As Hype Begins, Reason for Caution

An examination of recent point odds making data reveals a moderate disconnect between Las Vegas and the state of Hokie football

As we welcome March, with its warmer temperatures, hardwood madness, and spring football practice, we also begin anew the season of hype.

Perhaps you have noticed a recent uptick in preseason lists and prognostications from the usual suspects. Many are a variation on one (or more!) of the following:

“Hokies a Top 25 team”

“Is Virginia Tech a dark horse for the expanded playoff?”

“Hokies to challenge for ACC crown”

Although the regular season will not kick off for another five months, the spring interlude, with its still fluctuating rosters, serves as the beginning of the 2024 punditry cycle.

While it is fun and somewhat entertaining to see what the national press thinks of the boys in orange and maroon, I was curious about their track record when it comes to evaluating Virginia Tech football.

The best evaluations come from those with money on the line - oddsmakers, a group to which the media has dedicated increasing attention in recent years. So, as a proxy for the media’s ability to gauge the relative strength of the Hokies, I ran an analysis of Tech’s performance against Las Vegas.

What I found when I analyzed the data is a surprising disconnect between expectations and results over the last three years.

Hokies against the spread