Improved Hokies Prepare for Improved ACC

Expectations are high across the league as Virginia Tech prepares for a challenging conference slate

Last week I outlined what it would take for Virginia Tech to win anywhere from five to nine games.

This week I will examine the ACC, foes from which comprise two-thirds of Tech’s 12-game schedule.

What stands out immediately in the preseason SP+ ratings is the improvement we should expect from many schools in the conference. Virginia Tech ended the 2022 season with an SP+ rating in the 27th percentile. The Hokies will enter week one of the 2023 season in the 48th percentile.

Tech’s 21-percentile point increase reflects an improved roster and strong coaching hires in the offseason. A more talented team, combined with many highly ranked 2024 commits, has Hokie Nation excited for Year 2 of the Brent Pry era.

Yet, despite all the positive momentum, Virginia Tech is only #4 in the ACC in terms of overall year-over-year SP+ percentile improvement. Boston College (+31 points), Miami (+25), and Georgia Tech (+24) have all seen greater increases.

Only two teams enter 2023 with a lower SP+ percentile than the they ended 2022: Duke (-1) and Wake Forest (-7).

Running the ACC gauntlet

Mark my word, there will be a key injury or three in training camp that will shake up all these preseason ratings. Still, at this point in time, Virginia Tech’s conference schedule looks imposing (SP+ percentile is in parentheses; remember that 0th is the lowest possible percentile and 100th the highest, or best):

• September 30 - Pitt (70th) at Virginia Tech (48th)

• October 7 - Virginia Tech (48th) at Florida St. (92nd)

• October 14 - Wake Forest (61st) at Virginia Tech (48th)

• October 26 (Th.) - Syracuse (56th) at Virginia Tech (48th)

• November 4 - Virginia Tech (48th) at Louisville (73rd)

• November 11 - Virginia Tech (48th) at Boston College (46th)

• November 18 - NC State (65th) at Virginia Tech (48th)

• November 25 - Virginia Tech (48th) at Virginia (43rd)

Virginia Tech, despite being mid-pack nationally in SP+, has a lower preseason rating than six out of its eight conference opponents. If Tech only beats those teams (Boston College and Virginia), it would need to go undefeated in the four non-conference games to reach bowl eligibility. Don’t count on that combination actually happening in real life.

Perhaps most surprising is the fact that home field advantage for BC and UVA might be enough to make the Hokies, at lease theoretically and in a preseason sense, an underdog in every conference game this season.

Seven out of the conference’s 14 teams will begin 2023 with offenses and defenses in a higher percentile than they ended 2022 (the top-right quadrant above, shaded in gray). Virginia Tech will play four of those teams - Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Florida St. - and only the Panthers will come to Lane Stadium.

NC State has regressed a bit on defense, but, with the offseason additions of Offensive Coordinator Robert Anae and former UVA quarterback Brennan Armstrong, the Wolfpack will likely be much stronger on offense.

Conversely, Syracuse and Virginia have taken small steps backward on offense, but are improved on defense. Wake Forest will also sport a much stronger defense, but the loss of Sam Hartman is expected slow the offense considerably.

Importantly, at least in the preseason ratings, no ACC team has experienced declines in both its Offense and Defense SP+ percentile.

I know, I know, it’s the ACC. After the usual contingent of September out-of-conference losses, the entire picture will be different.

However, at present, Tech is expected to face stiff competition in every ACC game.

The most important game

Like last year, the Hokies face a nasty October schedule. It does not take much imagination to picture Tech racing out to a 4-0 record in September. Ranked just inside the Hokies would then welcome Pitt into a raucous Lane Stadium and play a great game, but lose by a field goal late. Deflated, they would travel down to Tallahassee the next week and get curb-stomped by the Seminoles, then return home the following week and lose by 10 to Wake.

The Hokies would enter the bye week with a winning record, but on a three-game losing streak. The season would hinge on the late-October, Thursday night game at home against Syracuse.

A win would get Tech back on track and make seven wins likely and eight possible. A loss would drop the Hokies to 4-4 and bring bowl eligibility into question.

While this is a hypothetical, I do expect the Hokies to enter the bye week with either three or four wins, with two or five an outside possibility.

Syracuse is very getable, and that is a game the Hokies must win. Their season will depend on it.

The takeaway

Last week, I explained how, by the numbers, the Hokies have the look of a seven, or maybe even an eight win team. So, how is it that I can come back this week and say that the Hokies are looking up at all their ACC competition.

Simple - it’s only the end of July! These ratings can, and will, change.

At this point, I expect the Hokies to be narrow favorites (by betting lines) in four conference games this year (Syracuse, Boston College, NC State, and Virginia). Let’s say they win three out of those four games and pull off one upset in conference. That would translate into a 4-4 conference record.

All four non-conference games are eminently winnable. Under the above hypothetical, the Hokies would need two non-conference wins to go bowling, three to win seven games, and a clean sweep to win eight games.

That would be fun, wouldn’t it?

And it could really happen. The Hokies could also go 2-10. Such is the 2023 schedule. No guaranteed wins, but only Florida St. (on the road) appears to be truly out of reach.

Buckle up. ACC Media Days are in the rearview mirror. Now, all that stands between us and the regular season is a very important August of camp.