First Half Report Card
Despite 1-2 mark in Q2, Virginia Tech remains contender to make inaugural 12-team playoff field
Virginia Tech’s first half SP+ percentiles are down just a bit from where they were three games into the season.
The offense has declined from the 70th percentile to the 66th, while the defense has declined from the 74th to the 70th.
The overall result is marginal, though, with Tech’s SP+ rating declining from the 75th to the 74th percentile. The team is still on pace to win eight to nine games.
The more important changes lie below the surface. The advanced stats reveal a team that is defending the run much better now (EPA has jumped 33 spots), mainly due to limiting explosive plays (the Hokies have risen an incredible 69 places in defensive Explosiveness on rushing plays).
Defensive Success on passing plays has declined 24 places, due primarily to Tech’s inability to get off the field on third down. How many times have we seen the Hokies force the opposing offense into a 3rd-and-long opportunity, only to allow a back breaking catch just beyond the sticks?
Offensively, rushing play EPA (+25 places) and Explosiveness (+52) have both improved significantly. The Hokies still allow too many defensive stuffs, which is the main factor behind the team’s mediocre success rate.
The passing game has been a mixed bag. EPA (-24 spots) and Explosiveness (-23) are both down, while DB Havoc allowed has improved mightily (+37). Passing Success has declined marginally (-8).
Altogether, the Hokies are a B- team that could rise to B level and, if everything falls into place, even push toward B+ territory.
The remaining schedule
The SP+ numbers will continue to move around each week, but at present, all of Virginia Tech’s remaining games are against teams within 23 spots, plus or minus, of the Hokies.
In other words, every game is winnable, but every game is also losable.
Pry & Co. are either going to start winning one possession games or face a fanbase armed with pitchforks.
Four out of the final six games will be played at Lane Stadium, and Tech has an open week before the road game at Duke.
Of the remaining six opponents, only Clemson and Virginia are balanced in terms of SP+ percentiles on offense vs. defense. The other four teams are heavily slanted in one direction (Offense: Georgia and Syracuse) or the other (Defense: Duke and Boston College).
Overall, the Hokies are likely to be favored in four of the remaining games. The matchup with Duke could go either way, and the Hokies will almost surely be home underdogs against Clemson.
The playoff race
Notre Dame has recovered from its loss to Northern Illinois and remains firmly in contention to make the playoff.
If the Irish get a bid, then 10 spots would most likely be split among P4 team.
If the Irish drop another game (or two), the SEC, followed by the ACC, is best positioned to nab the additional bid.
There is a chance that teams in the Big 12 beat each up to the point where their champion is not among the four highest rated conference champions, which could open the door to two bids going to G5 schools and none going to the Big 12.
At present, the most likely allocation is the following:
SEC: 4 teams
Big Ten: 3
ACC: 2
Big 12: 1
Notre Dame
Highest rated G5 conference champion
At present, the top 35 teams are realistically still in contention to make the playoff.
Virginia Tech sits right smack dab in 35th place in SP+.
The straightest line from 3-3 to securing an at-large playoff bid would be for the Hokies to win all of their remaining games, but not play in the ACC Championship game (which will likely be a playoff elimination contest).
I expect the controversy this year to be about whether the playoff committee will “punish” teams for playing in, and losing, conference championship games. My guess is that they will (as they have in the past) and the reason given will be that with these huge conferences, who makes it to the conference championship will all come down to tiebreakers.
Roughly speaking, the group of playoff contenders will get whittled down as follows:
Start of November - top 30 teams
Mid-November - top 25 teams
Start of December - top 20 teams
Somehow, the Hokies are still in contention. And if they can win the next two games, both of which are at home, they will remain in contention and set up an early November elimination game at Syracuse (which is no doubt as chilling for you to read as it is for me to type).