At What Price?
Whether talking about defensive end play or conference realignment, it's all about tradeoffs
Let’s start today with a single question, multiple choice quiz.
Choose the option that best describes the recent Virginia Tech defensive reality:
A: Virginia Tech sacked opposing quarterbacks less in the 2021 (6 wins) and 2022 (3 wins) seasons combined than they did in 2014 (7 wins).
B: According to PFF, in 2022 the Hokies’ pass rush grade was in the top half of the ACC.
C. Four Hokies earned a pass rush grade above 75 in 2022, but none of them played defensive end.
D. A and B are true
E. A and C are true
F. A, B, and C are true
Alright, time’s up. Pencils down. Let’s review the answer.
QB pressure: Necessary, but not sufficient
There once was a time, way back in the days of yore, when quarterbacks were absolutely terrified to play against Virginia Tech. I remember. I saw it with my own eyes. The Tech defensive line, and especially the ends, made the opposing offensive line look like a wet paper bag.
Ah, those were the days.
It’s been a mixed bag in recent years.
Remember that great Virginia Tech defense in 2014? It shut down the eventual national champion Ohio State Buckeyes in the Horseshoe and led the Fighting Gobblers to a…(checks game results)…7 and 6 record, with a bowl win over the mighty Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.
Ok, so the good ole days weren’t always good. Turns out a break-but-don’t-bend defense, combined with a young and beat up offense, is capable of losing lots of games.
Quarterback pressure does not alone make for a great team, but what about the inverse. Can a Virginia Tech team be great if it does not get after the QB?
In a word, no.
Over the last decade, the better teams tended to generate more pressure (sacks, hits, and hurries) than did the teams that struggled, but it does not take a regression to see that the r-squared on this on this one would be small.
It wasn’t always Corey Moore and Darryl Tapp running laps around offensive tackles. Some defensive ends are ‘twitchier’ than others. Billy Joel remembers the 2003 ends.
Asked to comment on that group, Joel, in his New York accent, responded, “Not that intimidating.”
What about the 2023 Hokie defensive ends?
Well, tomorrow ain’t as bad as it seems.
2022 QB pressure: *Surprisingly decent
*Caveats apply
The 2022 Hokies had a better PFF pass rush grade than did the Florida St. Seminoles. And Wake Forest was better than every other ACC team, Clemson included.
There were three clear tiers of defenses when it came to pressuring quarterbacks in 2022. Virginia Tech was in the second tier, seventh out of 14 teams in the ACC.
That’s the good news.
The better news is that the Hokies return three starters from last year who graded out above 75.
The bad news? That list of three does not include one defensive end, the position that traditionally leads the defense in pressures and sacks.
The three returning pass rushers who graded out the highest in 2022, according to PFF, are:
Keli Lawson (LB, 90.1 pass rush grade)
Mario Kendricks (DT, 81.6)
Norell Pollard (DT, 78.7)
It’s not that the Hokies do not have intriguing options at DE. They do. But none of them are proven, and none of them are the complete package.
Returning to the one-question quiz at the beginning of this article, the correct answer was F. All three of the statements are true.
A question of trade-offs
The gray quadrant in the scatter plot below highlights Virginia Tech defensive ends who are both good pass rushers and a good run stoppers.
That quadrant is empty because the Hokies have no such player currently on the roster, according to their 2022 PFF grades (2021 for Pheldarius Payne, who missed the entire 2022 season due to injury).
The fit on that linear trend line is so good it probably keeps defensive line coach JC Price up at night - it makes crystal clear the tradeoffs evident at this position.
The players are grouped as follows:
Good rushing the passer, struggle against the run (maroon)
Antwaun Powell-Ryland - 6’3”, 242 lbs. (412 snaps in 2022)
CJ McCray - 6’3”, 246 lbs. (340 snaps)
Good against the run, struggle rushing the passer (orange)
Cole Nelson - 6’3”, 247 lbs. (344 snaps)
Keyshawn Burgos - 6’5”, 240 lbs. (7 snaps)
Depth Pieces (grey)
Jorden McDonald - 6’4”, 249 lbs. (22 snaps)
Pheldarius Payne - 6’3”, 275 lbs. (222 snaps in 2021)
Assuming everyone is and remains healthy, my best guess is that the rotation at defensive end will look a lot like that at defensive tackle.
I expect Powell-Ryland to start opposite Nelson, with McCray being the first guy off the bench. These top three, as a group, will likely play the vast majority of meaningful snaps at DE in 2023.
Burgos and Jorden McDonald are battling for the other second team spot. Despite the praise Burgos received from head coach Brent Pry earlier in the week, my hunch is that McDonald will ultimately win that battle. Barring injury, I think Burgos’s body is still a year away from entering the two deep. By choice, that is.
Unfortunately, I do not expect this group to get through the season injury free. By mid-season, don’t be surprised if Burgos is playing 15-20 snaps per game.
As for Payne, he’s likely too big to see major time at DE. He might line up more at DT than he does at DE. However, if anything happens to Cole Nelson, I would expect to see Payne’s snap counts at DE increase quickly.
Outside of Nelson, I don’t trust anyone else against the run. Payne may lack twitch, but at least he’s big enough to hold up at the point of attack. Not sure I can say that about any of the others.
The takeaway
If there has been one theme of the summer in college football, it would be At what price? In conference realignment, if you want a better media rights deal, get ready for cross country trips to play against seemingly random schools that just happen to be located adjacent to major media markets.
Among defensive ends at Virginia Tech, it’s a question of picking one’s poison. Or, at least, that is how it appears. The unknown variable is how much each of these players improved in the offseason, and in what areas.
There is more length and athleticism at DE than there was last year, and more skill, top-to-bottom, as well.
The Powell-Ryland/McCray combination on third-and-long is a good one, and we should definitely see them cause a strip or two on sacks, as well as force a few errant, rushed throws that get intercepted.
The real concern is how well the ends will fare against balanced teams, especially on first and second down.
The Powell-Ryland/Nelson combo best resembles, from a style standpoint, Trevon Hill and Vinny Mihota from the 2017 team. Matching the DE level of play from 2017 might be enough to ensure bowl eligibility in 2023, while exceeding it is likely required in order to secure a winning record.
In practice that would mean the top three (Powell-Ryland, Nelson, and McCray) would combine for something in the neighborhood of 16 sacks: around 7 for Powell-Ryland, 5 for McCray, and 4 for Nelson.
Assume 3 more sacks from the rest of the DEs, 9 more from the DTs, and 10 from blitzers, and that would put the Hokies at 38 sacks for the season, the same amount they registered in 2016, the last time the team won 10 games.
Thirty-eight is probably the ceiling for 2023 and 28 the floor. Something in the middle would put this year’s team at the level of the 2015 team. Largely forgotten these days, that team went 7-6, with two of the losses coming in overtime. Quarterback Michael Brewer and CB Kendall Fuller missed large chunks of that year with injuries.
In hindsight, it is easy to see that the 2015 team set the stage for the 10- and 9-win seasons that followed in 2016 and 2017.
The defensive ends are still a year away, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect improvement. We should. And I think we will see it, starting in just three weeks.