easy to defend and not creative enough
Based on past results, the model predicts a 37-24 NC State win. With Wolfpack starting QB (and preseason ACC Player of the Year) Devin Leary out for the season due to injury, Vegas expects a lower score, but the 13.5 point spread aligns with the model (which does not factor in spread or over/under). Overall, there is no reason to think the Hokies can hang with the Wolfpack if they play like they have all season - inept offense, lots of penalties, lots of turnovers, defense gets worn down and gives up lots of points in the second half.
All that leads me to believe that Pry & Co. might go with a new, old approach (new for this staff, old in that the strategic formula was coined by Justin Fuente as “throw to score, run to win”). That would involve starting the following four wide receivers - big (6’2” or above) playmakers all - and throwing the ball 75% of the time in the first half:
Kaleb Smith (6’2”, 222 lbs.)
Christian Moss (6’3”, 194 lbs.)
Dae’Quan Wright (6’4”, 231 lbs.)
Connor Blumrick (6’5”, 222 lbs.)
The Wolfpack are smallish in the secondary - Tyler Baker-Williams, the starting nickel, is the biggest of the bunch at 6’0”, 205 lbs. Rather than try to be a power running team (which won’t work given Tech’s porous offensive line and NC State’s stout front six), be a power throwing team. Bully those smaller DBs. Make them contest jump balls. See if they can tackle bigger players in space.
To be clear, although such a change would prioritize size and athleticism, it would not improve run blocking. Kaleb Smith is the constant, and he has a track record of solid run blocking, but otherwise, such a shuffling of players would probably hurt run blocking.
The numbers do not suggest that Virginia Tech will be able to block NC State and establish a run game. There is also no reason to believe the Hokies would be able to throw the ball with the usual starting pass catchers. Making the proposed changes would open up the passing game. In particular, it would stretch the defense and likely lead to more yards after the catch.
Playing Moss and Wright over Lofton and Gallo, by the numbers, appears to be a no brainer. Of course, that assumes everyone is healthy. The Blumrick vs. Blue decision is tougher. Blue’s targeted QB Rating is significantly higher than everyone other than Wright. Blumrick, however, gains 4.6 yards more after each reception than Blue. With the goal being more big plays (and tougher matchups for the defense), Blumrick should start, and Blue should work in later. The Wolfpack are solid across the board on defense. Their one weakness is tackling, where they have registered a 57.2 PFF grade through seven games (VT’s grade, for the sake of comparison, is 81.0). Virginia Tech can play to this strength by getting the ball to their best, big athletes in space.
Load the Box
I expect the aggressive game plan to carry over when NC State has the ball. Backup QB Jack Chambers is not much of a threat in the passing game, but he can run a little. I suspect the Tech defense will look a lot like Bud Foster’s pre-2004 alignment, with Chamarri Connor lining up in the box on most plays, almost like a fourth linebacker.
Lost in a lot of the discussion leading up to this game is the fact that NC State’s offense, even with Devin Leary, has been pretty pedestrian this season. Against teams with a pulse (e.g., not Charleston Southern and UConn), the Pack have struggled to score:
East Carolina - 21 points
Texas Tech - 27
Clemson - 20
Florida St. - 19
Syracuse - 9
In four games against P5 competition, NC State is averaging only 18.8 points per game (two of those games were on the road against ranked opponents and 1.5 were sans Devin Leary). In comparison, Tech has averaged 18.0 points per game in five games against P5 teams (two were on the road, but no opponent was ranked at the time of the game).
Virginia Tech’s defense is better than Texas Tech’s, but nowhere near as good as Clemson’s. Factor in a backup QB for NC State and Tech’s proclivity for stupid penalties and inopportune turnovers, and I think we should expect the Wolfpack to score between 24 and 27 points. Limit the turnovers and penalties, and the Hokies could hold them under 20.
Even with Devin Leary, NC State’s offense has been a real grind-it-out kind of unit. On scoring drives that started between their own 20 and 45-yard line, they have actually required more plays to put points on the board than Virginia Tech’s moribund offense. Remember, every extra play is an opportunity for Tech to force a turnover, which at some point they are bound to do.
If the Hokies could get out to a quick lead and shut down the Wolfpack running game, we could see highly touted freshman quarterback MJ Morris. In fact, that is one of my biggest concerns - a sort of Tyler Buchner in reverse situation, in which the change is made and all of sudden the offense opens up and stresses a thin Hokie secondary.
Gut Feelings
As I have hinted throughout the article, I disagree with the model this week. I expect a lower scoring, closer game, but ultimately, one with the same outcome. I think Tech will move the ball, and with more consistency than their play this year would lead us to expect. However, VT’s offensive points per opportunity (2.6) has been consistency atrocious all year, and I think they will turn too many touchdowns into field goals to win. Conversely, Virginia Tech’s 4.3 on the defensive version of that same metric tells us to expect more NC State touchdowns than field goals.
Tonight won’t be a worse case scenario as far as mistakes, but Tech will still make its fair share. Overall, it feels like a 24-19 kind of game, in favor of NC State. The tell will be short VT field goals. If Tech kicks two field goals from 30 yards or less, they will lose. And sadly, that is what I expect to happen. They’ll move the ball between the twenties, then the inability to run combined with compressed passing lanes will equate to lots of Will Ross appearances.
That said, the Hokies know they have another golden opportunity - a chance to go on the road, play a ranked team with a backup QB in a raucous environment on national television, and turn their season around. November is only as tough as the Hokies will make it look in this game. Both teams really need to win. The Pack will play Wake Forest and UNC in November, as well as a tricky road game at Louisville. A loss to Virginia Tech would make a 7-5 season likely for them, and 6-6 would suddenly become entirely possible. On the flip side, a win for Virginia Tech would create some positive momentum and increase the odds of making a bowl game. A loss would put the Hokies at 2-6, needing to run the table in November just to become bowl eligible. I do not expect the Hokies to win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tech ended up surprising me in this game (pun very much intended - expect the unexpected after a bye week). They’ve been due for a while now…
Record outright: 4-3
Record against the spread: 3-4
Record over/under: 2-5