Misaligned Hokies Lose Fourth Straight
The roster is not built to play this kind of football, and it shows. Despite 17 Miami penalties and a slew of Hurricane injuries, the Hokies come up short in their comeback bid.
Note: Data is sourced from CFDB and ESPN, except where noted. All PFF grades are preliminary, and current as of 5:00 a.m. Monday morning (October 17). These grades can, and likely will, shift a bit, but the broader takeaways should hold true.
After an exciting Saturday of college football, I was up early Sunday evaluating the orthodontic devices the dentist has recommended for my kids. Reading about how these devices work to align the jaw got me thinking about the alignment issues within the Hokie football program, specifically between the roster and the types of schemes the staff is attempting to run.
For example, the Hokies like to run a lot of plays with three receivers, one tight end, and one running back on the field. However, they only have one ACC starting caliber receiver (Kaleb Smith). Saturday’s mix of guys not getting open, and guys dropping the ball when they did manage to get some separation, have been themes of the 2022 season. How did we get here, and what does the coaching staff need to do to fix it?
Rewind to Yesteryear
Since 1987, Virginia Tech has had three great receiver groups (defined as three or more fringe NFL guys on one team) roll through the program. The first group played from 2004-07 and included:
Eddie Royal
Josh Morgan
Justin Harper
David Clowney (he was a year ahead of the others, graduating in 2006)
Josh Hyman did not play in the NFL, so I left him off the list, but he was actually the first to reach his full potential. He was a top target in 2004 before moving to a backup role in the following years.
During that stretch from 2004-07, Tech went 10-3, 11-2, 10-3, and 11-3, with two BCS bowl game appearances. This was the best receiver room in school history.
The second best receiver group immediately followed the first group, with their peak period spanning from 2009 to 2011. This group included:
Jarrett Boykin
Danny Coale
Marcus Davis
DJ Coles and Dyrell Roberts were high school running backs, and while each had his moments during those years, neither played in the NFL. Marcus Davis, at 6’4”, 225 lbs., was one of the best looking athletes to ever play at Tech. However, he was a converted quarterback who struggled in the WR1 role after Boykin and Coale graduated (the big numbers bely many drops, misrun routes, etc.). He did get drafted, though, and enjoyed a short NFL career. Boykin and Coale are the names everyone remembers, and while they were great Hokies, they were not particularly sought after recruits. They were developed, patiently, and by the time they were upperclassmen, they were legit stars. From 2009 to 2011, Tech went 10-3, 11-3, and 11-3, with two BCS bowl game appearances.
The final group was the Isaiah Ford, Cam Phillips, and Bucky Hodges trio that starred from 2014-2016. Things really came together for them when Jerrod Evans and Justin Fuente came to Blacksburg in 2016. However, I do want to point out how fortunate Tech was that all three avoided the injury bug that year because there was absolutely nothing behind them. We’re talking, FCS non-starter type players who barely saw the field for VT. During their time together, Tech went 7-6, 7-6, and 10-4.
Combined, those three sets of receiver groups played together for 10 years at Virginia Tech. The other 25 years (from 1987 through 2021) featured some really good teams, including the 1999 team that played for the National Championship. That team was mainly a two-man show (Andre Davis and Ricky Hall) at receiver. In 2002 and 2003, the Hokies really only had one good receiver (Ernest Wilford). Still, Tech won at a high level, going 11-1, 11-1, 8-4, 10-4, and 8-5 from 1999 through 2003. How did they do it? They played to their strengths.
In 2003, the Hokies were loaded at every offensive position except receiver, where converted running back and future defensive coordinator Justin Hamilton started opposite Ernest Wilford. The Hokies started a fullback in those days and were a base I-formation team. On obvious passing downs they would go four-wide in a shotgun formation, but teams weren’t fooled. Everyone in the stadium knew it was Wilford or bust. Remember, in the 2003 upset of #2 Miami, the Hokies completed only two passes in the whole game, both in the second half. One was a screen play that lost yardage, the other was a deep pass to Wilford for a touchdown.
When Virginia Tech’s offense has been really good despite a less-than-stacked receiver room, it has been because the Hokies had great to elite talent at quarterback and running back, and sometimes both. Those combinations were as follows:
1995-1996: Jim Drunkenmiller (QB), Dwayne Thomas and Ken Oxendine (RBs)
1999-2000: Michael Vick (QB), Shyrone Stith and Lee Suggs (RBs)
2002-2003: Bryan Randall (QB), Lee Suggs, Kevin Jones
The 2022 Hokies have a good, but not (yet) great QB in Grant Wells, who could very well develop into a similar player as Druckenmiller (57% completions, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 2,071 yards passing, 205 yards rushing as a senior in 1996). They now have a good, but not (yet) great RB in Malachi Thomas. Up front, the offensive line has struggled to adjust to the new system, which has made the backfield skill players look fair at best. It reminds me of the 2004 offense, if you took away all the receivers except Josh Hyman. That offense was able to score just enough points to be successful. This offense scores just enough points to be unsuccessful. The difference is the receivers.
Fast-forward to Today
That long prelude hopefully provides the necessary context to understand why so many wide receiver recruits were on hand to take in the Miami game. The Hokies need to improve the receiver room in the worst way, and there is a much better chance of doing that at scale via high school recruiting than the transfer portal. If the Hokies are going to be successful running the Tyler Bowen offense, they are going to need a receiving corps at least as good as the 2016 starters were. To give you a sense of how far off from that the Hokies currently are, here are the PFF grades for the top three receivers (by number of targets) from both years plotted against their national recruiting rank coming out of high school:
Over the last five recruiting classes, here are the top destinations for high school receivers in the DMV + North Carolina, as well as the average national rank for those receivers by the school they committed to:
As you can see, North Carolina and Maryland are bringing in much higher ranked receiver recruits than Virginia Tech (note, this list does not include “athletes”). There is a reason North Carolina’s receivers in recent years have performed on a level similar to Isaiah, Cam, and Bucky - they were ranked at a similar level coming out of high school.
I think Grant Wells and Malachi Thomas are trending toward Jim Druckenmiller and Dwayne Thomas levels of play in 2023. The offensive line is due for an upgrade, with significant portal-driven turnover likely. But if the Hokies are to succeed with an offense built around playing three wide receivers on most plays, they will need to find some receivers. In particular, they need to bring in higher ranked receivers. Development is critical, but it must start from a higher baseline. Otherwise, even if all the other pieces fall into place (more or less), seven wins is the most we can hope for in 2023, with five to six more likely.