Chasing a Championship
Virginia Tech prepares for its first game with conference title game implications since 2019
The title of this article is undoubtedly bold, but it is factually correct. The 3-4 Hokies are in the thick of the ACC Championship race.
Virginia Tech (2-1 in the ACC) is tied for third place with Duke, a half game behind Louisville and North Carolina. Barring a total collapse, Florida St. (5-0 in conference) will finish at the top of the standings.
It has been four long years since the Hokies played a late October game with so much on the line. The biggest unknown is how the players will respond to that reality.
Beyond that, a lot is knowable via the reams of data we now have on both teams. And all the data point toward an even matchup.
Mirror images, with differences below the waterline
What should stand out immediately is how alike these two teams are.
Run/pass ratios, success, and explosiveness are nearly identical on both sides of the ball. The key exception: Virginia Tech’s defensive pass success, at 34.3%, is six percentage points better than Syracuse’s.
This is a big deal because while both teams are likely to find some open running lanes, the Hokies are much more likely to be able to move the ball through the air consistently.
If the Hokies’ secondary is able to hold up as well on the outside as the advanced stats suggest, it will allow the front seven to attack the run more aggressively. In that regard, the strategic imperative is similar to the Wake Forest game - make Syracuse throw the ball.
Usage
Usage is the percentage of plays on which a player was involved. Recordable events include passes, incompletions, rushes, receptions, and targets.
The Orange generally prefer to run the ball in order to set up the pass. Lequint Allen (HB) and Garrett Schrader (QB) are used most frequently in the run game.
The #2 and #3 running backs for Syracuse (Juwuan Price and Ike Daniels) see a combined rush usage of around 17%, so the Hokies will not be able to just key on Allen. Shrader, whose build is similar to that of Kyron Drones, is used almost as much in the run game as the Hokies use Drones.
In contrast, Virginia Tech really only uses three players in the run game: Bhayshul Tuten, Drones, and Malachi Thomas.
Both teams depend on the their quarterbacks to gain yards on the ground. And while Drones and Shrader should both be healthy following an off week, this game could change on a dime if either quarterback were to suffer an injury.
In the passing game, the Orange primarily look to their outside receivers, but they also involve Allen a lot.
Donovan Brown, who is second on the usage list, is a formation-dependent starter. Technically, he has started four games this season and graded out at 62.5. However, he has not hit 60 in any of Syracuse’s ACC games.
Meanwhile, the Hokies have been less consistent with their usage in the pass game this year. Every week it seems to be a different guy stepping up. Against Rutgers it was Da’Quan Felton. Against Pitt it was Jaylin Lane. And against Wake Forest it was Stephen Gosnell.
While Tuten’s pass usage is about one percentage point less than Allen’s for Syracuse, Tuten’s 11% pass usage is tops for Tech. That figure confirms the consistency with which the Hokies have involved the running backs in the passing game. Beyond that, tight end and receiver usage have generally been matchup dependent.
Key matchups
Speaking of matchups, there are a couple that will likely determine the outcome of the game.
VT Wide Receivers vs. Syracuse Secondary
The Orange start two very good cornerbacks. They are capable of shutting down Stephen Gosnell and Da’Quan Felton on the outside. Pay particular attention to Isaiah Johnson, who at 6’3”, 205 lbs., with a 79.3 defensive PFF grade, just screams NFL.
Syracuse may elect to have Johnson shadow Felton to negate Felton’s size. However, Felton has been fairly quiet of late, and the Hokies have not thrown many jump balls his way, so the Orange may elect to play Tech straight up. Either way, this will be a clear tip-off toward how the Syracuse coaches feel about their matchups across the board.

Syracuse plays a 3-3-5 defense, and both strong safeties are good players. If the outside receivers fail to gain separation early, expect to see Tyler Bowen attack outside linebacker Derrick McDonald.
As linebackers go, he is solid enough in coverage (60.3 grade for the year), but he has not topped 60 in any ACC game. And that trend reflects his overall grade.
Additionally, McDonald is 6’4”, 224 lbs., and he has been an inconsistent tackler. The Hokies will likely use motion to isolate him on Jaylin Lane, who is quick enough to get a step on McDonald even on short passes.
Bowen may also test McDonald’s tackling ability on boot plays with Dae’quan Wright, who is a solid option in the passing game and has a 30 lb. weight advantage.
Overall, the strength of the Syracuse defense is the secondary, and Tech has been good about targeting weaknesses and generally avoiding disadvantageous matchups in the pass game.
If the Hokies are true to form, look for more passes to the middle of the field and only selective shots toward the outside.
Syracuse O-line vs. VT D-line
It will be a matchup of good-on-good down in the trenches when Syracuse has the ball.
For the Hokies, Cole Nelson got the nod at defensive end opposite Antwaun Powell-Ryland against Wake Forest. Expect that to be the case again this week, as Tech’s top priority will be shutting down the run.
There are two possible strategies the Hokies could employ to counter Syracuse’s strength along the offensive line:
Attack the gaps and try, via penetration, to blow up run plays before they develop
Have defensive linemen occupy blockers, allowing linebackers to flow unimpeded and make tackles for modest gains
Given the Hokies’ personnel and defensive preferences, expect Chris Marve to go with option #1.
The Hokies have been starting their two smaller defensive tackles (Pheldarius Payne and Norell Pollard) in recent games, and while they have had great success, the risk is that, if Syracuse can keep the game close and have at least moderate success running the ball, the Hokies will wear down up front.
Mario Kendricks has been dealing with an injury, so the next men up might be Wilfried Pene and Josh Fuga, both of whom are more adept at executing strategy #2. So, if penetration rates decline when the second team tackles are in, then keep an eye on the linebackers. If linemen are peeling off and getting them blocked with some regularity, Tech will be in trouble.
The chess game
Ultimately, there are not many obvious weaknesses for either team to attack. As a result, this game will be more about which coaching staff can better employ formations and motion to confuse the opponent.
Lately, Tyler Bowen has been on a bit of hot streak when it comes to scheming his players open. That streak will need to continue this week if Tech is to win the game.
Both teams were off last week, so expect a fair number new wrinkles early on. It is almost guaranteed that one or both sides will reference in an interview how the opponent “did some things they hadn’t shown on tape”.
Quick adjustments will be important, but equally so will be executing on those adjustments. Neither offense is particularly explosive, so if one team rips off a few big plays in the first 20 minutes of the game, expect that side to win the game.
Overall, the Hokies are at home, and Kyron Drones has more weapons at his disposal than does Garrett Shrader. Those are both distinct advantages for Virginia Tech.
But if the talk around Blacksburg has been that this is a getable game, well, that same talk has surely been bantered about in Syracuse, NY. The Hokies will get Syracuse’s best shot.
If Tech is truly a contender to make it to the ACC championship game, it will find a way to win what should be a very close game.