Hokies Aim to Make Boston College a Trap Game
The 2023 season hangs in the balance as Virginia Tech prepares to play at Louisville
How strange a position is the Virginia Tech football team in right now?
If the Hokies upset Louisville, they will take over sole possession of second place in the ACC. And, in that case, the trip to Boston College next week suddenly takes on all the hallmarks of a trap game.
If the Hokies lose to Louisville, the BC game becomes almost a must win. Not for Tech’s conference championship game hopes, but for bowl eligibility.
To say Tech has a lot riding on this game would be the understatement of the Brent Pry era.
Level set
Let’s get one thing out of the way up front. Louisville should win this game. Comfortably.
Louisville is a balanced team that plays efficient football, both offensively and defensively. They feature a strong rushing attack and an explosive passing game. Their defense is stout.
In fact, there is not one metric on the game card that suggests Tech has a chance at pulling the upset.
Well, maybe one. That pregame win percentage of nearly 25% for the Hokies is much higher than one would expect based on the advanced stats, team records, and polls. But let’s put a pin in that for now.
Rather than presenting a balanced look at the game, I’m going to spell out where the Hokies should attack, and why.
Concentrated opposition
Louisville will trot out 11 guys on offense for every play, 5 of which will be skill position guys (plus the quarterback). While in theory any of those players is a threat to get the ball, in reality, it’s likely going to one of two players:
RB Jawhar Jordan - 40% usage on running plays, 24% overall
WR Jamari Thrash - 20% usage on passing plays, 9% overall
Shutting down those two is easier said than done because Louisville has a good offensive line.
The battle in the trenches looks evenly matched, so expect Hokies Defensive Coordinator Chris Marve to generate advantages with numbers by:
Loading the box with eight, and sometimes even nine, defenders
Blitzing (run and pass)
Bracketing Thrash (at times)
That will leave some defenders on an island. Tech will likely try to force the ball away from Louisville’s best players and toward these one-on-one matchups, which will stress Nasir Peoples, Keonta Jenkins, the cornerback not covering Thrash, and Jaylen Jones (more on him below).
Strategy
Strategically, this game is pretty straight forward for the Hokies.
The safeties are the weakest group on Louisville’s defense. When Tech wants to take a shot, expect it to be via deep posts and seam routes. If the line is holding up alright, Tyler Bowen might also try to slip in a slower developing drag route, possibly in combination with a QB rollout.
The Hokie offensive scheme will need to be top notch because there are not many obvious one-on-one matchup advantages. Mixing play concepts and throwing off defensive keys can be an equalizer. I would expect a heavy dose of misdirection in an attempt to get the defense to over-pursue.
Louisville QB Jack Plummer struggles against pressure (OFF grade of 40 vs. 84 when he has time to throw). Ball security is also an issue, especially when pressured. Ideally, Tech’s front four will be able to get pressure on their own, but if not, this is the game to blitz, and blitz liberally. Virginia Tech corners should be able to hold up fine in press man coverage.
Shutting down the run is absolutely critical. Expect Tech to stack the box in order to try to limit Jawhar Jordan, who makes the whole offense go. And keep this stat in mind: Plummer has thrown three TDs opposite six INTs on non-playaction dropbacks. However, Louisville runs playaction on 42% of passing plays, and Plummer’s TD:INT ratio on these plays is a much healthier 10:2.
Matchups
The Hokies have done a good job in recent weeks of attacking areas of the field in which they hold an advantage.
This week’s game does not present many matchup advantages, so expect the Hokies to attack (or funnel toward) these few areas relentlessly.
VT wide receivers vs. Louisville CBs not named Quincy Riley
The Cardinals have two excellent cornerbacks, but the name to focus on is Quincy Riley. He is good enough to shut down whichever outside receiver the Hokies send in his direction.
Riley has allowed 37% of attempts thrown in his direction to be completed. He has allowed one touchdown reception and has corralled two interceptions.
Riley does everything well, and Tech will probably not throw in his direction often, especially with the uncertain situation on the other side of the field.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. is usually the other starting cornerback, and he is nearly as good as Riley. However, the last two weeks he has split time with North Carolina transfer Storm Duck.
I suspect something is wrong with Brownlee, likely an injury. His performance has tailed off in parallel with the number of snaps he has played.
Expect Tech to throw a lot at Brownlee when he is in the game to test for injuries. His coverage grade has dipped below 60 in his last two games, while his tackling has remained solid. That tells me any possible injury is probably to his lower body.
Duck, who started last week, has been pretty average this year, and Tech should feel comfortable throwing at him when he is on the field.
VT secondary vs. their own hands
Jack Plummer is not a championship-caliber quarterback. In only two games this year has his PFF overall offensive grade eclipsed 64, and both of those games were against lousy competition (Indiana and Boston College).
In half of his games, Plummer’s overall grade has been below the baseline of 60.
He has thrown eight interceptions in eight games this year. He has thrown multiple interceptions in three games and has gone three games without being picked off.
Plummer has not gone two straight games this year without being intercepted, and last week he had a clean slate in that department.
His turnover worthy play rate overall is 3.6%, which is alright, but in three games this year it has been higher than 6%.
The point is, the Hokies will have their chances to snag a pick or two. And some of those chances might come off of tipped balls.
The Cardinals drop a ton of passes (9.5% to be precise). That’s crazy! The drop rate has exceeded 10% in half of Louisville’s games and maxed out at 19% against Indiana.
In sum, the outcome of this game will be highly dependent on turnover opportunity conversion. If the Hokies can convert on 75% of their turnover opportunities (fumbles and passes that DBs get two hands on), they will have a chance to win.
The most important player
Tech’s defense has its strengths and weaknesses, and these are generally well known by now.
Linebacker play has been a mess all year, but when the Hokie defense has thrived, it has gotten good play out of its safeties.
Jalen Stroman went down with an injury last week, and it is not clear at this point how much he will be able to contribute on Saturday.
His backup, Jaylen Jones, a converted wide receiver, has taken his lumps in his first season as a safety.
In this game, he is, undoubtedly, the most important player.
Jones has played in six of Tech’s eight games this year. He struggled mightily in the first three, but has played better of late.
In four out of his six games, Jones has played at least 40 snaps. Expect that to be five out of seven after this weekend.
In his last three outings, Jones’s overall defensive grade has ranged from 56 to 71.
The Hokies need him to play at this level against Louisville. When he is on the field, he is the weak link in the secondary. Given how aggressive I expect Tech’s front seven to be, it is imperative that Jones register a baseline grade (60) or higher.
Pulling it all together
On paper, and in the aggregate, this game looks very similar to the Florida St. game. There does not appear to be a path to a Hokie victory.
Appearances can be fickle, though.
Whereas the Seminoles are loaded with talent everywhere on their roster, Louisville’s is more concentrated, at least on offense.
These choke points offer the Hokies a clearer path to slowing the Cardinal offense. And slowing the offense will be key because Louisville’s defense is really good.
Virginia Tech’s straightest path to victory is to force turnovers and convert on short field opportunities. In theory, if Pitt could do it, than so can the Hokies. In practice, that’s easier to accomplish at one’s own home stadium than it is on the road.
That said, if the turnover battle is even and the Hokies can limit big plays, the talent disadvantage is not so great as to preclude victory. Still, it’ll be an uphill battle.