First Quarter Report Card

Virginia Tech shows continued improvement, on pace for 9 wins

Sep 19, 2024

Although the Hokies have shown less consistency than many expected early in the season, the first quarter report card, utilizing the exact same methodology as last year, shows that Virginia Tech has improved since the end of the last season.

The Hokies finished the 2023 season as a C+ team (66th percentile in overall SP+). The 2024 offense has improved from the 54th percentile to the 68th. The defense, meanwhile, is up from the 69th to the 74th percentile.

For historical context, the 2016 team, which won 10 games, had a B+ final grade.

84th percentile overall
71st percentile offense
84th percentile defense

This year’s team most closely resembles the 2019 team that started 2-2, entered the final game of the season 8-3, nearly won the Coastal Division but lost at UVA, then lost a heartbreaker in the bowl game to finish 8-5.

Both teams have played at a B- level, although the 2024 team (75th percentile) has netted a higher overall SP+ percentile than the 2019 team (72nd percentile).

Considering how close that 2019 team came to winning nine (or more) games - it lost to Notre Dame, UVA, and Kentucky in the final minute - the 2024 team would seemingly have a good chance to finish with nine wins.

In addition, the 2024 team’s SP+ offense, defense, and overall percentiles line up with previous nine-win Hokie teams.

Reaching 10 wins will require the defense to improve from the 74th percentile to around the 90th. Given the injuries at linebacker, that is a tough ask.

The good, the bad, and the ugly

Team

GOOD - The Hokies ended last year ranked 110th in the nation in DB Havoc. Currently, Tech is ranked 11th.
BAD - Tech is ranked 102nd in EPA on rushing plays allowed, a precipitous decline from 74th last year. When it really matters, the Hokies have not gotten many stops on the ground.
UGLY - The Hokies have dropped from 19th in DB Havoc allowed to 88th this year.

Players

GOOD - Linebacker was by far the worst position group in 2023. The average grade of the three linebackers who have played the most snaps has risen from 54.5 to 65.3.
BAD - The offense has been inconsistent through one-quarter of the season, and the average player grades tell the story. Despite returning nearly every starter and getting Ali Jennings back, the grades have basically flat-lined.
UGLY - Depending on how much the returning safeties improved in the offseason, the secondary was supposed to be a relative strength this year. Instead, the average grade has declined by nearly 6 points, driven mainly by Dorian Strong, whose current grade is about 24 points lower than it was last year.

Room for improvement

If the Hokies are going to meet expectations and win 9-10 games…

…then Tech will have to find a left guard who can play at a baseline level (grade of 60 from PFF) or better, Dorian Strong will have to up his game to a level commensurate with his play in 2023, and the most talented and highest performing defensive tackles (Aeneas Peebles and Kelvin Gilliam) will need to get a higher percentage of snaps.

If Pry & Co. can fix all three of the above areas while holding everything else constant, the Hokies will be in contention for a playoff bid at the end of the regular season.

Fix two out of three and the Hokies are probably looking at 8 to 9 wins.

If Tech only improves in one area, or none, then the Hokies will likely finish with 6-7 wins.

The ACC race

Despite the loss to Vanderbilt, the Hokies are likely to be favored in all but two of their remaining games (Miami and Clemson).

*Preseason bias in the SP+ model has kept FSU (0-3) above Cal (3-0), but likely not for long.*

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the ACC is full of C+ to B- teams. Eight of them, in fact. And that’s not counting Florida St., a team that is sinking like a stone.

Miami, which has looked great in jumping out to a 3-0 record, may be a bit overrated, as the win at Florida looks less impressive with each Gator loss.

Louisville hasn’t played anyone, Clemson got manhandled by Georgia in week 1, and North Carolina has already lost its starting QB for the season.

The point is, the Hokies are right in the thick of the ACC race.

If Tech really is a B- sort of team, then it is likely to go 5-3 in the conference, which would translate to 7-8 wins overall and mid-tier bowl.

But if Tech ends up being more of a B to B+ team, then we’re talking 6 to 7 wins in conference and 9 to 10 overall.

With the muddled middle, there is a fine line between good and great. Currently, Tech is straddling that line.

The next two weeks should clarify the Hokies’ place in the conference as well as the nation.