Hokies vs. Hoos
Win and Tech is bowl bound
The 2023 Virginia Tech Hokies have beaten every bad football team in the ACC except one, the Virginia Cavaliers.
On Saturday, Tech looks to complete the clean sweep of ACC cellar dwellers. Previous wins came over:
#70 (SP+) Syracuse
#76 Boston College
#87 Pittsburgh
#92 Wake Forest
Virginia, tied at #96 nationally, occupies the bottom spot in the ACC.
Now, let’s compare that list to the ACC teams that have beaten the Hokies this year:
#5 Florida St.
#19 Louisville
#41 NC State
With the Hokies at #60 in SP+, that all makes sense.
If there is cause for concern, it should come from the non-conference portion of the season. While the offense has changed and Kyron Drones has settled in as the starting quarterback, the defense is largely unchanged. Here are the three non-conference losses:
#96 Purdue
#58 Rutgers
#103 Marshall
The Hokies lost to Purdue and Marshall by the same score: 24-17. Both opponents feature SP+ offenses in the sub-35th percentile group.
UVA’s offense falls in the 35th percentile.
Conclusion: Tech is capable of allowing four touchdowns on Saturday.
The good news is that Virginia’s defense is porous (29th percentile).
The bad news is that the deeper one dives into the numbers, the more concerning said numbers get.
Conventional wisdom, meet reality
On the surface, the UVA offense looks like a great matchup for the Tech defense. The Hoos can’t run, and the Hokies are strong in pass defense.
What’s not to love?
A scrambling quarterback against a defense that struggles to maintain gap integrity, for one. Too much potential for exploitation there, and NC State provided plenty of leads on avenues for exploration.
UVA is also as explosive in the pass game as Tech is in allowing explosive plays. Translation: you can put the Hoos down for 3-4 explosive plays through the air on Saturday.
Finally, the Wahoos are marginally better at sustaining drives, with success rates of 40% on rushing plays and 42% when they throw.
Virginia’s plan of attack
UVA’s offensive line is not good (Wahoo quarterbacks have been sacked 37 times this season), and neither of the outside receivers should threaten the Tech secondary (although Malachi Fields is a big target at 6’4”, and he has over 700 yards receiving this year). Throw in injuries and poor play from the running backs, and that leaves two players: QB Anthony Colandrea and slot receiver Malik Washington.
Keonta Jenkins will likely start the game for Tech, but expect Derrick Canteen, as the nickel, to play the majority snaps. Canteen has been solid in his first season in Blacksburg, but he struggled with KC Concepcion last week.
This week’s matchup is even tougher.
Washington is closing in on 100 catches, and has already eclipsed 1,300 yards receiving.
Tech’s defense is pillow soft at linebacker. Look for UVA to attack underneath zones with Washington. Yards after the catch should be a major concern for Chris Marve.
Mixing in some man coverage is likely, but playing man against slot receivers is tough to sustain, as it invites crossing routes and pick plays.
For UVA, this is the last game of the season no matter what. There is every reason to believe the Hoos will leave everything on the field. From a play selection standpoint, don’t be surprised if 50% of their offensive sanps comprise Colandrea keepers and Washington targets.
How the Hokies win
Much has been made of Bhayshul Tuten getting only two carries last week. Politically speaking, no coach can afford a repeat performance, especially on the road against one’s rivals.
Thus, how the Hokies win is simple. Bowen runs Tuten 30+ times, Drones 15+ times, and Thomas 10+ times.
Run, run, run, draw play, run some more.
UVA is ranked #117 in EPA allowed per rushing play. It’s not rocket science.
Paul Akere is the only Virginia defender of substance, and he’ll line up opposite the strength of the Hokies’ offensive line.
Don’t be surprised if Brody Meadows ends up getting more snaps at right guard than does Bob Schick. Meadows is the better run blocker.
When Tech does throw the ball, expect Drones to look in Jaylin Lane’s direction. UVA does not have anyone well suited to defending Tech’s speedy slot receiver.
Expectations vs. possibilities
Virginia Tech’s floor and ceiling for points scored are both higher than Virginia’s, but there is an uncomfortable zone in which the Cavaliers land close to their ceiling and the Hokies close to their floor that results in a UVA win.
The Hokies have the better team (marginally) and more to play for. UVA has home field advantage (such that it is in Charlottesville).
Las Vegas expects Tech to win and, partially on that basis, so does my score prediction model.
Let’s return to the Purdue and Marshall games for insight as to how this thing could go off the rails.
Tech has been incredibly fortunate, given the amount of QB runs, that Kyron Drones has remained healthy all year. However, as Jordan Travis’s injury last week reminds us, catastrophe is always just a play away.
Should anything happen to Drones, will the coaches make the switch back to Wells immediately? Most likely, yes. However, Grant Wells in the new offense is a complete unknown. So is Tyler Bowen’s play calling with Wells running the new offense.
Against Marshall Tuten averaged nearly 10 yards per carry, but he didn’t get the ball enough to reach 100 yards for the game. Surely Bowen won’t make the same mistake again. Right?
Tuten is averaging 12.6 carries per game. Only once, against Pitt, has he logged more than 20 carries in a game. Three times (against Purdue, Marshall, and NC State) he got less than 10 carries in a game.
Also, note that while he has 24 receptions on the year, Tuten has not caught a pass the last two weeks.
UVA will surely try complicate things, but this week’s game is simple. Run to eat the clock, run to score, and run to win.
Oh, and defensive line, get those arms up on passing plays. Especially underneath throws. Colandrea is only 5’11”.
Do these things, and Tech should be bowl bound.