The Coming Inflection Point
This could be the week things finally begin to click for Virginia Tech, or it could be the week when the Hokies' bowl hopes go out the window
First, I want to share an update to yesterday’s report card article. I hit the refresh button a few hours after publishing that article and what do you know, there were new SP+ numbers. Those were the only numbers that had gotten held up in traffic on the API highway, but the new data do impact the letter grades.
Here is the updated Virginia Tech report card:
The overall grade dropped from a C to a C-, with most of the difference coming via a decline in the defensive rating (from the 68th percentile to the 56th percentile). This updated grade puts Tech on a four-to-five win pace for the season.
It is difficult to imagine the Hokies reaching bowl eligibility this year and not winning at Marshall on Saturday. As you can see from the Thundering Herd’s report card, Marshall, at a high level, has a lot in common with the Hokies
One thing to keep in mind is that I do not apply weights to any advanced stats (for example, to account for strength of schedule). SP+ is a weighted measure, and I like to show it alongside advanced stats to provide a best estimate of each team’s true performance level (SP+) along with numbers that directly reflect the eye test (unweighted advanced stats).
On paper, Marshall currently has the most explosive run game in the country. Of course, the Thundering Herd have only played Albany and East Carolina.
Odds are, that figure will decline some as Marshall plays better opponents. But, it’s possible that it will not. In that way, I consider high advanced stat rankings a ceiling and low rankings a floor.
How each team wins
Marshall has had a couple weeks to prepare for Virginia Tech. Sort of.
There is only one game’s worth of film on the Kyron Drones-led offense. Surely the Thundering Herd will do some things defensively that are aimed at confusing Drones, but the time advantage to prepare was limited to this week.
The bigger deal is on offense, where the staff has had the full two weeks to devise schematic wrinkles for a Hokie defense that has seen more than it’s fair share of busts.
An open question, though, is how much time during the off week did Marshall spend prepping for Tech, and how much did the team spend on getting better and cleaning up their mistakes.
Because outside of one quarter, Marshall has looked pretty underwhelming against middling competition.
The Herd trailed Albany 3-0 at halftime and 17-14 at the start of the fourth quarter in week 1. They ultimately won 21-17, but it was hardly a resounding home triumph.
Marshall trailed again entering the fourth quarter of its second game, at East Carolina. The deficit was, once again, three points (13-10). Marshall scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 31-13.
For those of you scoring at home, that is seven bad to average quarters of football, and only one good one. But the good one was the last one.
As my little league baseball coach loved to say, “Boys, they ain’t that good, and we ain’t that bad.”
Virginia Tech wins by…
…taking an early lead. The Hokies have been a slow starting team, scoring only two points in the first quarter (the bad punt snap against ODU).
However, Tech generally gets things going in the second quarter. Despite scoring only 3 points in the first half last week, the Hokies have scored 34 points in the second quarter this year (11.3 per game). Marshall has scored just 10 points in the first half of their two games this season.
The Hokies will jump out to an early lead thanks to an aggressive passing game. Tech ranks 17th in the nation in passing explosiveness at 1.66, while Marshall’s defense ranks 110th at 1.36. Again, I will reiterate that 110th is an unadjusted rank.
Throwing on Marshall has been high risk, high reward, though. The Thundering Herd rank 23rd in Defensive Passing Success and 33rd in DB Havoc.
Against an (overly?) aggressive secondary, Tyler Bowen will dial up healthy portions of misdirection throws and routes with doubles moves. The Marshall secondary will bite enough to get burned a couple times.
Holding a lead will prove challenging for Tech. Running Drones is a major risk as both Grant Wells and Pop Watson will not be available this week. That leaves true freshman, and former fourth stringer Dylan Wittke as the backup and walk-on Ben Locklear as the third string, Corey-Holt-at-FSU-in-2008 option.
The Hokies will hold on in the second half thanks to their significant special teams advantage. According to PFF, Virginia Tech’s special teams have graded out at 84.6 this year, compared to just 66.3 for Marshall.
Marshall wins by…
…attacking the Virginia Tech running backs at the mesh point and forcing Drones to keep the ball more than the Hokie offensive staff would like. The Marshall run defense has given up a lot of explosive plays (103rd in the nation), and Drones will probably break off a big run or two.
However, by keeping the ball in the quarterback’s hands, Marshall gives itself the opportunity to land more hits on Drones.
Speaking of hits, this may sound counterintuitive against a team with depth issues at QB, but do not expect to see Marshall blitz much against the Hokies.
Drones handled blitzes very well against Rutgers (80.5 passing grade), but struggled when he faced pressure from a four-man front.
Drones’s passing grade drops from 90.3 to 46.5 when facing pressure. Read in combination with a the 3.62 seconds of time to throw on such plays, and it is clear that Drones struggled to read the Rutgers defense, work through his progressions, and pick out the best option.
The announcers will sound like they are on a loop when they say, for the 15th time, “Drones drops to throw. Has good protection. Can’t find any options. Now he’ll scramble and just throw the ball away.”
With Alan Tisdale back to anchor the Tech defense, Marshall will struggle to run the ball consistently. Marshall’s run blocking grade (62.2) is only a little higher than Tech’s 58.5. No one will confuse Marve’s stop unit for the ‘85 Bears, but Tech presents by far the stiffest defensive challenge to date for Marshall.
However, the Hokies will eventually bust some assignments in the second half.
Marshall’s rushing success rate of just 32.8% suggests that the Thundering Herd will struggle to gain yards consistently on the ground. However, the Herd’s rushing explosiveness (1.70) is tops in the nation, and the fourth quarter will feel like deja vu all over again for the Hokies.
In the end, Virginia Tech does a lot of things well, but still loses its third straight game.
What say you, oh great and powerful model?
Virginia Tech is a five-point underdog on the road this week in a game that is expected to be a low scoring affair (over/under set at 41.5). Tech’s pregame win percentage of 36.5% signals an uphill battle for Pry & Co.
The model, which is 2-1 in its Hokie game picks this year (correct in the ODU and Rutgers picks, incorrect in the Purdue pick), expects Tech to keep it close this week, ultimately losing by a couple field goals.
However, the model’s algorithm does not directly consider the following:
This is a massive game for Marshall
While not a “must win” game for Virginia Tech, the Hokies are desperate, given the upcoming games against Pitt and Florida St.
Tech expects to get some guys back from injury this week
The Hokies have executed nary a true trick play in the Pry era
Either way, all indications suggest a close, hard fought battle between two teams with more questions than answers at this point in the season.
Win or lose, Tech’s game against Marshall is shaping up to be an inflection point in the 2023 season.