Last week I wrote the following about Virginia Tech’s likelihood of finding success in the running game:
Forty carries for 200+ yards is very possible, and would probably result in a Virginia Tech win.
I took a screenshot of the moment when the Hokies hit 200 yards on the ground. Turns out, they did in half the carries, thanks in large part to Terion Stewart’s 85-yard run.
As good as home cooking tastes, the Hokies are likely to encounter a much stiffer Wake Forest defense this week. On the flip side, the Wake offense does not pack nearly as much offensive punch.
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Wake Forest’s defense is much better than NC State’s.
The Demon Deacons are excellent against the pass and solid against the run.
It is very possible that Wake will stack the box, similar to what the Wolfpack did last week, and trust its secondary to hold up on the outside. Given Tech’s youth along the offensive line, that would probably be a sound strategy.
Regardless of what the defense does, look for Tech to try to establish the run with the one-two punch of Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins. We have yet to see the Hokies give either back significant carries in a game, much less both in the same game.
Wake’s defensive numbers suggest that the best strategy for Tech’s offense this week is to give the ball to their stocky running backs and pound away on the defense for four quarters. The hope would be that the defense wears down as the game goes on.
An ideal breakdown of designed runs would be the following:
Hawkins: 18 carries
Stewart: 15 carries
Drones: 8 designed carries
Stewart played a great game last week, but some of the pain he dishes out via his love of contact does reflect back on him. If he’s going to make it through the rest of the season, the Hokies really need to limit his touches. Fifteen carries is a logical maximum for one game.
Hawkins offers much more in the passing game and has demonstrated better durability. so he should get more snaps and more carries.
The two running backs are the highest graders on the Tech offense through five games:
Stewart: 79.5 offense, 41.9 pass, 87.1 run
Hawkins: 76.9 offense, 66.2 pass, 77.9 run
Wake does have a very high defensive stuff rate (27.6%), so it will be important for Tech’s line to get a good push up front.
Finally, Wake is very good at limiting opponents to field goal attempts once they get inside the 40-yard line. John Love will likely attempt three or four field goals, but it is important that the Hokies also score some touchdowns.
When Virginia Tech is on defense
Wake Forest appears weakest up front on offense. The Deacons allow a stuff (2 yards or less) on 25.2% of their runs.
Meanwhile, six out Virginia Tech’s seven highest graders on defense play along the defensive line.
As of Saturday morning, Wake quarterback Robby Ashford and running back Demond Claiborne are both listed as probable. However, they will not be 100%.
Claiborne is very hit or miss. At first blush, his stats look pretty gaudy (8.0 yards per carry jumps off the screen). However, he put up more than half of his total yards on Western Carolina.
He did play well against Georgia Tech last week, though, running for over 100 yards on 21 carries.
Ashford has thrown for at least 200 yards in every game this season, but his completion rate is under 60%, and he has only thrown one touchdown opposite three interceptions.
Ashford is a capable runner when healthy, so keep an eye on his mobility early in the game.
Wake Forest has only played two P4 teams this year, which makes their 37.0% success rate worse than it appears. And it looks none-too-good.
Overall, if the Tech defense of weeks 1, 4, and 5 shows up today inside Lane Stadium. then Wake Forest should struggle to move the ball consistently. In that case, twenty points allowed looks like a reasonable ceiling.
X-factors
Wake has lost two games in a row and is coming off a gut-wrenching, referee-assisted, overtime defeat at the hands of Georgia Tech.
The Deacons had sixteen days to prepare for that game and led by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
With their best offensive players battling injuries and the team trying to right itself after such a grueling loss, it is an open question just how much fight the Demon Deacons will bring to Blacksburg.
If Tech can wear Wake down, how soon will doubt creep in?
Meanwhile, the Hokies are in the exact opposite position. After losing their first three games, Tech has won two straight and is getting healthy just as conference play ramps up.
The Hokies have performed miserably at home this year, a trend unlikely to continue.
Philip Montgomery needs five more wins to become Virginia Tech’s full-time head coach, and these are the sorts of games Brent Pry always won by a million points.
Monty isn’t Pry, which is generally a good thing. In this instance, though, the result will probably be a more workmanlike, grind it out sort of game that the Hokies stand a great chance of winning.