Championship Weekend - What to Watch For

An analyst looks at the ACC and beyond

First, on the podcast earlier in the week, I referenced an article from the offseason about the Southern Conference split that resulted in the creation of the SEC. For anyone who missed it, here is a link to that article:

Now then, on to this weekend’s games!

Conference USA Championship

Liberty is playing for a possible New Year’s Six bowl bid. It will likely come down to the Flames and Tulane, although losses by both could open the door for SMU. Style points matter! The Fighting Jerry Kills (New Mexico St.) are a surprisingly close analog to Liberty, from an advanced stats perspective. However, Liberty does everything just a bit better. This game could come down to big plays through the air, where both teams have shined. Liberty’s defense is vulnerable here. This game could be closer than expected.

Pac-12 Championship

The Pac-12 Championship gives me 2011 ACC Championship flashbacks. Tech lost that year by 20 to Clemson in the regular season, but was heavily favored in the rematch. A halftime tie gave way to deluge of second half Clemson points, as the Hokies passed the torch of conference leadership.

In this game, Washington’s pass defense should present challenges for Bo Nix. However, Oregon’s offense has a favorable matchup against the Husky run defense. The game could be decided by the matchup between the Washington passing attack and the Oregon pass defense, which is truly good-on-good. The 10-point line seems a bit much, and clearly it influenced the score prediction model, but Oregon has been on a roll and Washington feels like it is just hanging on.

Mid-American Championship

Toledo does a lot of things well, with perhaps the only weakness being run defense, where it is just so-so. The biggest difference between the two teams is success rate. The defenses are pretty much a wash, but offensively, Toledo is about 7 percentage points better in both running and passing success. As a result, keep an eye on Miami’s ability to sustain drives. Big plays through the air might help the RedHawks hang around, but if they are not able to move the ball consistently, they run the risk of being ground down by Toledo’s strong rushing attack.

Big 12 Championship

Oklahoma St. plays defense, but not as well as Texas. In particular, the Longhorns are excellent against the run, where the Cowboys have been pretty good. The problem for Oklahoma St. is that the Cowboys have not demonstrated an ability to throw on a defense the caliber of Texas’s (in order to open up the run). And again, Texas is very stout up front. On the other side, Oklahoma St. has weaknesses in the backend that Quin Ewers and Co. will surely look to expose. This game is more likely to be a blowout than a close game.

Mountain West Championship

This is a fascinating game on multiple levels. James Shibest and Vance Vice, last seen in Blacksburg in 2021, are on Barry Odom’s staff at UNLV. Boise St. fired its coach mid-season and then won a million tiebreakers to get into the championship game. Finally, the disparity in records belies relative parity according to SP+. Boise St. comes in with a great running game, but the Rebels defend the run well. Look for the opposite - UNLV’s ability to run on Boise St. - to determine the winner of this one.

Sun Belt Championship

Regardless of Appalachian St.’s win in Harrisonburg a few weeks ago, this game feels like a letdown without 11-1 JMU (which is ineligible as it transitions from FCS). Troy is ok on offense and excellent on defense, while App St. is pretty good on offense and bad on defense. That statement alone pretty much explains the spread and the likely outcome. With its current SP+ rank of 29, an 11-2 Troy team could be a really tough bowl matchup.

American Athletic Championship

This is a very tricky game. SMU’s two losses were in September and on the road at Big 12 teams. EPA per play suggests the Mustangs have both the better offense and the better defense. Tulane is playing for a second straight New Year’s Six bowl. It’s only loss this year was to Ole Miss. The Green Wave rely heavily on the run (60/40 split in play calling tilted toward the run), but SMU allows only a 32% success rate on running plays. SMU has a balanced attack, but the matchup advantage comes in the passing game, where the Mustangs appear likely to hit on some big plays.

SEC Championship

Every. Single. Thing. About. This. Game. Points. In. Georgia’s. Direction.

Except Nick Saban.

Alabama’s defensive success has been excellent all season, and will need to be again on Saturday if the Tide are to have any chance of pulling the upset. Kirby Smart has the more talented team, a fact lost on no one. Saban and Co. will do something to try to mitigate the Tide’s deficiencies. Hitting the Bulldog defense over the top via the pass appears the best option. Perhaps even on a trick play. Look for creativity from Alabama, as they are unlikely to win this game if they play it straight up.

Big Ten Championship

Yawn…

Look at Iowa’s overall EPA per play on offense. It’s negative! And not by a little. That is just unbelievable in modern college football.

Throw in success rates in both the run and the pass that hover in the low 30% range, and one wonders if the Hawkeyes could score 30 points against an average high school team.

To make matters worse, as good as Iowa’s defense is, Michigan’s is better.

Simply put, if Iowa wins, it would be an upset of absolutely epic proportions.

ACC Championship

Louisville’s loss in the season finale to Kentucky, combined with the Jordan Travis injury, has resulted in a lot less hype than would otherwise be merited for this game. Louisville absolutely can win - in fact, many of the advanced stats favor the Cardinals. And, if anything, Louisville dealt with more injuries, and for longer, than did Florida St. this year.

Most likely, a win, even by a single point in an ugly fashion, will be enough to get FSU into the playoff. Louisville is playing for a spot in the New Year’s Six.

On a weekend in which there are traditionally a lot of blowouts, and the potential is certainly there for that to be the case this year, the ACC Championship could be a nail-biter.