Getting Down to Business
Last week's unexpected loss makes the BC game a must win for Brent Pry & Co.
Back in August, Ricky LaBlue wrote a column for Dulles District in which he opined that, due to a unique confluence of factors, Brent Pry needed to win in year 1. Not win big, just win. I did not agree at the time the article went to press, but I do now. Last week’s loss at ODU changed the complexion of how the fans view the 2022 team and the new coaching staff. The honeymoon is over. Pry needs to get out of Justin Fuente’s shadow as soon as possible, and doing so requires beating Boston College. But, as this this week’s game preview viz shows, that might not be easy.
Still just a smidge better?
Over the last five years, Virginia Tech has averaged nearly half a win more than Boston College, while recruiting slightly higher rated players who generally comprised better overall recruiting classes. The Hokies also hold a slight edge in NFL draft picks during that time. And one game into the 2022 season, according to PFF, Virginia Tech grades out higher in four of the seven non-special teams position groups. It hasn’t always produced the desired outcome on the field, but the Hokies have held a slight advantage, as a program, over BC for years. But is that changing?
ELO, an advanced stat used for rating teams and generating win probabilities, has trended downward for both teams since 2017. Entering Saturday’s game, the Eagles maintain both a higher ELO and a better FPI ranking (72 vs. 85 for VT), although the figures for both teams are below average. Boston College has reeled in higher ranked recruiting classes in two of the last three years, and the Eagles have defeated the Hokies in three out of the last four matchups.
This game is an inflection point in more ways than one. Boston College wins, and we can comfortably conclude that the Eagles, as a football program, have bypassed the Hokies, at least for the time being. A BC win would also make Pry 0-2 as a head coach, and nudge a fanbase desperate for reasons to believe toward early preparations for basketball season. For a September game between two very average teams, there sure is a lot on the line.
Regression to the mean, but where is that?
Had Virginia Tech taken advantage of just a few of the opportunities it squandered last week against ODU, it would have emerged from Norfolk with a comfortable win. Boston College was not exactly an efficiency machine in the opening week, but in a disappointing loss to Rutgers, the Eagles more than doubled the Hokies’ points per opportunity.
Even undermanned on offense due to injuries, it is just not mathematically possible for the Hokies to maintain such a low points per opportunity rate. I fully expect this metric to begin regressing to the mean. Where is that mean? Hard to say, but my guess, based on 60 minutes of football and the makeup of the roster, is somewhere in the 3.5 to 4.5 neighborhood. In contrast, I could see Boston College’s number actually dropping as the season goes on, due to the lack of experience and talent along the offensive line, as well as their small skill position players. TE George Takacs is the only real redzone threat for BC, whereas Tech features (at least moderate) threats at each skill position, when healthy. But the Hokies are still banged up, so expect a couple VT touchdowns to turn into field goals this week.
Fireworks
Another number that I would expect to turn around for VT is defensive PPA. The current negative rate reflects a Hokies defense that had ample opportunities to score last week, but ultimately generated only one turnover and no points. The Hokies are bigger, stronger, and longer in the secondary than BC is at receiver, and Phil Jurkovec, despite all the accolades, has thrown just 2 TDs opposite 3 INTs in two career games against VT.
I wrote last week about Grant Wells possibly feeling the need to fit balls into tight windows in order to make plays. That proved true, but the issue is orders of magnitude more true for Jurkovec.
Stingy defenses tend to apply pressure to stagnant offenses slowly at first, then all at once. Think about the countless games in the Bud Foster era (Georgia Tech in ‘05 is a prime example) in which a strong defensive performance in the first half, coupled with opportunistic offense, caused the opposing QB to press, resulting in a spate of second half turnovers in a short amount of time. Saturday’s game appears to have some of those makings. Boston College does not generate much explosiveness (or many yards) from its run game, and the Eagles only have two pass catchers of note.
No secrets
Last week, 17 of Phil Jurkovec’s 23 completions were to either WR Zay Flowers (10) or TE George Takacs (7). Not surprisingly, those were the only two pass catchers to net a PFF offensive grade above 62. Flowers averaged 7.8 yards after the catch, but the other wideouts, Jaelen Gill and Jaden WIlliams, both averaged just 1.5.
So, it is clear that when Boston College attempts a pass, they will look to those two guys almost exclusively. However, they each possess the same weakness - neither has particularly good hands.
Flowers has blazing speed, which helps generate separation, so expect lots of safety help over the top. Nasir Peoples needs to play well for Tech (and not get caught peeking in the backfield on play action passes). I would expect Chamarri Connor to blanket Takacs in much the same manner he did Zack Kuntz last week.
Right between the eyes
If we are going to see fireworks this week, I would expect most of them to come from the Hokies defense. Most, but not all. I agree with Brandon Patterson’s assessment, published earlier this week on Techsideline.com, of how Tech might try to get the ball to Keshawn King in space:
Barring a heroic comeback from Kaleb Smith, I’d imagine the Hokies might be leaning even more on their tight ends, even though I’m not quite sure they’re up for the task. Getting more creative with the screen game (if it’s in the playbook) could be where we see them go next week.
The Eagles lack athleticism in the front-seven, so scheming some openings for King in the pass game makes sense, especially if the interior of the two lines play like they did last week:
Absent more effective run blocking by the guards and Johnny Jordan at center, King will struggle to find creases up the middle. Still, these Hokies hold the advantage in pass blocking, so Wells should not have to worry about consistent pressure in his face. Whether it is via screens, passes out to the flat, or possibly even a wheel route, watch for the matchup of Keshawn King vs. the BC linebackers. Also, don’t count out the potential for a big play on a check-down. I would expect King to be targeted at least five times in the passing game, and if he contributes around 50 yards receiving, Tech is likely to win the game.
Beyond that, we could see a pretty vanilla offering from the Hokies offense. If the defense plays as well as it did last week, and I suspect it will, the Hokies won’t need much from the offense. Just don’t blow the game…again.
Gut Feelings
I was expecting a close game last week, but I think this one will be decided by more than 10 points. Trouble is, it could go either way. It’s a night game in Lane Stadium, and both teams are desperate to get a win. My gut tells me the Hokies will generate turnover worthy plays at a rate similar to last week, but this week they will hold on to the ball. This also feels like the kind of game where we could see the Hokies defense get into the endzone via an interception return.
On this week’s Two Deep: Hokies Under the Influence podcast, Pete Bertheaud noted that Virginia Tech is 31-3 in home openers since 1988. As I have demonstrated throughout this article, Virginia Tech has slightly better players who are playing just a bit better than Boston College’s. The Hokies are playing at home, at night. Based on the numbers alone, the spread seems about right, if slightly conservative. But if we factor in emotions and consider the key advanced metrics, I expect some fireworks both in the sky and on the field. All told, I’m thinking a 27-13 Virginia Tech win, so bet the under and for Hokies to cover the spread.
But just don’t bet too much. I like the 27-13 final score more than I do Tech being on the winning end of it.
Record outright: 0-1
Record against the spread: 0-1
Record over/under: 0-1