Hokies Look For Easier Ride Through Non-Conference Schedule in 2023
Hokies Look For Easier Ride Through Non-Conference Schedule in 2023
Easier miles, less stress emerge as the keys to navigating September and preparing for ACC play
In Blacksburg, the Hokies kicked off training camp this week. In the Reid household, we’re wrapping up our fourth week of camp, or should I say camps plural. Each week brings new a camp for each of my two kids, along with new start and end times.
In addition to honing my organization skills, I have also spent a lot more time on the road than usual. And driving all those miles got me thinking about the difference between hard and easy miles.
In dad-land, an example of hard miles is navigating stop-and-go traffic on the construction-laden parkway, whereas easy miles are those that come on a two-lane street at a consistent 45 mph with little to no traffic.
In football, and for the purposes of this analysis, I’ll switch from miles to minutes as a unit of measure, and categorize them in one of three stress groups as follows:
High Stress - ranging from a 10 point lead to a 10 point deficit
Medium Stress - ranging from an 11 to 24 point lead or deficit
Low Stress - leading or trailing by 25 or more points
High stress situations are those in which every little thing matters. One guy takes a mental play off and bam, that could cost the team a win.
Medium stress situations are those in which the point margin is greater but the game is still in doubt, so the players and fans are still involved.
Low stress situations are when the game is no longer in doubt, so lots of players are rotating in and mistakes do not really matter.
Avoid a repeat of last season
Virginia Tech went 2-2 in non-conference games last year.
The Old Dominion game gets a lot of attention because it was the first game of the season and the Hokies made north of 5,000 mistakes on their way to a three-point loss.
The game against Liberty ended up being the last game of the season, due to the tragedy in Charlottesville. It gets remembered because Tech won.
The atmosphere was great in Lane Stadium for the West Virginia game, but the outcome (a loss), as well as that from the Wofford game (an unsatisfying win), was pretty blah.
What most forget, me included, was how close all those games were, even the “blowouts”.
Taken together, more than three-quarters of the game time during the non-conference schedule was played in high stress situations.
Put another way, the Hokies played the equivalent of three start-to-finish nail-biters, and one largely medium stress game.
And they did that against three FBS teams with a combined 16-21 record and one bad FCS team.
All those high stress minutes were both an indication of the struggles to come and their cause, in part.
Close games necessitate playing the starters more snaps. With every snap, a player’s risk of injury increases. Whereas in medium to low stress situations coaches are more likely to rotate in second string players, too many high stress minutes can lead to overuse of key players and, thus, injuries.
Mansoor Delane played very well in 2022, but he was forced into action following the season ending injury to Dorian Strong. According to PFF, Delane did not play one snap on defense in the first four games of the season. He made his debut against North Carolina in week 5, after Dorian Strong was lost for the year and after Brion Murray stepped in and struggled for the remainder of the West Virginia game.
A more desirable situation would have seen Delane rotating in as a third cornerback and getting 10 to 15 snaps in each September game, which would have eased him into college ball while simultaneously taking some of the load off Strong and Chatman.
Prospects for the 2023 non-conference schedule
As I wrote a couple weeks ago, by the numbers, the Hokies should make a bowl this season. Realistically, that means Tech needs to win at least three non-conference games, and two by comfortable margins (greater than 10 points). How likely is that?
PFF has the Hokies at #74 in their preseason power rankings and, notably, ranks their strength of schedule as the nation’s 8th toughest. Here is how Tech stacks up against its four non-conference opponents:
Old Dominion at home is the best candidate for a comfortable win and, potentially, a blowout. In the 2022 ODU game, all 60 minutes were high stress. This year, the minutes should be more evenly spread between the three groups (high, medium, and low stress).
Despite its power ranking, out of the three remaining non-conference games, Purdue, with a new coach and a new quarterback (Texas transfer Hudson Card) is Tech’s best chance at a second win by 10+ points. All that newness early in the season gives the homestanding Hokies a great chance to pull the upset.
The Hokies will get Marshall’s best shot in Huntington. A win by any margin there would be huge. The Thundering Herd will start the season with a slightly higher PFF power ranking than the Hokies, and are a good bet to be a home favorite.
The Rutgers game, meanwhile, has all the hallmarks of a four-quarter slugfest, and if I had to pick one non-conference game on which Virginia Tech’s season hinges, it would be this one.
Remember, last week in my analysis of conference games I said the same thing about the matchup with Syracuse.
Together, these two games will serve as the indicators that should clarify, by the end of October, how many wins the Hokies are likely to net when it is all said and done (e.g., including a possible bowl game):
Lose to both Rutgers and Syracuse = 5 wins or less
Go 1-1 against Rutgers and Syracuse = 6-7 wins
Beat Rutgers and Syracuse = 7-8 wins
Beat both Rutgers and Syracuse by 10+ points = 8-9 wins
The takeaway
One reason why the Hokies struggled so much in ACC play in 2022 was that some of their best players were injured and missed significant time.
Dorian Strong got hurt in the WVU game and missed the rest of the season. Mansoor Delane’s great play helped soften the blow of losing Strong, but the Hokies were so thin at cornerback that they continued to play an injured Armani Chapman opposite Delane.
Ryan Adams knows something about letting it ride easy…
Malachi Thomas played a lot of snaps as soon as he returned from a preseason injury. He promptly got reinjured and missed the rest of the season.
Other players, like Kaleb Smith, suffered minor injuries early in the season that became nagging when they could not rest due to the fact that every winnable game was close from start to finish.
In so many words, the 2022 Hokies were a high mileage team by the time they reached October.
If the Hokies are to succeed in playing longer stretches of games with a lead of more than 10 points, they will need to do two things better in 2023 than they did in 2022: score points and pressure the passer.
The first has been addressed ad nauseum, but the latter has gotten significantly less attention.
I’ll turn my gaze there next week.