Championship Saturday Reasons to Believe

2024 was a disappointment in Blacksburg, but other similar teams are thriving

Virginia Tech’s 6-6 regular season aside, it is difficult to see this Championship Saturday as anything but a time to be hopeful.

Last night Boise St. punched its ticket to the playoff with a convincing win over UNLV.

The trajectory of the Boise St. program has mirrored Tech’s since the two teams played on the opening weekend of the 2010 season.

Unlike SMU and TCU, Boise St. did not win the conference realignment lottery.

In all honesty, it looked like the program’s window of opportunity to truly compete for a National Championship had passed.

So much for that!

With the 12-team playoff, they are not only in the field, but the Broncos will likely get a first-round bye.

And, don’t sleep on the season Army has had. The Cadets are 11-1 with a game remaining against Navy.

Yes, Notre Dame dominated Army a few weeks back, but rebounding to win the AAC Championship game over a good Tulane team is something to be noted.

If Army could remain in the playoff conversation this long, how can one not feel hopeful about Virginia Tech’s chances of doing the same in the coming years?

Game 1: ACC Championship

In 2022, SMU finished 7-6 overall, and 5-3 in the American Athletic Conference. It was, seemingly, a program going nowhere fast. That 2022 team was #63 nationally in team talent. Any sort of playoff talk would have been for humorous purposes only. Fast forward two years and the Mustangs are #25 in team talent, and they went through an easy slate of power conference games undefeated. There is no reason why Virginia Tech cannot do in 2025 what SMU is doing this year.

Game 2: Big 12 Championship

According to all the advanced stats displayed above, Iowa St. is basically a carbon copy of Virginia Tech. The main reason the Cyclones are playing for a spot in the playoff (and the Hokies are not) is that they went 4-1 in one-score games. In contrast, Virginia Tech went an agonizing 0-5. The whole thing with Brent Pry and his terrible record in one-score games reminds me of “Clemsoning”. Remember that verb du jour from about 15 years ago? Yeah, it was applicable until it wasn’t. Then Clemson became a juggernaut.

Game 3: Big Ten Championship

James Franklin’s run at Penn St. resembles Frank Beamer’s at Virginia Tech in the 2000s. The Nittany Lions field a great team just about every year, but they are never quite championship-level. Pennsylvania is a good state for talent, and these days it’s probably got more good players than Virginia (along with less in-state Division 1 programs), but the difference isn’t that great. In fact, for a long time Penn St. was poaching the best players out of Virginia. That pipeline appears to have diminished with recent coaching changes, including Brent Pry coming to Virginia Tech. I have always considered Penn St. the Virginia Tech of the north. If the Hokies can win more regional recruiting battles, they too can get back to enjoying a similar level of success.