Hokies Look to Hit NC State Wolfpack Right Between the Eyes

Bowl eligibility is on the line this weekend in Lane Stadium

NC State has scored more than 30 points in a game twice. One was against VMI and the other was against Marshall.

While Marshall is not a P5 team, they are a common opponent with Virginia Tech. The Hokies lost at Marshall 24-17 back in September, while the Wolfpack defeated the Thundering Herd 48-41 in October.

That was an outlier game for NC State. The Pack’s terrible offense scored a ton of points and their great defense allowed a ton of points. How on earth did all that happen?

Elementary, my dear Watson:

1. Turnovers: both teams forced three

2. Marshall attempted 52 passes and completed 29 for 315 yards; NC State sacked Marshall QB Cam Fancher 6 times and forced 2 fumbles (recovering one)

3. Kevin Concepcion had help from Trent Pennix in the passing game (3 catches, 99 yards, 2 TDs; he has totaled less than 50 yards receiving and 0 TDs the rest of the season combined)

In short, lots of havoc plays.

Marshall led 24-21 at halftime, courtesy of three scoring drives of of 34 yards or less (including one pick-six).

Eventually, Marshall put together four touchdown drives that travelled at least 65 yards, as the Herd racked up 419 yards of total offense.

Lessons from Professor Marshall T. Herd

Perhaps the most interesting stat from the Marshall-NC State game is Marshall’s third down efficiency. The Herd went 5-18 (and 1-5 on fourth down).

In summary, Marshall scored 41 points while generating 100 yards more than the average allowed by NC State, all while struggling to sustain drives. Havoc plays account for some of the delta (difference) between the expected and actual results.

Most of the remaining delta came most via big plays through the air, and I expect Tyler Bowen to attack via a similar game plan.

Take a look at Marshall’s top eight pass catchers from the NC State game:

First of all, the name at the top should be familiar. Darryle Simmons originally committed to, and enrolled at, Virginia Tech. He caught one pass for the Hokies back in 2019, then transferred to Stephen F. Austin, where he played for a couple years before making his way to Huntington.

Outside of Simmons, you can see that Marshall spread the ball around liberally, and just about everyone had at least one medium to long pass reception.

In the face of an attacking Wolfpack defense Marshall did not nibble with swing passes and quick outs. They took shots down the field.

I expect Tech to do the same.

Where and how yards will come

For such a low scoring offense, NC State has a fairly high rushing success rate (47.3%). In fact, it is 7 points higher than Virginia Tech’s (40.7%).

The Wolfpack are not particularly explosive on the ground, though. That will likely mean lots of tough, physical runs by Brennan Armstrong.

NC State’s passing game is neither efficient nor explosive.

Overall, this is the kind of offense that Tech has consistently smothered this season. In front of the home crowd on senior day, there is no reason to expect a deviation from the norm.

Marshall wasn’t the only team to score more than 40 points against the Wolfpack this season. Notre Dame scored 45 on them, in Raleigh, in September.

Sam Hartman’s 15 completions went for 286 yards and 4 TDs. Audric Estime ran for 134 yards, 80 of which came on one carry.

The numbers will be different, but expect the themes to continue.

NC State is more prone to allowing explosive runs than Virginia Tech is to generating them. Given that Tech has multiple explosive ball carriers, expect a run or two to pop on Saturday. The rest will likely be concentrated in the two- to four-yard range.

The Wolfpack allow a 40% success rate through the air, and they are as likely to allow an explosive play as Tech is to create one.

Kyron Drones will undoubtedly face pressure, and that pressure will get home a few times, but overall, he should have a good, if not great, day throwing the ball,

Lines of attack

The Hokies have found a lot of success with off-tackle sweeps, and they are sure to run some on Saturday. However, when Tech really needs yards on the ground, expect them to run right into the teeth of the Wolfpack defense.

Tech has an advantage with the Moore brothers (who have played well of late) blocking the NC State nose tackle and middle linebacker.

Individually, the Wolfpack have a lot of high graders on defense. Combining advanced stats with on-field results suggests that State’s defense is great physically, but only good mentally.

That puts on the onus on Tyler Bowen and the Hokies’ scheme. Chunk plays will come from great play design, not superior Hokie athleticism.

Nothing about NC State’s offense is concerning. Expect the Hokie defensive tackles to attack the A gaps (between the guard and center) in an effort to disrupt the run game and force Armstrong to move in the pocket.

Tight end Trent Pennix is a solid player, but at 235 pounds, he might struggle to seal the edge. Still, when he is lined up on the left side of the formation in a short yardage situation, expect the Wolfpack to run in that direction.

Who helps whom?

As detailed above, NC State has shown no ability to score serious points absent a lot of help from the opposition.

Against Marshall, seven of NC State’s eight scoring drives travelled less than 60 yards. Five travelled less than fifty.

On the flip side, the Wolfpack coughed the ball up three times each in the two games in which they allowed 40+ points.

So, if you’re Dave Doeren, the plan is simple: conservative offense + attacking defense.

Attacking defenses tend to accumulate more sacks and run stuffs. They also give up more more big plays.

Tech has played best when they have been the aggressor. And they will certainly look to reprise that role on Saturday.