Getting Better
Did a 16 point loss on the road just turn Virginia Tech's season around (for the better)?
Note: Data is sourced from CFDB and ESPN, except where noted. All PFF grades are preliminary, and current as of 5:00 a.m. Sunday morning (October 9). These grades can, and likely will, shift a bit, but the broader takeaways should hold true.
Well, that was exciting, even if the final result was unsatisfying. Malachi Thomas’s return brought the offense to life, Kaleb Smith showed that he really can be a WR1 in the ACC, and Dae’Quan Wright continues to impress. On the negative side:
VT kicking and punting - what was that?
The defense, once again, struggled to get a key stop
RT is a real issue for the Hokies
WR depth looks real thin after Kaleb Smith
Like many readers, I cycled through the following emotions as the game progressed:
VT is going to blow Pitt out and turn around its season
Pitt is going to blow VT out, just like everyone expected
This game might just go down to the wire
Graphically, those feelings looked like this:
Ultimately, though, most of what I wrote in the lead up to the game held. The model called the game 49-17 for Pitt. Pitt finished with 45 points, but Tech overshot the mark by 12. Here, I want to note two things, and I’ll lead off with Malachi Thomas. In his first action of the 2022 season, Thomas carried the ball 15 times for 84 yards and TD. He also caught 5 passes for 14 yards. The model assumes past is prologue. In the recent past, Thomas was not playing, and that had a negative effect on the Virginia Tech offensive metrics that the model looks at, not to mention the overall game results. But what about Keyshawn King? King indeed has played well, but he has battled injuries and has not received an RB1 carry volume since the ODU game. In actuality, Thomas took carries that would have otherwise gone to Jalen Holston or Chance Black. The difference was immediate and significant.
Second, remember I wrote this last Friday:
And finally, back in 2012, the year that Tech lost the 10-win streak, the slumping Hokies rose to the challenge against an excellent Florida St. team. The Hokies took the lead with 2:19 to go on a Cody Journell 21-yard field goal. (A piece of trivia: I was the radio voice of the Giles Spartans for Journell’s first two years of high school). With 40 seconds remaining, E.J. Manuel connected with Rashad Greene on a 39-yard TD pass that won the game for the Seminoles.
I hate to say it, but out of those three games [2014 Ohio St. and 2019 Notre Dame were the others], this one feels most like the FSU game from 2012. Those Hokies, lacking talent at the skill positions, struggled to move the ball consistently all season. Against FSU, the offense only scored 20 points, but a safety had the Hokies up by two entering the final minute of play.
Tech’s offense scored 22 points against the Panthers. The remaining seven came off a blocked punt (the Pitt punter first dropped a bad snap) that the Hokies recovered in the endzone for a touchdown. That play, like the safety in 2012, kept Tech in the game, but big plays down the stretch by Pitt slammed the door shut soon thereafter. The combination of missed scoring opportunities for VT and big plays offensively for the opponent was the difference again, just as it was in 2012.
VT overperformed, but not enough to win
In my preview analysis I detailed what Virginia Tech needed to do to win the game:
For the Hokies to have any chance at all this weekend, they would need to see the offensive line bust out of its slump. What would that look like? Two hundred yards rushing as a team, average 4.5 yards per carry, and at least three runs of greater than 10 yards, including one over 40. There is absolutely no reason to believe that will happen, but the Hokies are due. They are due to put together a complete game up front, due to have a good game offensively, due to play well in Pittsburgh, and due to pull an upset.
Before I examine each of those points in detail, I do want to note that the run blocking on Saturday was pretty atrocious. Only Johnny Jordan (62.0) received a passing grade. And yet, and still, VT had it’s best game running the football since ODU. Yes, Malachi Thomas makes that much of a difference.
Point 1 - rush for 200 yards as a team
Fail - the Hokies ran for only 126 yards, although they did have 84 yards at halftime. The limited output in the second half was mostly due to circumstances (Tech faced multiple double-digit deficits), but then, that is telling. Rushing for 200 yards would have told us that VT was in control, or at least competitive, throughout the entire game
Point 2 - average 4.5 yards per carry
Fail - the Hokies averaged 4.2 yards on 30 carries. While that is the best mark of the season, and the ability to consistently gain 3-5 yards on each running play helped keep the Hokies in the game, winning football requires a higher yards per carry average.
Point 3 - at least 3 runs greater than 10 yards
Succeed - Thomas, Keyshawn King, and Grant Wells all had carries of 10 yards or more. However, on the subpoint of having at least one run go for 40 yards, the Hokies technically failed. I say technically because Thomas’s 29-yard run and King’s 19-yarder were both touchdowns. Had the Hokies scrimmaged from their own 20-yard line, the end result would have still been the same - touchdown.
Ascending to the edge of bowl eligibility
Prior to the Pitt game, my model forecasted that Virginia Tech would finish the season 3-9. Following all of Saturday’s games, the model now has Virginia Tech going 5-7, with the Miami and Virginia games flipping into the win column and the loss to Liberty down to a single point. While the model still likes Duke and NC State to win comfortably, my own two eyes tell me they’ve looked shaky in recent weeks. Conversely, Georgia Tech has won two in a row, so a win over the Yellow Jackets is not guaranteed.
Is Dae’Quan Wright a TE or a WR?
During the broadcast on Saturday I heard more Bucky Hodges comparisons to Dae’Quan Wright. He is a difference maker out on the field, and it at this point it would be very difficult to limit him to four games to maintain his redshirt year. More and more the fanbase is debating what position is his best. I’ll answer it upfront - at present, it does not matter. The tight ends are not playing well and receiver depth is sorely lacking. The point is, whatever position he knows and whatever portion of the playbook he is comfortable executing, he needs to be in the game in those situations. And, the coaching staff needs prioritize getting him up to speed on the rest of the playbook in order to avoid being predictable from a play calling perspective.
Tight End
At tight end, PFF grades suggest that Wright has made a winning case not only for TE2 snaps, but also TE1. First, to set the table, here are the trends in snaps played overall and on run blocking plays. Note, Wright has been in on very few running plays.
Now, take a look at the trends in overall and run blocking grades:
De luliis and Gallo are slowly improving in run blocking, but in his tiny sample, Wright is improving faster, and from a higher baseline. Overall, De luliis and Gallo have essentially plateaued at a very low level. Wright played well in his first game (against UNC) and really hit his stride this past week against Pitt.
Wide Receiver
Looking at just the top four available receivers (that excludes Stephen Gosnell, Jaylen Jones, and the others who have only played a handful of snaps), we can see that the receivers are playing more snaps over time, compared to the tight ends, who are playing less.
Outside of Smith and Wright, most every player at both positions has struggled to get open this year. I suspect the deciding factor in shifting more plays to the receivers is their run blocking grades. The receivers are blocking better than the tight ends.
Notice, also, the consistency of the wide receivers in run blocking. outside of Lofton, the others are performing within a very tight expected range. That gets back to the consistency issues Brent Pry has talked about the last few weeks. The media has asked a lot about the offensive line’s run blocking, but Pry keeps pulling back and talking about all 11 players. These graphs demonstrate some of what he is seeing and why he is loathe to place all the blame on the line.
But, I digress. The key takeaway is that this offense needs Dae’Quan Wright to see increased snaps. And that is all the more true with Kaleb Smith getting knocked out of last week’s game. The Miami game is winnable. In fact, my model has the Hokies just squeaking by the Hurricanes. But as we learned this week, the model expects past to be prologue, i.e., it expects Kaleb Smith to play around 35 snaps and Wright 18. Smith’s status for Saturday is up in the air. Even if he plays, as the data above show, Wright is a difference maker. If the Hokies are going to push for bowl eligibility, and those extra bowl practices, they need Wright on the field for 40+ plays this weekend.