Just Enough, but No More
The margin of victory was miniscule, but the Hokies ended the season on the right side of a one-point game
Note: Data is sourced from CFDB and ESPN, except where noted. All PFF grades are preliminary, and current as of 5:00 a.m. Monday morning (November 21). These grades can, and likely will, shift a bit, but the broader takeaways should hold true.
The Hokies finally ended their long losing streak, and just barely. In this article, I will hit on the main points from the preview article, including where the Hokies did and did not take advantage of opportunities, as well as the single stat that tipped the game in their favor. I’ll also preview a position where the Hokies risk some unanticipated (at least to the fanbase) attrition. Finally, I’ll offer a few thoughts on the end of the season and preview some of the offseason content I am working on.
The Deciding Factor
In the preview I published last Friday, I presented a number of advanced stats, and ultimately this one was the most important:
Keep that rushing plays EPA number for the Hokies (0.0378) in mind. I’ll come back to it in a bit.
In regard to Tech’s opportunities in the run game, I wrote:
The advanced stats show that Liberty’s defense does a pretty good job limiting the yards per carry on an average run, but that they are prone to giving up some big plays on the ground. This matchup suggests that Keshawn King will have at least a couple big gains in the run game. The difference between winning or losing may come down to whether or not he can fully break one, or if he gets tripped up for a gain in the 10-15 yard range.
Let’s break that down, piece by piece:
Virginia Tech had 59 carries (including sacks) for 176 yards, which works out to 3.0 yards per carry. Jalen Holston carried the ball 26 times for 99 yards (3.8 ypc), while Keshawn King had 78 yards on 11 carries (7.1 ypc).
King’s longest carry on the day was 22 yards, while Holston’s was 14. Grant Wells, for good measure, had a long carry of 19 yards. Those three carries totaled 55 yards. That means the Hokies gained 121 yards on their remaining 56 carries (2.2 ypc).
Holston ran for all three VT touchdowns, but none was longer than five yards. King’s 22-yard run came on a drive that ended in a punt.
So there were some explosive runs, but no true gamebreakers. The yards per carry was pretty pedestrian. In fact, if you had told me before the game that Tech would average 3.0 ypc and the longest run from scrimmage would be 22 yards, I’d have have said that Liberty would win by 10+ points. So what happened?
Well, the most telling standard statistic was 59, as in the number of carries. That’s a ton! That meant the Hokies offense was making first downs (19 for the game), sustaining drives, and keeping their defense off the field (they owned time of possession to the tune of 36 minutes and 20 seconds). And that translated into a 0.2835 EPA on running plays, which was 7.5 times higher than their season average entering the game.
And that made all the difference, because the passing game struggled. Kaleb Smith was quiet from a results standpoint, as Wells did not find him on the few occasions when he did get some separation. The six sacks allowed certainly didn’t help that cause. Overall, Tech ended the day with a -0.1576 EPA on passing plays, meaning that every pass was adding to Liberty’s score, not that of the Hokies. It’s no wonder then that the Hokies ran the ball so much, a luxury they would not have had without a strong showing by the defense. Speaking of which…
Assessing the Defense
Johnathan Bennett started at QB for Liberty, and he split time with Kaidon Salter. Neither threw an interception (racking up 4.3% and 3.6% turnover worthy play percentages, respectively). However, each lost a fumble (VT was +2 on turnovers). Salter’s fumble came early in the 4th quarter in VT territory with Liberty ahead 22-17. Keli Lawson made the recovery, and the Hokies drove down the field and scored what would prove to be the game winning touchdown. Bennett’s fumble came late in the game and sealed the Hokie victory.
Overall, the defense held the Flames to 13 points (the remaining 9 came on a kickoff return for a touchdown and a safety). Mansoor Delane and Keli Lawson both had huge games, and the offseason hype around those two is going to be unreal. Hello N-I-L. That said, Lawson has been almost too good to end the season (grading out between 70 and 85 in >30 snaps in each of the last three games of the season). Right now I see four linebackers vying for three spots in 2023, assuming they all return:
Alan Tisdale (WLB)
Keli Lawson (WLB)
Jaden Keller (W/MLB)
Keonta Jenkins (SLB)
Chris Marve has shown a willingness to cycle his backers and play a lot of guys. Here are the average snap counts and PFF defensive grade for each linebacker this season:
The SLB position looks settled, with Jenkins and Walker both set to return following a solid 2022 campaign. Dax will, obviously, be missed, and the biggest question is, who will replace him. It looks like Jaden Keller will get the first shot (of the Wills, he seems the best potential fit at Mike), but is there a chance Lawson or Tisdale might slide over and compete for that position? If you’re Alan Tisdale, would you come back for year #6 to be a backup or rotational player? Everyone’s grades improved this season, but at the same time, Tisdale has to start and play a lot to have any chance of making it to the NFL. Could he put on 10 pounds and be viable at Mike? That should be a very interesting post-season conversation.
A Few Thoughts About Coaching and the End of the 2022 Season
I closed the Friday article with this:
A favorable measure of the team’s situation is that there is poor alignment between what the players do well and the scheme the coaches want to run. A less favorable view would be that there is misalignment within the coaching ranks, and, as a result, schemes between position groups are not gelling on the whole. The worst case is that a number of of the coaches are not as good as we had all hoped they would be. I think this game will go a long way toward clarifying which of these options is the best fit.
With 11 games of data, I think elements of all three possibilities are true. The offense clearly shifted midway through the year, prompting an improvement in run blocking, but a drop-off in pass protection. The alignment issue, although different later in the season, plagued the team for the duration of 2022. The offense, especially, did lack cohesiveness, which continues to suggest issues with fit between the schemes favored by specific position coaches. I do think it will be very interesting to see what Tech does in the portal. Do they go after players who fit the type of offense they wanted to run at the start of the season, the type of offense they ran late in the year, or something else entirely? I will say, in conclusion, that the coach I will be watching closely moving forward is Stu Holt. The special teams unit struggled from beginning (long snap over the holder’s head on a field goal attempt) to end (kickoff return for a touchdown) in 2022. They couldn’t cover kicks, and outside of Tucker Holloway against Georgia Tech, the return game was non-existent. This was by far the worst special teams unit the school has fielded in 35 years. Needless to say, that unit needs to improve in the worst way.
The Hokies announced last night that the UVA game has been cancelled, which is fine. I do think, if it had been possible, playing Tech would have been especially cathartic for the Wahoos, given what happened in 2007. It would have been a unique healing moment because the Hokie fanbase gets it like no other. The only issue is that, understandably, no one is emotionally ready to play that football game. Virginia Tech will open the 2023 season on September 2 against Old Dominion, and the Hokies are scheduled to play at UVA on November 25, so that precludes moving the rivalry weekend game to the opening weekend. It’s been good to see the unconditional support from not just VT, but all the in-state schools toward Virginia. I hope with the official close of the season the healing process can begin in earnest up in Charlottesville.
Coming Up in the Offseason
I’m planning to shift to one article per week now that we are in the offseason (likely published on Fridays, beginning December 2). The extra time is necessary for the kind of in-depth articles I am planning. I’m building version 2 of the model with the end goal being to answer the following questions:
Which is the greatest Virginia Tech football team in the last 20 years?
Had there been a playoff pre-2014, which VT teams might have made it, and how well would they have fared?
I’m also really excited to perform in-depth analyses on recruiting trends, especially in the state of Virginia.
In the end, 2022 was pretty forgettable by VT football standards, and there are equal parts reason for optimism and reason for concern as we look ahead to 2023. That means there is lots to analyze, so stay tuned!