First ODU, Now This
First ODU, Now This
Another in-state foe, another small stadium, and another likely loss. But no one can complain about the roster this week.
The preview viz is perplexing this week. Best that I can tell, Virginia Tech has better players than Liberty, and they are actually playing slightly better, as individuals. But the team results are nothing compared to Liberty’s. FPI expects the 2-8 Hokies to win 2.9 games this season. In other words, it expects Tech to beat Virginia. FPI ranks Virginia Tech 99th in the nation, but only has the 8-2 Liberty Flames at 68th. So, even though the Flames are enjoying a lot of success this year, and the Hokies are not, FPI is still skeptical.
According to SRS (simple rating system), which factors in margin of victory and strength of schedule, there is more separation between the two teams. It has the Hokies ranked 110th and Flames ranked 63rd. Assuming a field goal worth of home field advantage, SRS calls for a 13-point Liberty win.
My multivariate model expects a one-score game (28-22 in favor of the Flames), like many Liberty games this year. Las Vegas expects a slightly lower scoring game and a 10-point Liberty win.
So the predictions, driven by varying data points, are all over the place. I’m biased, of course, but I actually think my own model will prove the best predictor this week. Here is why.
Recruiting
Liberty’s coaching staff may have the team playing at its absolute peak potential, but the program has recruited surprisingly poorly for a team that has averaged eight wins per year over the last five years. Coaching and development can only squeeze so much good play out of a given group of players. At some point bigger, faster, and stronger matters. It may not matter enough to win, but it should be more than enough to keep this game close.
Liberty has just one position group, the defensive line, in which the starters have an average PFF grade over 70. The Hokies are banged up, but the Flames are dealing with injuries too (it is, after all, mid-November), and Virginia Tech has more depth. For example, both teams will start backup running backs. Going on PFF grade - advantage Hokies, and by a wide margin. My point is, the Jimmies and Joes alone should keep Tech in this game, and if they don’t, feelings within the fanbase could get real negative, real quick.
When Virginia Tech has the Ball
Advantage: Liberty Defense
Liberty’s defense is not quite as good as Virginia Tech’s offense is bad, but it’s close. The Liberty defense’s passing EPA is higher than the VT offense’s, meaning that the Hokies should have some opportunities in the passing game, but past performance suggests they will not capitalize on them.
The advanced stats suggest this will be a hit or miss game for Grant Wells through the air, so expect a comparatively lower completion rate and comparatively higher yards per completion. Liberty creates more havoc in the backend and especially in the front seven than the Hokies have seen this year. At the same time, if VT can do a decent job in pass protection (a big if these days), the delta in passing play explosiveness portends opportunities for someone like Caleb Smith to catch a few deep balls.
Expect Liberty to move an extra man into the box to try to shut down the Virginia Tech run game. The advanced stats show that Liberty’s defense does a pretty good job limiting the yards per carry on an average run, but that they are prone to giving up some big plays on the ground. This matchup suggests that Keshawn King will have at least a couple big gains in the run game. The difference between winning or losing may come down to whether or not he can fully break one, or if he gets tripped up for a gain in the 10-15 yard range.
When Liberty has the Ball
Slight Advantage: Liberty Offense
Virginia Tech is thin in the secondary and, despite a propensity to throw interceptions, Liberty’s quarterbacks have also had decent success throwing the ball. That said, the turnover issue is real, and glaring, with a whopping 6.2% of passing plays being worthy of a turnover (compared to 2.8% for VT).
Assuming the Flames throw the ball 30 times, the Hokies should expect 2 of them to be turnover worthy. If ever there was a good week for the Tech defense to hold onto to a possible interception, this is it. Tech’s passing play EPA would be better if they held on to more interceptions. They haven’t, though, and if past is prologue, they won’t this week either. And if given the extra opportunities, Liberty will make Tech pay.
I like Tech’s chances to shut down the run game. Liberty’s starter, who was having a great year, suffered a season ending injury earlier this month. The backup, Shedro Louis, is small and averages barely four yards per carry. What on paper appears to be a slight advantage for Tech, should be a solid one on the field this week.
Gut Feelings
I really like where the model settled this week. I think the Hokies will make a few plays through the air and probably generate a turnover or two, but they will also leave some opportunities on the field. Liberty will probably end up with more yards rushing than they should because they will play with a lead and the passing game will open up the run game to a certain extent. Still, every stat displayed should be considered within the context of Liberty’s 115th ranked strength of schedule.
Virginia Tech has better players across the board. A favorable measure of the team’s situation is that there is poor alignment between what the players do well and the scheme the coaches want to run. A less favorable view would be that there is misalignment within the coaching ranks, and, as a result, schemes between position groups are not gelling on the whole. The worst case is that a number of of the coaches are not as good as we had all hoped they would be. I think this game will go a long way toward clarifying which of these options is the best fit. Based on ability alone, the Hokies should win by 10 points. Based on their play this year, they should lose by 10 to 13 points. Ability matters, but level of play matters more. I’ll stick with the model’s call: Liberty 28, Virginia Tech 22.
Record outright: 6-4
Record against the spread: 4-6
Record over/under: 3-7