Let's Talk About Coaching
Assistant coaching performance quantified and compared to the 2015-16 transition
Note: Data is sourced from CFDB and ESPN, except where noted. All PFF grades are preliminary, and current as of 5:00 a.m. Sunday morning (October 30). These grades can, and likely will, shift a bit, but the broader takeaways should hold true.
Raleigh, North Carolina - November 1, 2022
As his team walked off the field and into the locker room at halftime of last Thursday’s 22-21 defeat at North Carolina St., Brent Pry was pulled aside by one of the young graduate assistants on staff.
“Coach, you need to read this.”
“This better not be any more of that analytics mumbo-jumbo,” Pry replied.
“It’s not coach. Well, not entirely. I printed out the narrative article.”
Pry reached out and took possession of the printed article. As he read, with his team trailing just 3-0, he homed in on the following passages:
Overall, there is no reason to think the Hokies can hang with the Wolfpack if they play like they have all season - inept offense, lots of penalties, lots of turnovers, defense gets worn down and gives up lots of points in the second half.
…and…
The Wolfpack are smallish in the secondary - Tyler Baker-Williams, the starting nickel, is the biggest of the bunch at 6’0”, 205 lbs. Rather than try to be a power running team (which won’t work given Tech’s porous offensive line and NC State’s stout front six), be a power throwing team. Bully those smaller DBs. Make them contest jump balls. See if they can tackle bigger players in space.
…and…
Virginia Tech’s defense is better than Texas Tech’s, but nowhere near as good as Clemson’s. Factor in a backup QB for NC State and Tech’s proclivity for stupid penalties and inopportune turnovers, and I think we should expect the Wolfpack to score between 24 and 27 points. Limit the turnovers and penalties, and the Hokies could hold them under 20.
If the Hokies could get out to a quick lead and shut down the Wolfpack running game, we could see highly touted freshman quarterback MJ Morris. In fact, that is one of my biggest concerns - a sort of Tyler Buchner in reverse situation, in which the change is made and all of sudden the offense opens up and stresses a thin Hokie secondary.
…and…
VT’s offensive points per opportunity (2.6) has been consistency atrocious all year, and I think they will turn too many touchdowns into field goals to win. Conversely, Virginia Tech’s 4.3 on the defensive version of that same metric tells us to expect more NC State touchdowns than field goals.
Tonight won’t be a worse case scenario as far as mistakes, but Tech will still make its fair share. Overall, it feels like a 24-19 kind of game, in favor of NC State. The tell will be short VT field goals. If Tech kicks two field goals from 30 yards or less, they will lose.
Pry then walked into the locker room and delivered the following message to his team.
Men, if we keep playing like this, we’re going to lose. And it won’t even be close. We talked all week about limiting mistakes. Regardless, half the team has already been flagged for a false start. We’re stuck in the mud, and it’s time to get unstuck.
Tyler - let’s raise the roof on this place. Grant, make sure you loosen up your arm well. Kaleb, Dae’Quan - the ball is coming your way. I’m counting on you guys to catch anything you can reach. And you better fight through the initial contact.
Guys, our defense has played great, but they’ve been out there for way too long. This freshman quarterback on the other side is good, and eventually they’re going to string some plays together and start scoring. If we want to win tonight, we’re going to need more than three touchdowns. Offensive coaches - anytime we’re in the redzone, consider it four-down territory.
So, that’s the plan. We air it out on offense. Defense, keep playing your asses off. And for God’s sake, knock it off with the stupid penalties! We can win this thing if we get dialed in and stay dialed in. Now, let’s get out there and put some points on the board!
Remember, you read the analysis here first. Hours before kickoff.
Assistant Coaching Performance
Watching the Hokies this year has been so painful that it has been difficult to gauge the performance of the new assistants on an individual level. In an attempt to do just that, I created a couple of datasets sourced from PFF and other public sources to compare player performance across the last two years. In order to be included, a player must have logged about 130 snaps in each of the last two years. Here are the results, sorted in descending order of grade increase (decrease):
Surprise, surprise, most of the gains are for defensive players and most of the losses are among the offensive players. The aggregates are as follows:
Those totals are a bit deceiving. When we look at the gains (losses) by coach, we uncover the real insights:
In a world with limited resources, Pry elected to hire a staff of assistants in the prime of their careers to work under young, up-and-coming coordinators. The two slight exceptions are Fontel Mines, who is seven years younger than the staff average, but already considered an outstanding coach, and Stu Holt, the special teams coordinator and running backs coach.
As regular readers know, I have been following Dax Hollifield pretty closely, so Marve’s performance is not a surprise. However, Shawn Quinn, the modern day Jim Cavanaugh, coaching SAMs and nickels (none of the nickels met the qualification criteria for this analysis), has done a whale of a job with Keonta Jenkins. Combined with his prodigious recruiting, his on-field coaching has put an end to all that “Shawn who?” business when he was hired away from Division II Savannah St.
Pierson Prioleau has finally stabilized the safety position, and the resurgence of Chamarri Connor has been nice to see. And this might sound strange given their struggles overall, but Fontel Mines has done a good job with the receivers. A lot of that is Kaleb Smith, but come on, how many people actually thought he could be this good? Da’Wain Lofton, though shaky, has also played better than he did last year. Finally, J.C. Price’s d-line unit has taken a step forward across the board. Remember, a five point annual increase in grade would take a baseline freshman to the brink of third team All-Conference status by the time he was a senior. All the aforementioned coaches have done that, and then some. Bravo to them.
On the flip side, Tech has seen declines at other positions. I’ll give Derek Jones’s corners and Stu Holt’s running backs a break, as both rooms have dealt with injuries (both major and minor) throughout the year. Grant Wells has been ok to good, and improving throughout the year, so no worries about Brad Glenn.
The issues are in the trenches. Joe Rudolph’s offensive line has been awful, and Tyler Bowen’s tight ends have been worse. I don’t think it’s a teaching thing - both coaches have a good track record. I think it is more a case of asking players to do that which they cannot do, over and over and over. I keep asking myself why? I’ve come up with three possible reasons:
They (the coaches) are not capable of making the necessary adjustments
They are bull-headed for no reason
They are bull-headed for a reason
Number 1 is possible, but I do not think it is the top suspect. I definitely do not think #2 is the reason. I suspect #3 is the winner. And I think it’s about culture. This is the kind of football we’re going to play. And we’re going to keep repping it and recruiting to it until we succeed. Whit Babcock cited the lack of an offensive identity as one reason why he made the coaching change last year. This staff seems laser focused on building a culture and identity for this team centered on power and toughness. And if it takes more than a season to do that, so be it.
Rudolph’s lines at Wisconsin were generally good to very good at pass blocking and excellent at run blocking. The 2014 o-line, the last pre-Rudolph, actually graded out higher than any of Rudolph’s lines. Only two of the players on that line returned in 2015 - one graded out nine points higher than in 2014, while the other graded out nine points lower. For his tenure at Wisconsin, Rudolph’s lines earned the following grades:
In the PFF era, the 2022 Virginia Tech offensive line is by far Rudolph’s worst run blocking unit. It will be interesting to track his moves in the offseason and into spring and summer 2023 practices. Does he dip into the portal? How are all those redshirting freshmen developing? Does it start to click with any of the current starters who have eligibility remaining?
Flashback to the Fuente Transition
Out of curiosity, I ran those same numbers for the 2015-16 transition (Beamer’s last year and Fuente’s first. I came up with the following:
The 2016 offense set a number of records at Virginia Tech, but the grading pattern was the same then as it is now. Most of the gains were made on defense (where Bud Foster remained defensive coordinator and inside linebackers coach, and Charley Wiles continued as the defensive line coach). Brian Mitchell, who had a great reputation as a coach, less so as a recruiter, made an immediate difference with all three returning cornerbacks registering good to outstanding increases in their respective defensive grade. Perhaps most relevant to today, the four players with the greatest declines in their grade from 2015 to 2016 were offensive linemen. They started at a higher base than the 2022 players, but again, notice the two biggest declines were at RG and RT, just as they are now. Is it any wonder VT could not run the ball consistently with its running backs in 2016?
Over time, the fanbase came to regard Vance Vice as a very good offensive line coach. Perhaps what we are seeing with the 2022 offensive line is more about the transition than the coach. We would need to see a larger sample size to say so with any confidence. Still, we have travelled down a similar road before.