Opportunities with High Level, Non-QB Offensive Recruits
Opportunities with High Level, Non-QB Offensive Recruits
Where else Virginia Tech might look on offense to compensate for the lack of available elite dual threat quarterbacks
Last week, I wrote this to sum up Virginia Tech’s run of great quarterbacks in the 2000s:
Can you think of any school in history with so such success in recruiting QBs for so long? Over the course of a decade, which not coincidentally overlapped with the peak-Beamer years, Virginia Tech signed four highly-rated dual threat quarterbacks and trotted them out there, one after the other, year-after-year. Then it all dried up. Sort of.
I chewed on that for a couple days and could not come up with another school that pulled in that much quarterback talent over the span of a decade, so I went looking. Here is what I came up with from 2002 to 2011:
The above list of 5-star dual threat QB commits is from 2002 to 2011, so that excludes high 4-stat Bryan Randall (2001) and Michael Vick (1998), as well as Logan Thomas (high 4-star, 2009, but technically a pro-style QB). Even excluding those three, VT still finishes tied for second with Florida State, LSU, and Ohio St. Keeping in mind that Cam Newton won the Heisman only after transferring to Auburn and Jeff Driskel never quite lived up to his rating, the best comparison to VT is Ohio State. The Buckeyes landed Terrelle Pryor and Braxton Miller during the same 10 years that the Hokies secured commitments from Marcus Vick and Tyrod Taylor.
Elite dual threat quarterbacks did not just disappear from Virginia. They disappeared everywhere. From 2012 to 2021 (in 2022, the database did not delineate between dual threat and pro-style quarterbacks), there were only eight such QB recruits nationwide. As a result, Alabama has landed as many elite dual threat quarterbacks since 2002 as Virginia Tech, and the Hokies haven’t gotten one since Tyrod Taylor in 2007.
While this particular flavor of elite quarterback has disappeared over the past decade, Virginia cranked out elite recruits (all positions) from 2012-2022 at nearly the same rate it did from 2002-2011, so there must be some options at other positions. Before I dive into that, let’s review the numbers for all elite players.
There were 337 elite high school recruits (rating >= 0.95) nationwide from 2002 through 2011. Of those, 33 were from Virginia (9.8%), the same number as Pennsylvania, and just slightly less than North Carolina (35). Overall, Virginia Tech signed 2 of the 337 elite recruits during this period (Marcus Vick and Tyrod Taylor). Leading the way among universities were:
USC (38)
Florida (30)
Florida St. (28)
Texas (22)
Ohio St. (19)
From 2012 through 2022, Virginia produced 34 out of 374 elite high school recruits (9.1%), again just behind North Carolina (37), but well ahead of Pennsylvania (26). During this period, the Hokies reeled in just one such recruit (Kendall Fuller), the same number as programs like Iowa, Arkansas, Michigan St., TCU, and Pittsburgh. The top 5 programs during this period were:
Alabama (50)
Georgia (42)
Ohio St. (29)
Texas A&M (24)
USC (23)
From 2002 through 2011, the top 5 schools by number of elite recruits signed comprised 40.7% of all such recruits. The concentration of talent increased from 2012 through 2022, with the top 5 schools signing 44.9% of elite high school recruits nationwide. But if they are less dispersed now than they were then, elite high school recruits are still going to schools other than Virginia Tech at similar rates. Whether Brent Pry and his staff can change that long-term trajectory, the opportunity is there. However, the idea that Tech is going to start pulling in these type of players in any serious numbers is wishful thinking.
Ok, so if the Hendon Hooker/Kyron Drones type of QB (low- to mid-level 4-star, dual threat, out-of-state) is about the best the Hokies can hope for, where might they make up the difference between such players and the 2000s elite QBs that led Tech to greatness? There are three possible positions: running backs, offensive line, and pass catchers (WRs and TEs). Let’s take those one at a time and see what we can learn.
Running Backs
Virginia Tech signed six of the 64 4-or 5- star high school running backs that came out of its mid-Atlantic footprint (Pennsylvania, Maryland, DC, Virginia, and North Carolina) between 2002 and 2022, but none since Shai McKenzie in 2014. Out of those six, four we busts:
George Bell (2004, NC, knee injuries)
Elan Lewis (2005, VA, weight issues)
Drew Harris (2012, PA, academics, never played at VT)
Shai McKenzie (2014, PA, knee injuries and disciplinary issues)
Before you think, 0 for 2 on Pennsylvania running backs, if we were to broaden the aperture to include the 2001 class, it would be 1 for 3 via Kevin Jones, the #1 recruit in the nation that year. The two running backs that did work out were both Virginians: Ryan Williams (2008) and David Wilson (2009).
NC State got the most commitments (seven), followed by Virginia Tech and Penn St. with six each. Most of the running backs of this caliber and in this region that went on to very good college careers attended either Penn St. (also plenty of misses) or Georgia. Devyn Ford didn’t do much at Penn St., but he was a Virginia kid, and the Hokies recruited him hard. Same with TreVeyon Henderson of Ohio St., who has been dynamic in his first two seasons in Columbus. Neither player showed much interest in the Hokies.
Most members of the class of 2024 were born in 2006. They didn’t grow up watching Ryan Williams and David Wilson in orange and maroon. In fact, if they watched Tech, they generally saw mediocre teams with mediocre (at best) talent in the backfield. There were eight 4-5 star running backs from the region in the class of 2022. Tech did not sign any of them. Most years there will not be that many, but one has to figure that the Hokies will nab a 4-star RB soon. They’re certainly due. But I wouldn’t count on getting a 5-star any time soon. And that’s the thing - Tech hit on the two highest ranked commits (Williams and Wilson). All the misses came among the lower ranked 4-stars.
Pass Catchers
Virginia Tech signed 6 out of the 117 highly rated pass catchers (WRs and TEs) from the mid-Atlantic from 2002 to 2022. That number is far behind Penn St. (17), North Carolina (11), and Maryland (10). Two of the VT signees were converted from a backfield position (DJ Coles and Joel Caleb). Coles was a multi-year contributor, but Caleb, who eventually moved to running back, was a bust. Two other VT signees were tight ends (James Mitchell and Benji Gosnell), and the remaining two were true wide receivers (Eddie Royal and Tre Turner). The Hokies hit on both of the true receivers, as well as Mitchell (Gosnell redshirted in 2022, but has already torn ligaments in both knees).
There are plenty of highly ranked pass catchers in the mid-Atlantic, but traditionally, the Hokies have brought very few to Blacksburg. More common were 3-star WRs and guys who, for whatever reason, flew under the radar, spent a year at one of the military academies, redshirted, then by their junior or senior year (at age 23-24), were ready to be major contributors (e.g., Ernest Wilford). The transfer portal seems uniquely set to play the role that Hargrave Military Academy once played in developing Virginia Tech pass catchers. However, Tech can and should win more one-on-one battles for highly rated guys coming out of high school in the mid-Atlantic.
Offensive Line
Similar to the situation with WRs and TEs, Virginia Tech has struggled to sign highly rated offensive linemen, inking only 4 out of 111 from the mid-Atlantic between 2002 and 2022. At 22 signees, Penn St. netted nearly 20% of the available highly ranked linemen. Maryland was a distant second with 11, and 5 of those came from Washington DC. I think the disparities between the kind of o-line talent the Hokies have brought in over the last two decades and programs like PSU and UMD really reflects poorly on Tech’s offensive line coaches during that era. Penn St. is a great program and a lot of their o-line recruits were from Pennsylvania, but Maryland hasn’t been any good since the Ralph Friedgen era (and they were not world beaters then), which ended in 2010. And yet, 8 of their 11 highly ranked linemen committed after Friedgen was forced out.
The big question here is, can Joe Rudolph do better than his predecessors? The early returns are solid. In 2022, the Hokies signed the fifth highest rated offensive line class since 2002, and that was largely before Rudolph came on board (plenty of credit goes to the previous staff, but Pry and Rudolph also made some late moves).
Only twice (2008 and 2019) have the offensive line recruits in a single VT high school recruiting class had an average rating greater than 0.87, which is a high 3-star level grade. Vance Vice’s last two complete recruiting classes were quite poor - 0.8380 and 0.8327, both of which correspond to the low 3-star range (players unlikely to become solid starters). And the 2019 class is also a bit of a mirage, as two of the big signees from that year, Doug Nester and Bryan Hudson, transferred out (to West Virginia and Louisville, respectively).
Takeaways
There is a significant opportunity to make recruiting inroads with highly ranked pass catchers and offensive line recruits in the mid-Atlantic. The Hokies have not done a good job of landing these sort of players over the last 20 years, even though they have been plentiful. Therefore, it should not be a surprise that Brent Pry invested so much money in bringing Joe Rudolph to Blacksburg and keeping Fontel Mines there. Both are making (former offensive coordinator) Brad Cornelsen-level money, or more.
In the glory years, uber-dynamic Hokie quarterbacks made up for average wide receivers and offensive linemen. Unfortunately, those sorts of players have gone from rare to extremely rare. To build a capable offense, Virginia Tech will need to be more balanced in recruiting offensive players. The days of surrounding a 5-star QB with a bunch of 3-stars and winning 10-11 games are gone. To win now, Tech needs to fill it’s roster with high 3-star and low 4-star talent (ratings in the 0,87 to 0.92 range). Then, when they do snag a 5-star player (or two!), he stands a chance of taking the Hokies into the stratosphere.