Independence Day Check-in on the 2025 Recruiting Class
The first in a series of four planned check-ins that will track each Virginia Tech commit's 247Sports composite rating over time
All data in this article are sourced from 247Sports. The 247 Composite factors in recruiting ratings from sources like ESPN and Rivals in addition to 247Sports’s own in-house ratings.
The Hokies have been on a recruiting roll recently, with a newly announced commitment appearing on social media seemingly every other day.
With expectations for a top 25 squad in 2024, there were some jitters this past spring when the Hokies appeared to be off to a slow start on the recruiting trail.
As the Hokies have caught up, at least in terms of raw numbers, many have noted that the recent commits are solid players, but that the class continues to lack true star power.
Still, the narrative remains positive. A common refrain is that recruiting ratings are never precise, and at best they are merely directional ahead of a player’s senior year.
Many fans (and pundits!) take that statement further, adopting a belief that the players committed to their favorite school are indeed underrated, and as other teams discover them, surely their ratings will improve.
To date, I am not aware, of any data that would support this assertion, or even the former, about how precise recruiting ratings are at this point in the cycle. So, I’ve decided to put both statements to the test.
This will be the first of four check-ins on Virginia Tech’s commitments for the class of 2025. The federal holiday schedule provides convenient intervals:
Independence Day
Labor Day
Thanksgiving
Signing Day
At this first interval, the Hokies have 14 firm commitments, and 247Sports rates the class 43rd, nationally.
Baseline
Currently, Tech only has two 4-star commits in the 2025 class, and both barely made it past the cutoff.
It is critical that the Hokies land top-10 caliber players from Virginia, and both Matthew Outten and Brett Clatterbaugh check that box. However, neither is a true class headliner at a top-25 level program.
The Hokies need to sign another player or two in this range, then add a couple more highly rated players.
The rest of Tech’s current high school commits are 3-star players, with more on the high side (maroon) than the low side (orange).
Subjectively, I’m happy the Hokies took a flier on Chinwike. Every class should include one to two high ceiling, under the radar guys at the bottom. Everyone mentions Christian Darrisaw as an example of this type of recruit, but Dorian Strong was a similar case.
Tracking progress
At a high level, this exercise will track the standing of the 2025 class of high school recruits who commit to Virginia Tech.
Collecting point-in-time data at intervals of two to three months will also enable us to drill into precisely what drives changes in the overall rank of Tech’s class.
Often times, the sheer number of recruits in a large class can elevate a school’s recruiting ranking above its peers.
Other times, it is landing one or more highly rated players, increases in the ratings of currently committed players, or some combination therein.
Importantly, we will finally have the quantitative evidence to say for sure whether the recruiting ratings really change all that much during the cycle.
With that information, we will be able to draw some conclusions about Pry & Co.’s scouting and player evaluation. If the staff is finding good players under-the-radar and gaining their early commitment, this dataset will reveal it.
The currently committed players are pretty tightly bunched together in terms of their composite rating, with plenty of room for their respective rating to increase or decrease over time.
And since we are looking solely at the composite rating, we won’t have to worry about wild swings from any one recruiting site.
Personally, I do not expect to see significant changes in player ratings, but I do look forward to adding quantitative context to what is too often a rah-rah aspect of the sport.