Once Again, The Sky is Falling

Virginia Tech has faced such situations before, and responded well

Four and a half inches of rain and a million injuries ago, things were looking up in Hokie Nation.

Oh, the difference a week makes.

But we have been here before. Vanilla play calls (to the untrained eye), offensive line woes, youth at all the wrong places, cries (pleas?) for a mobile QB to come save the team.

At some point it’s like a dashboard dummy light popping on in an old car - comforting in its own sort of way.

As any classic car owner can tell you, the lack of lit dummy lights doesn’t bring relief so much as it does worry that the dummy lights themselves are on the fritz.

To borrow a few lines from David Crosby:

If I had ever been here before
I would probably know just what to do
Don't you?
If I had ever been here before on another time around the wheel
I would probably know just how to deal
With all of you

So, before I turn to Saturday’s game with Rutgers, let’s review how Tech has, in the past, gotten itself out of jams similar to the one it is in now.

Get out of jail free cards

There is no trade deadline in college football because there are no trades. And there is no waiver wire either.

The Hokies will have to dance with the one(s) they brought. But there are some tried and true ways to make that work:

Start a mobile quarterback in place of a pocket passer

Applicable years: 2007, 2008, 2019

No one thought that Tyrod Taylor or Hendon Hooker were better passers, either. Arm-talent wise, they might not have been. But their ability to run forced opposing defenses to designate a spy on many plays, which gave the Hokies number advantages they would not have otherwise enjoyed.

The results were offenses that all of a sudden started to click. We’re not talking 0 to 60, but 0 to a consistent 30, and often that is good enough.

Interestingly, it’s not like Sean Glennon and Ryan Willis were bad QBs. They drove the fanbase crazy at times due to their “decision making”, but in reality both were fringe pros stuck behind bad offensive lines.

Decision making tends to fail those who get hit by 275 lb. defensive linemen play after play after play…

Turn up the heat on defense

Applicable years: late Bud Foster era (2014-2019)

Due to injury, there is inexperience in the secondary. The easiest way to keep the opposition from exploiting those weaknesses is to not give them time to do so.

All quarterbacks who throw bad interceptions generally share one thing in common: lack of pass protection.

The Hokies have not generated much heat from the front four this season. In the days of yore, under Bud Foster, it would be about this time when television viewers would start hearing the words “exotic” and “blitz” uttered together repeatedly throughout broadcasts.

Don’t trust the young guys in coverage? Blitz ‘em.

Want to confuse the opposing quarterback? Blitz off the corner and roll the coverage.

Tisdale and Lawson jersey sales just so-so? Blitz ‘em. At the same time.

You get the point. Beamer didn’t title his first book Turn Up the Wick for nothing.

Win the hidden yardage battle

Applicable years: Since the dawn of time, or at least 1987

Sure, it was great when the Hokies could reasonably expect the special teams units to outscore the Tech offense (not to mention the other team), but it’s been 25 years since that was the case. Besides, it isn’t necessary.

The Bryan Stinespring-era offenses rarely gained much yardage, but the Hokies still put up points because the offense often got the ball in great field position.

Short drives netted three points, medium drives resulted in seven. Long drives were seldom necessary, so on the occasion that they were, it was ok to just play conservatively and punt the ball away (to flip field position). If your offense cannot drive the length of the field, don’t ask it to.

Winning the field position battle is only partially a Jimmies and Joes deal. At its highest level, field position is the result of a sound strategy that aligns all three phases of the game.

Brent Pry calls this strategy “complimentary football”. You can bet he has been stressing its importance all week with the coaches and players alike.

One can throw a 20-yard pass or gain 20 yards on an exchange of punts following three-and-outs. The latter is not as efficient as the former, but it is nearly as effective.

What to do about Rutgers

When the game kicks off on Saturday afternoon, Rutgers will not be the best team that Virginia Tech has faced this year, but the Hokies will be the stiffest test thus far for the Scarlet Knights.

If the model’s score prediction is correct, the main driver will be Rutgers’ strong success rate on running plays (40%) and Virginia Tech’s very poor defensive success rate against the run (46%).

If those two trends continue, and Rutgers runs the ball at least 55% of the time (compared to 65% on the season), you can stick a fork in the Hokies.

They’ll be done.

But for that to happen, Rutgers will have to run through a lot of Hokie defenders. Expect Chris Marve’s defense to load up in the box to try to shut down the run.

If there was ever a week to play the Star full-time and move Derrick Canteen or Mansoor Delane to safety (opposite Jalen Stroman), this is it.

Rutgers has good advanced stat numbers on passing plays, but with such a high run rate, clearly the Scarlet Knights prefer to run the ball to set up the pass.

One thing to watch for is selective aggressiveness from the Rutgers offense. The difference in per play EPA between running plays (0.10) and passing plays (0.36), in combination with success rates north of 40% for both, suggests a willingness (and ability) to throw the ball once the Scarlet Knights cross midfield.

It reminds me of how Scot Loeffler called Virginia Tech’s offense in 2014 at Ohio St. When backed up deep in his own end, Loeffler called lots of runs. If the Hokies got a few first downs, he got more aggressive. Otherwise, a punt was not a bad play.

The Rutgers offense is not a juggernaut, and it is heavily dependent on the run. An early Tech lead could do wonders, jolting the Scarlet Knights out of their comfort zone.

If the Hokies win the game…

…most of the following will be true:

• VT turned in one of its best rushing performances under Tyler Bowen (> 150 yards)

• Blitzes got home, and the constant pressure rattled Rutgers QB Gavin Wimsatt

• The Hokies won the hidden yardage battle, decisively

There has been little talk thus far in the season about the Tech special teams units. For the most part, they have been outstanding.

Peter Moore looks like his old self after struggling some in the second half of 2022. The field goal unit has been a well oiled machine, and the coverage teams have done their job well.

All of that is giving the Hokies a decided advantage in hidden yards, a trend that should continue this week.

The Hokies enter the game with a +9 net advantage in yards on an exchange of possessions.

If the Tech offense has struggled despite an average starting field position of it’s own 43-yard line, imagine how ugly things could get if Rutgers is able to consistently pin the Hokies back deep in their own end.

On the flip side, consider what a huge impact a couple of turnovers forced by the defense in Rutgers territory could have on the eventual outcome.

Just one more reason to expect aggressive defensive calls out of Chris Marve.

Ultimately, the numbers suggest that in order to pull the upset, Tech has to take it to Rutgers in all three phases. The data do not support the notion of a conservative game plan leading to victory.

At the beginning of every season, journalists and fans alike tend to go down the schedule, picking out likely wins and losses.

A mediocre team like Virginia Tech can make a mess of such an effort. They will win games they shouldn’t and lose games they shouldn’t

After a solid victory in week 1, the sky is once again falling. Tech has a history of raising the roof in such situations.

That alone makes Saturday’s game worthy of anticipation and your utmost attention.