Hokies Make Third-String Opposing QB Great Again
A few notes on how the Hokies fumbled away another win, followed by a deep dive into the impact of false starts on drive success and coaching prep and adjustments
Note: Data is sourced from CFDB and ESPN, except where noted. All PFF grades are preliminary, and current as of 5:00 a.m. Sunday morning (November 6). These grades can, and likely will, shift a bit, but the broader takeaways should hold true.
On Friday, in my pregame analysis of the Georgia Tech game, I wrote the following:
Without [starting quarterback Jeff] Sims, the Hokies would need to commit something on the order of 20+ penalties and 2+ turnovers to lose. I know, I’m tempting fate by even writing that sentence, but the point stands. In a month with some winnable games for Virginia Tech, this one is the most winnable.
Such is the sound of fate’s back hand. That said, you tell me if the following is not on par with 20+ penalties and 2+ turnovers:
Lost fumble at GT 22-yard line on the second drive of the game
Missed extra point after VT scored to take a 13-10 lead
Lost fumble at GT 10-yard line after VT took over at GT 32-yard line following a turnover on downs
Interception at GT 40-yard line, GT converted with a TD to take a 28-27 lead
Lost fumble at VT 42-yard line with 0:48 remaining in the game, and after an 18-yard punt return, to seal the GT win
For the game: 7 penalties for 55 yards
At the very minimum, that is 10 points left on the field (3 FGs: miss to make and two fumbles deep in GT territory to field goals, plus the missed extra point). The Hokies could have easily scored 18 more points than they did (turn the fumbles inside the GT 25-yard line into touchdowns and tack on the missing extra point as well as make the missed field goal). That would have been 45 points scored overall. At most, the Hokies left 32 points on the field (the aforementioned plus touchdowns on the drive that ended in an interception as well as the final drive of the game).
My point is, it took a massive amount of mistakes to turn this win into a loss. Everyone involved must be sick to their stomach at how this one got away.
The Impact of False Starts on Drive Success
If it feels like false starts have killed a disproportionate share of Hokie drives this year, it’s because they have. First, to set a baseline, here is the impact of false starts on all FBS teams other than Virginia Tech in 2021 and 2022 (from weeks 1-9 for each season, so not including this past weekend’s games):
That is pretty consistent. Roughly speaking, for every 20 drives that include a false start, four will end in a touchdown and three will end in a field goal. The rest end in a punt, turnover (on downs or otherwise), end of half/game, or some other related outcome.
So, we will consider ~35% of drives with a false start ending in a TD or FG our baseline. Now, let’s look at Virginia Tech:
The Hokies had their issues in 2021, but overcoming false starts was not one of them. Virginia Tech scored a TD or FG on 41% of drives in which they committed at least one false start, five points better than the rest of FBS that year. Their TD and FG rates were both 2.5 points higher than the baseline.
On the other hand, the 2022 Hokies have a success rate 10 points lower than the baseline. Even worse, 9.5 of those points are for drives ending in touchdowns. That means, whereas the average FBS team scores a TD on 1 out 5 drives in which they get flagged for a false start, the Hokies only score a TD on 1 out of 8 such drives.
Finally, not only are false starts killing a higher percentage of Hokie drives than they did last year (or than they do for the rest of FBS), the Hokies are committing a lot more of these penalties (24 vs. 17 at this point a year ago). Overcoming adversity is important following a tough loss, but limiting mistakes and overcoming adversity in games can help avoid said tough losses in the first place.
Game Prep and In-game Adjustments
Under Justin Fuente there were certainly issues around recruiting and player development, and I think assigning blame for both is trickier than it might appear, but one area where the Fuente-era Hokies seemed ahead of the curve was in offensive coaching strategy and in-game adjustments. Yes, fans complained about jet sweeps into the boundary, but let’s not forget all the big games in which the Hokie game plan was top notch (e.g., 2016 Clemson, 2017 WVU, 2018 FSU, 2019 Notre Dame, and 2020 Clemson). The Hokies were 2-3 in those games, but game prep and in-game coaching was never the issue.
I’ve been chewing on that for some time now and thinking about how Fuente’s last team compares with Pry’s first in this department. To get a sense of the quantitative difference, I created tables showing yards per play by quarter and compared the Hokies in both years to the rest of FBS. While many factors contribute to a fast start, a high yards per play average in the first quarter is suggestive of good game prep. Likewise, a bump up in the third quarter is indicative of a staff that is good at making half-time adjustments. For today, we will look at the offense only, and once again, the dataset is for weeks one through nine of both 2021 and 2022.
First, the FBS baseline:
Overall, the rest of FBS in both 2021 and 2022 have averaged about six yards per play in quarters one through three, before dipping down under 5.5 in the fourth quarter. Not only did Virginia Tech trail the FBS average in all quarters in both seasons, but it displayed different patterns:
The 2021 Hokie offense was noticeably stronger in quarters 1 and 3, suggesting a strong initial game plan, followed by adjustments from the opposing defense, with Fuente’s staff making strong good adjustments, followed by a slight drop-off in the fourth quarter.
The 2022 Hokie offense is well behind the FBS average, especially in the first half. Halftime adjustments, however, are having a huge impact, with third quarter efficiency jumping significantly before returning to the lackluster norm. There are many ways to read these numbers, but the narrative that I believe makes the most sense is that the Hokies still have a tenuous hold on the offense. Only with a week to prep and two quarters to see what the other team is doing are the Hokies able to implement offensive tweaks. If they were more comfortable in the offense, the week of game planning would have a greater impact (higher yards per play) in the first quarter and force the opposing defense to adjust. Likewise, if the players were able to better adjust on the fly, we would expect to see stronger second and fourth quarter numbers.
I had been of the mind that the 2022 offensive line’s struggles were due, in large part, to a combination of mismatched physical abilities vs. schematic requirements and brains tying up feet. I now suspect that the latter factor, brains tying up feet, is an issue at every offensive position.