It's Getting Hot in Here
Neal Brown's seat is warming up, and so are the Hokies
Virginia Tech is set to play West Virginia under the lights in front of what is sure to be a raucous, Thursday night Lane Stadium crowd. The winner of the game will keep the Black Diamond trophy for the indefinite future, as the two teams do not have any more scheduled matchups. Virginia Tech is looking to stretch its winning streak to three games and avenge last year’s heartbreaking defeat in Morgantown, while the Mountaineers hope to salvage a 2-2 month of September, get a win over a rival, and prove they can play at a consistently high level on both sides of the ball.
Be sure to review in detail the preview viz above, as I have added the following metrics to this week’s edition:
Offensive X-Factors
Defensive X-Factors
Unit Letter Grades
More FPI Metrics
Unit by Unit, Position by Position
Per PFF, through three games, Virginia Tech has earned a B overall (85.7), solidly above West Virginia, which has played B- level (80.5) football to start the year. Although FPI does not forecast either team to win six games, playing at those grade levels for an entire season generally translates into 7-8 wins (B) and 6-7 wins (B-).
West Virginia’s offense has played better than Virginia Tech’s, but not to the degree the raw stats might suggest. In fact, Virginia Tech’s advantage on defense (24.0 PFF grade points) is more than double West Virginia’s advantage on offense (9.1 points). Special Teams is close to a wash, with a 1.8 point advantage going to the Mountaineers. That grade is inclusive of Tech’s disastrous, once-in-two-decades field goal snap over the holder’s head that was returned for a touchdown in week 1. The best unit on the field is Virginia Tech’s defense (89.5), and the worst unit is the Mountaineer defense (65.5).
Looking just at the projected starters, Virginia Tech has higher grades at 5 out of 7 position groups. The only position groups where WVU holds an advantage are TE/WR and offensive line, and even those are misleading. Virginia Tech’s starting defensive line holds a 14.5 PFF point advantage over the Mountaineer offensive line. By way of comparison, Tech’s offensive line is only at a 7.6 point disadvantage.
Likewise, the Virginia Tech secondary holds a 2.6 point advantage over the Mountaineer pass catchers, while the Hokie tight ends and wide receivers hold a slim, 0.9 point advantage over WVU’s secondary. Perhaps most surprising is the 1.1 point advantage the Hokies hold at quarterback. Yes, Grant Wells has actually outplayed JT Daniels through three games, according to their PFF grades. Let that sink in for minute before we proceed…
Quarterback Play
The two starting quarterbacks enter this game with similar traditional statistics:
Grant Wells - 65.6% completions, 651 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs
JT Daniels - 64.4% completions, 753 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs
Advanced stats and PFF grades tell a similar story:
The accuracy and passing grade metrics are nearly identical, while Wells holds a solid advantage as a runner. (Side note: has anyone else noticed the distinct lack of opposing mobile quarterbacks on the VT schedule this year?) The advantage in QB Rating is almost entirely the result of Daniels having a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio compared to 1:1 for Wells.
The difference in time to throw really stands out. Daniels is sacked a bit more often (3.6% of dropbacks compared to 2.9% for Wells) and has a shorter average target (8.8 yards vs. 9.2), but the differences in those two metrics are not so great as to account for a 0.4 second difference in time to throw. Add in a big time throw rate of only 3.7% for Daniels (compared to 4.9% for Wells), and I interpret these numbers to mean that Daniels has often been throwing to his initial read, who has gotten sufficient separation from the defensive back. A key tell in this one will be whether or not the Hokies can force Daniels to come off his initial read and go through his progressions. If they can do that, the advantage in the trenches could result in significant pressure and 4-5 sacks by the Virginia Tech defense.
Intangibles
After the ODU loss, when Brent Pry talked about “making them earn it”, he was talking about not committing stupid penalties and turning the ball over. At a more advanced level, a key facet of “making them earn in” is winning the field position battle. In 2022, on average, each time Virginia Tech and the opposition trade punts, the Hokies gain 7.3 yards. The Mountaineers, in contrast, lose 0.9 yards. Watch for this difference on Thursday night, as it will be a key determinant in the outcome of the game (assuming Tech can force WVU to punt more than once or twice).
Another critical intangible for Virginia Tech this week is capitalizing on opportunities. Coming into the game, West Virginia is averaging 5.0 points per opportunity, nearly twice Virginia Tech’s 2.6 point average. On the defensive side, VT gives up 4.3 points per opportunity, nominally less than WVU’s 4.6. To win the game, Virginia Tech’s offense needs to match West Virginia’s in points per opportunity, and it needs to take advantage of hidden yardage (win the field position battle) to generate more opportunities.
Part of winning the field position battle will be getting off the field defensively, and that starts with shutting down the West Virginia run game. The Mountaineers run the ball on 47% of their offensive plays, while VT opponents this season have only run it 43% of the time. If the Hokies are dialed in defensively, we could expect West Virginia to throw on upwards of 60-65% of their plays. If that ratio tilts closer to 50:50, it could be a long night for Tech.
Gut Feelings
Since 1990, Virginia Tech has won 6 out of the 8 matchups with West Virginia that have been played in Blacksburg. The average score of those games was VT 26, WVU 16. Both of West Virginia’s wins were by less than 10 points, while 4 out of Virginia Tech’s 6 wins were by more than 10 points. There is also this:
Playing Pitt and Virginia Tech on the road in the same month is a tall task for West Virginia. Add in the fact that the Backyard Brawl was the first game of the season, and no one on WVU’s roster has ever played in Lane Stadium, and there is every possibility that the Mountaineers come in a little flat and fail to match the focus and intensity levels of the Hokies.
Over the weekend, I built a basic multiple regression model to forecast the winning team and the point differential. The model, which chose the winner correctly in 81% of all Virginia Tech games since 2002, calls for the Hokies to beat the Mountaineers by six points. One key variable that I did not regress on was kickoff time. The night game crowd is going to be insane, and the noise they produce will be deafening, assuming the Hokies are at least in the game, if not winning. I am expecting the kind of environment conducive to the ole snowball effect. With that in mind, I see Virginia Tech capitalizing on opportunities (there will be turnovers in this game), but more often with field goals than touchdowns. Still, defense + special teams will equal a field position win for the Hokies, and that will prove critical in the final score, which I expect to be in the neighborhood of VT 33, WVU 21.
Record outright: 2-1
Record against the spread: 1-2
Record over/under: 1-2