Hyperventilating Hokies to Host Rutgers
Hyperventilating Hokies to Host Rutgers
Analytics tasked with calming fearful fanbase, bringing reason to pregame anti-hype
They are big and experienced and feature a great running back.
They have a talented secondary and a legendary head coach and Tech has lots of injured players.
They beat the Hokies last year and they’re in the Big ten and Tech hasn’t beaten a power conference opponent since Don Strock threw three TDs to Antonio Freeman, leading the Hokies to an upset win over Bear Bryant and the Alabama Crimson Tide on…(checks calendar)…the second of never.
And on and on and on.
People, it’s Rutgers! Chill out.
They went 7-6, 3-6 last year.
They will probably be decent to good this year.
But they are not world beaters. Tech is favored by -3.5 for a reason.
Reading the tea leaves on Rutgers
By week 4, most teams have faced at least one opponent with a pulse.
Most, but not all.
Rutgers is 2-0 on the young season and is completely untested having faced an FCS team and a bad MAC school.
All of the Scarlet Knights’ stats - regular, advanced, PFF grades - are inflated to the point of being barely relevant.
Still, there are some eye-catching numbers, and I am going to focus on those, as they signify areas of weakness that the Hokies may choose to attack.
Struggles in rush defense
In two scrimmages this year, versus Howard and Akron, the Scarlet Knights allowed 145 and 156 yards rushing, respectively. This, despite racking up a gaudy 24% stuff rate.
So, what gives?
Gap integrity could be an issue, similar to what the Hokies dealt with last year. Consider these rushing defense advanced stats:
Ranked 97th nationally in rushing EPA allowed
85th in rushing success allowed
114th in rushing explosiveness allowed
Add in the (lack of) quality of Rutgers’ opposition, and those stats comprise the very definition of a wet paper bag rush defense.
Four yards and a cloud of dust
The Rutgers offense has an inflated success rate of 59%, but scores very low on explosiveness (1.14).
Remember, explosiveness is the average EPA per successful play, which is in turn is defined as:
the offense scored
1st downs which gain at least 50% of the yards to go
2nd downs which gain at least 70% of the yards to go
3rd and 4th downs which gain at least 100% of the yards to go
Translated, this means that Rutgers has moved the ball up and down the field, but without many chunk plays.
If two bad teams could force the Scarlet Knights to drive the length of the field, mostly without big gains, then Virginia Tech stands a good chance of shutting them down.
Turnover proclivity
If Tech’s defense can slow the Rutgers rushing attack, then we could see some interceptions. QB Athan Kaliakmanis, a transfer from Minnesota, entered the season with a career 17 to 13 touchdown to interception ratio, having never completed 55% of his passing attempts in a season.
At 6’3”, 213 lbs., Kaliakmanis runs better than you would expect, but he is not a mobile quarterback. Against Akron last week, he did not register a single carry.
Do not discount the importance of 2023 Rutgers QB Gavin Wimsatt’s threat on the ground when evaluating last year’s game. He carried the ball 11 times for 87 yards and a touchdown.
Kaliakmanis is no such threat, which will allow the Tech defense to dial in on tailback Kyle Monangai.
Expect the Scarlet Knights to run Kaliakmanis more than his skillset would suggest they should, as they attempt to make the Hokie defense honor backfield fakes.
I doubt the Hokies will.
Tech’s defense will likely send a free hitter toward Monangai on every play, forcing Kaliakmanis to keep the ball on any true option plays. The Hokies will give him some yardage, content to make him pay the price of accumulated hits.
Lots of hits, few running lanes for Monangai, a low completion percentage, and a natural tendency to throw interceptions could have the Tech secondary licking their collective chops.
Look out for the safeties, perhaps former receiver Jaylen Jones, to possibly nab a pick this week.
Final tidbits
In a close game, special teams can make all the difference. Tech has not been great there this year, with numerous unforced errors leading to big plays for the opposition. SP+ gives Rutgers the edge.
Both teams enter the game allowing just 2.0 points per opportunity, but offensively Rutgers has the edge at 5.0 to 4.3. However, Rutgers is unlikely to maintain that lofty figure as it gets into the more difficult portion of its schedule.
Talent is pretty similar up and down both rosters, but a slight edge goes to Virginia Tech for producing twice as many NFL Draft picks in the last five years.
The Hokies have a comfortable edge in pregame win percentage, 59.5% to 40.5%.
In a game between two pretty evenly matched teams, time and location matter. The Hokies will have a significant homefield advantage, both in terms of the Lane Stadium noise and the 3:30 kickoff time, which allows for plenty of tailgating, but not the over-the-top hype and pregame festivities that often accompany night games in Blacksburg.
All told, Saturday’s game should be a good one, and Virginia Tech should prevail.