Complete Breakdown of 2025 Team Talent
247Sports composite metric is a great predictor of win totals
The 247Sports Team Talent Composite metric has finally been updated for 2025.
Although the new numbers do not contain any real surprises for Virginia Tech fans, they do paint a clear picture of where the program is at the beginning of Brent Pry’s pivotal fourth season as head coach.
Virginia Tech ranks 40th nationally and 9th out 17 ACC teams. In the national ranking, the Hokies are one spot below Georgia Tech and four below Cal.
In turn, the Hokies are ranked five spots higher than NC State and six above Stanford.
Conference comparison
Given their point rating of 712.19, the Hokies would rank as follows if they were members of the other power conferences:
Big 12 - 6th place out 17 teams (including VT)
Big Ten - 11th place out of 19 teams
SEC - 16th place out of 17 teams
The Hokies’ talent rating would place them first in every non-power conference.
With all the talk about the Big Ten and SEC breaking off and forming a super league, it’s pretty clear that from a quantifiable talent perspective, the SEC is in a league of its own, while the Big Ten is about on par with the ACC. The Big 12, while still well ahead of the non-power leagues, trails the other power conferences.
The major difference between the ACC and the Big Ten is that the latter is top heavy, with four of its teams in the top 15 (and two in the top five) compared to only two ACC teams in the top 15 (and none in the top five).
That advantage evaporates when we zoom out - both conferences have 12 teams among the top 50 nationally.
The SEC has 8 of the top 15 and 15 of the top 50 schools. Meanwhile, the Big 12 does not have a team in the top 15, but does manage to place 10 schools in the top 50.
Virginia Tech outlook
Talent matters, but when setting win expectations it is equally important to consider the talent of a team’s opponents.
The Hokies will play a challenging schedule in 2025, but there are no matchups against truly elite teams.
The toughest test will come against Miami, #15 nationally in talent, but Tech gets the Hurricanes at home in late November.
The next hardest game, this week against #18 South Carolina, is at a neutral site, albeit one much closer to Columbia than Blacksburg.
The only other game the Hokies will play against a top-35 opponent is on the road at #19 Florida St. The Seminoles are coming off a disastrous 2-10 season in which they were (supposedly) the 13th most talented team in the country. In addition, the Hokies will have an extra week to prepare for that game.
Another major factor working in Tech’s favor is that the Hokies will only play four true road games this year, and none of them is a guaranteed loss, although the Team Talent model I created does not expect a win at Florida St. under any scenario.
Speaking of that model, I kept things really simple. The table includes each opponent’s talent ranking and the delta from Virginia Tech’s. From there, VT Win Chance was calculated by starting at 50% and adding 0.05 for every spot higher in the rankings Tech is compared to its opponent or subtracting by the same amount when the Hokies are the less talented team.
The binary predictor simply considers which team is more talented. The best case column swings all games in which Tech has a 45% chance of winning or greater into the win column, while the worst case column moves all games with a 55% chance of winning or less into the loss column.
Overall, the baseline win expectations, in both the detailed (VT Win Chance) and the more crude (Binary W/L) come out at seven wins.
The best case scenario is nine wins, while the worst case scenario is five. Subjectively, I can see a path to victory in every game, but a realistic path to defeat in only nine games.
If the Hokies lose at home to ODU, Wofford, or Wake Forest, we would likely be looking at changes in the team’s, and the athletic department’s, leadership.
Last season the Hokies lost all the 50/50 games. The floor is lower this season, as doing so would cost the team bowl eligibility. However, the ceiling is higher than most realize and the baseline is one win better than in 2024.
If nothing else, there is reason for (guarded) optimism in Blacksburg as we embark on the start of another college football season.