Hokies to Play First Conference Game in California
Virginia Tech a road favorite as Stanford likely to start backup QB
It has been a while since Stanford was relevant nationally in football (9-4 in 2018). It has been nearly as long for Virginia Tech (8-5 in 2019, following an 8-3 start).
After two straight games on the East Coast, Stanford will finally play host to a conference foe from back East.
Stanford won one of those games (at Syracuse) but is coming off a blowout loss at Clemson in which its quarterback, Ashton Daniels, was injured.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech just played a very physical game at Miami. The Hokies are travelling nearly 3,000 miles to play a football game for the first time since the 2003 Insight Bowl against Aaron Rodgers and Cal.
That game, which Cal won 52-49, was played at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. With the over/under for Saturday’s game set at 49.5, don’t expect as many offensive fireworks as we saw back in the day.
The Hokies are eight-point favorites, and the model has them covering that with an expected 11-point win.
However, Stanford is a trickier opponent than it appears at first blush.
The Cardinal are 42nd nationally in team talent, which is 10 spots ahead of Virginia Tech. They have also had four more players drafted into the NFL in the last five years than the Hokies.
Even though the Hokies are a disappointing 2-3 in 2024, they are still ranked #42 in SP+. Considering they have the 52nd most talented roster, the question begs, is Virginia Tech really underachieving, or has it just come up a bit short against teams that are better than we all thought they would be prior to the season?
When Virginia Tech has the ball
A quick scan of the projected starters reveals no real holes in the Stanford defense.
The Cardinal are especially strong on the edge, where David Bailey (6’3”, 240 lbs.) operates on one side, with Wilfredo Aybar (6’2”, 252 lbs.) on the other.
Stanford lists three defensive tackles, but at 6’3” and 260 lbs., Braden Marceau-Olayinka is more like a defensive end.
So, while the alignments may be tricky, and Tech might not always know ahead of a given play who will be coming off the edge and who will be dropping into coverage, the personnel is pretty standard from a size perspective.
Tech has excelled in running off-tackle this year, but the path of least resistance in this game could just as well be inside. The matchups are even, with the better performing players on the outside.
Expect Kyron Drones to carry the ball more on designed keepers up the middle this week. Such plays give the Hokies a man advantage, which over time could force Stanford to pinch one or both edge players in to help negate the Virginia Tech advantage.
Neither Stanford safety is particularly good in coverage, so this might be a game in which the Hokies take more than a few deep shots. It will all depend on how well the tackles hold up in pass protection.
When Stanford has the ball
In all honesty, the Stanford offense without Ashton Daniels should struggle to move the ball against the Virginia Tech defense. Justin Lamson did not do much in relief last week at Clemson.
Stanford’s third string QB, Elijah Brown, was a big-time recruit (#7 QB nationally, #2 in California, out of Mater Dei, which has produced more than a handful of great quarterbacks), but he is just a true freshman.
Wait, scratch that. This is Virginia Tech we’re talking about.
Here is what is going to happen:
Lamson starts and the Hokies totally shut down him and the Stanford offense.
Brown comes on in relief and instantly makes plays.
Stanford rallies
At this point, one of two things will occur.
Either Brown will lead the Cardinal to victory, earning ACC Rookie of the Week honors and becoming a folk (anti-) hero in the process, or Tech will start throwing more complicated looks at him, leading to misreads and, eventually, turnovers and a Virginia Tech victory.
Stanford’s skill position players are pretty average, and there are no matchups that really stand out to their advantage.
Overall, on paper, Tech’s defense should hold a sizable advantage. (keywords: on paper and should)
PFF grades by position group
The Hokies have an advantage in average PFF grade among expected starters at all three offensive position groups.
The difference in backfield grades is striking, but when you look at all three of Stanford’s groups together, it is really difficult to imagine how the Cardinal will score enough points to win the game.
On the other side of the ball, Stanford has smaller advantages at every position group.
Clemson scored 40 points last week in cruising to victory over Stanford, but that total was aided by three Ashton Daniels interceptions. The Tigers only gained 405 yards, and QB Cade Klubnik completed less than 50% of his passes.
The Hokies are +1 on the season in turnover margin, but -1 against power conference opponents. If they win the turnover battle on Saturday, they will probably win the game and cover the eight-point spread. If they don’t, the game could come down to the final possession.
Final thoughts
The single most important metric to keep in mind as you watch the game is stuff rate.
Stanford’s offense gets stuffed (stopped for no gain or a loss) on twice as many rushing plays as Virginia Tech (26% vs. 13%).
If that trend continues, Stanford will be behind the chains all day, which with a backup quarterback is a formula for interceptions and lots of punts.
On the flip side, the Stanford defense stuffs its opponents’ rushing plays at nearly twice the rate of the Hokies (33% vs. 17%).
It has been a long time since an opponent truly shut down Virginia Tech’s ground game, but that will be the #1 task for Stanford, and the Cardinal has the players to do it. At least for a half.
In the two games Stanford has lost this year (vs. TCU and at Clemson), the Cardinal defense kept the team in the game for the first two quarters.
The second half of both games was another story. TCU scored 24 points after intermission, and Clemson nearly matched that total with 23.
Do not be surprised if the game is low scoring and close at halftime. The third quarter will be the tell.
Both TCU and Clemson outscored Stanford 10-0 in the third quarter. In contrast, Stanford matched Syracuse 7-7 in the third quarter and went on to win that game, 26-24.
If the Hokies get out to a quick lead, and avoid the backup (or in this case third-string) quarterback curse - has anyone checked on the prospects of Elijah Brown pursuing a life in the church? - they should cruise to victory.
The more likely result, however, is that after a slow start, Tech makes some halftime adjustments and begins to wear down the Stanford defense in the second half, pulling away late.