Contender or Pretender?
Hokies prep for return to the program's house of horrors
What do you think? Does Kyle McCord have another three pick-six game in him?
Yeah, me neither.
Virginia Tech is likely to get McCord and the Syracuse offense’s best shot a week after their Thursday night debacle at Pittsburgh.
Lost in that mess was a pretty good defensive performance. Despite five total turnovers, the Orange defense only allowed Pitt’s offense to gain 217 yards on 44 plays.
The Panthers rushed the ball 22 times for just 73 yards, which amounts to 3.3 yards per carry.
That is pretty impressive, considering Syracuse trailed by double digits for all but 6.5 minutes of game time.
So, the Orange are a capable, if not entirely consistent football team. What should we expect out of them on Saturday?
Pretty average offense and defense (according to SP+), and both units are trending down
Offense likes to throw the ball, but is not particularly explosive, prefers quick hitters, stays ahead of the chains
Defense allows opposing offenses to stay on schedule and has trouble generating stops inside its own 40-yard line.
Awful special teams (20th percentile in FBS)
Talent matches Virginia Tech’s, following a portal buying spree in the offseason
In the aggregate, this is a matchup between two fairly equal teams, with maybe a slight advantage to Virginia Tech.
However, games are not played in the aggregate. Individual matchups matter, and it is here that the Hokies have some distinct advantages.
When the Hokies have the ball
For the first time this season, Virginia Tech is expected to field a starting offense comprised entirely of players whose grade for the season is at least 60 (the PFF baseline).
The Hokies have an advantage in the trenches, assuming Xavier Chaplin is able to play and does not get reinjured during the game (a big assumption).
Syracuse is strongest in its back-seven, so I would expect this to be a game in which Tyler Bowen looks to establish the run from the opening snap.
I would not be surprised to see Jeremiah Coney get at least five carries this week. He is a better fit for the Hokies’ outside zone rushing scheme than is Malachi Thomas.
But Thomas could also get more carries than usual.
Brent Pry said in his Tuesday press conference that Bhayshul Tuten was “probable” this week, following a painful looking injury late in the Georgia Tech game.
The consensus thinking seems to be that he will play like normal.
I’m not so sure about that.
From Andy Bitter’s reporting at TechSideline, it does not sound like he has practiced much, if at all, this week.
Tech should be able to throw the ball with some success against Syracuse, but the matchups suggest a 60:40 run/pass split.
Those carries are not all going to Tuten. In fact, I doubt he runs the ball more than 15 times.
The rest of the carries will get split between Drones, Thomas, and Coney. If possible, the Hokies will want to keep Drones fresh for Clemson next week, when he will need to carry the ball more.
So, expect one of the backup tailbacks to get more carries than usual this week.
When Syracuse has the ball
Syracuse has a lot of skill position talent, but a pretty average offensive line.
Tech is weakest at safety (watch Mose Phillips - something is up with him; his PFF grades are trending down, which I’ve said for a couple weeks indicates a possible undisclosed injury), and if McCord is given time, he will look to exploit the deep middle portion of the field.
Expect Tech to play a lot of man-to-man defense this week. McCord is a statue, so there is no need to worry about him scrambling or keeping the ball on designed runs. Cam Ward he is not.
If the Hokies can consistently win the battle up front, which PFF grades suggest they should, then I would not be surprised to see a lot of dime looks, with Caleb Woodson at the Mike position and Keonta Jenkins and Dante Lovett on the field at the same time.
Press coverage combined with an attacking, twisting, stunting front will help negate Tech’s liabilities at safety.
And if the Hokies can take away McCord’s first read, APR and friends could get home more than a few times.
McCord has been sacked 16 times this season, and he has finished with negative rushing yards in five out Syracuse’s seven games.
Offensive position groups
The offenses are nearly equal in the backfield. Virginia’s Tech’s offensive line is better than Syracuse’s, which should negate the advantage Syracuse has among pass catchers.
This could be one of those games in which Tech’s opponent nickels and dimes the Hokies to death. However, it is pretty clear that Tech has to be aggressive on defense.
I am actually more concerned about LeQuint Allen breaking a few big runs, since there will be so much focus on defending the pass.
Tech has been much better this year about limiting big plays on the ground. Unfortunately, it feels like the Hokies are due for some slip ups. And that turf, which plays fast, can be unforgiving of missed gap fills.
Defensive position groups
The Orange starting defenders are better individually than they are as a group.
A good example is points per opportunity, where the Hokies are a full point better.
Syracuse’s defensive line does not scare me, but no doubt the Syracuse offensive coaches will look to scheme around Tech’s defensive linemen.
The Orange have a good secondary and the linebacking corps is equally strong, both of which could be an issue if Syracuse is able to grab an early lead.
Final thoughts
The Hokies are favored by four points, and the model expects them to win by six.
The trends and the matchups favor Virginia Tech, even though past trips to the dome have not always gone particularly well, or to plan.
The Chaplin and Tuten injuries could negate Tech’s advantage on offense, and questions at safety could loom large for the defense.
The metric to watch most closely on Saturday will be time of possession. I expect both teams to a play a style of ball aimed at maximizing the time they possess the ball.
If Tech can match or exceed Syracuse’s time of possession in the first half, it will likely portend good things for the Hokies. If not, this one could get dicey.