After One-Year Hiatus, Virginia Tech-Miami Rivalry Returns

Hokies to face a very tough test in prime time showdown in South Florida

They say that although history does not repeat itself, sometimes it rhymes.

Since Virginia Tech lost to Rutgers last week, a lot of the talk in Hokie Nation has turned to the possibility of history repeating itself.

In 2019, a 2-2 Virginia Tech team, fresh off a home beatdown at the hands of Duke, went on the road and shocked the nation, not mention undefeated Miami, by jumping out to a 28-0 lead. The Hokies made their fans sweat through the final plays, but they ultimately emerged victorious, 42-35.

Still, history does not repeat itself, so why bother going there?

Actually, I’ve been thinking a lot about another Virginia Tech team that started 2-2, with wins over two hapless foes and close, somewhat infuriating losses to the “real teams”.

The fourth game that year was particularly galling. Tech allowed 10, count ‘em, 10 sacks. The punter dropped the ball on the Tech one yard-line, which resulted in an easy, and completely unearned, touchdown for the opposition.

And yet, the Hokies still had a chance to win in the closing seconds.

In fact, they should have won. But the ball was erroneously spotted two yards behind the line of scrimmage before the last play, and Tech’s 43-yard field goal to win the game missed by about two inches.

I’m talking, of course, about the 2004 Hokies. After losing that fourth game to NC State, they prepared to host #6 West Virginia the following week.

I was a junior at Tech that year, and I don’t recall many people giving the Hokies a chance to win.

Why would they?

The offense was very limited, the talent was young and the experience lacked talent (sound familiar?). And, quite frankly, Tech was losing a lot.

After beating Miami in the epic November 2, 2003 clash in Lane Stadium, Tech rose to #5 nationally and took its 7-1 record up to Pitt.

The Hokies lost to #25 Pitt by three, then tanked the rest of the season, losing every game the rest of the way (except Temple - Tech beat the Owls in OT, the beneficiaries of a missed extra point).

That means, when WVU rolled in to town, with its two-game winning streak over the Hokies - and having taken #3 Tech out behind the woodshed in Morgantown the year before - and its #6 national ranking, Tech was 3-6 in its last nine games.

Rasheed Marshall and the Mountaineers were going to come into Lane and run all over the Hokies and there was nothing anyone could do about it.

Except the players.

Nothing exceptional happened that week. Campus was full of moping students. Mid-terms approached. The leaves changed colors. Life went on.

Yet something important surely happened inside the Tech locker room, at practice, or in a meeting because a team that had been losing close games suddenly started winning them.

Three-point deficits were no longer something to worry about. Three-point leads started to feel like three touchdown leads.

The leaders took over and the young talent grew up.

The team turned things around.

I’m not saying that will happen this week down in Coral Gables, but I’m not saying it won’t, either.

As Chris Berman so famously says, “That’s why they play the games!”

When Virginia Tech has the ball

The weakest part of the Miami defense is the secondary, particularly the cornerbacks. In theory, that is where Tech should aim its attack.

However, isolating those guys will be difficult.

The Hokies need to control the clock, which means they need to establish the run. They have been good this year running outside the tackles, but Miami’s team speed is likely to complicate those plans.

The Hurricane linebackers are especially good, and their ability to pursue ball carriers is a bad matchup for Tech’s Benji Gosnell, who has struggled this year to seal the edge.

Ali Jennings will be a game-time decision. if he plays, he will be limited.

Stephen Gosnell and Jaylin Lane have been pretty dependable this year, and they can be counted on for at least a few catches each.

The player who really has an opportunity to snap out of his early season funk is Da’Quan Felton.

In the offseason, talk around Blacksburg was that this group of receivers is the best since 2007. Three out of the top four receivers that year got drafted, and David Clowney was drafted the year before.

If the NFL Draft were held next week, maybe Lane would be a late round pick. Maybe.

The rest would probably be undrafted free agents.

If these guys want a legit shot to make it in the NFL, now is the time to step up.

And they should be receiving passes from a very motivated Kyron Drones.

With the national spotlight of playing on Friday night on ESPN and his cousin, who is being mentioned as a Heisman hopeful, starting at QB for Miami, the competitor in Drones will surely be dialed-in even a more than usual.

One note about Bhayshul Tuten. While he’s having a great year and he is certainly deserving of 25 carries against Miami, the reality is that he stands a very good chance of suffering a major injury if the Hokies over-use him.

For those of you who don’t remember how violent Miami-Virginia Tech games have been when both teams are good, here is a reminder:

And yes, that was not a typo, both teams are good. Miami might be a National Championship contender, but Virginia Tech is not chopped liver.

Expect this game to be very, very physical.

When Miami has the ball

Dorian Strong has had a strange season. He has allowed a few catches, but none for many yards.

In general, teams have avoided throwing to his side of the field, electing instead to go after Mansoor Delane.

Miami offers a unique challenge with Xavier Restrapo ready to wreak havoc from the slot.

Keonta Jenkins, the starter at the Star linebacker position, has little hope of sticking with Restrapo.

For that reason, do not be surprised to see Strong slide down to nickel and Dante Lovett come in to replace him at cornerback.

Lovett has played very well this season, and playing three corners is probably the Hokies’ best shot at slowing down Cam Ward and the Miami passing game.

The problem with playing three corners is that it will incentivize the Hurricanes to keep the ball on the ground and run behind their mammoth offensive line.

That would be a tough matchup if Jayden McDonald was healthy. He isn’t though, and neither is Keli Lawson.

Caleb Woodson will probably get the lion’s share of snaps at Will, and Rutgers attacked him mercilessly last week.

Another major concern for Virginia Tech is busted coverages in the secondary. While they have not been an issue yet this season, the Hokies are inexperienced at safety, and the Miami passing game will probably look to exploit the deep middle of the field.

Talent leans heavily in favor of the Hurricanes

On paper, Miami is the much more talented side.

Of course, that has been true every single time these two teams have played one another.

Miami in 14th nationally in team talent, which is well above Virginia Tech, which is 52nd.

Believe it or not, the disparity in on-field performance this year has not been as stark.

In fact, the greatest difference in PFF grades among offensive position groups is found among the receivers and tight ends. Miami’s have been excellent, while Tech’s have underperformed.

Miami’s starting offensive line has not played much better than Virginia Tech’s. In fact, if Brody Meadows were healthy and starting at left guard, the Hokies might have the edge here.

Defensively, linebacker is where Miami has the greatest advantage. Tech’s linebackers are easily the most improved position group on the team in 2024. They are no longer the massive liability they were in 2023.

Still, Miami is most likely to attack the middle of the field. A big concern for Defensive Coordinator Chris Marve has to be how they will handle crossing routes and deep posts.

If ever there were a game in which to dial up some exotic blitz packages, this would seem to be it.

Overcoming the talent disparity

To win the game, the Hokies have to negate Miami’s talent advantage. One way to do that is via special teams.

The streak of games with a special teams blunder needs to end this week. But simply matching Miami will not suffice. Tech has a decisive advantage in the SP+ Special Teams rating (73rd percentile vs. 53nd) and the Hokies need to generate momentum from the punt return/block team.

Another important stat will be penalty yards. It’s Miami - the Hurricanes always commit a bunch of penalties. The Hokies need to keep their focus, avoid retaliation, and overall play a clean game.

Tech’s success rate (40% on the season) is on the low end, but it would suffice if the offense was generating explosive plays. So far, that has not been the case.

Look for Tech to run a lot of misdirection in an effort to entice Miami to over pursue. If the Fuente-era fake QB keep, jump-pass-over-the-line-to-the-running-back is still in the playbook, this week would be a great time to use it.

Miami has been a little better in offensive points per opportunity (4.8 vs. 4.3 for Virginia Tech), but the Hokies have the defensive edge (2.8 vs. 3.2). As a result, the two teams enter tonight’s game nearly even in net points per opportunity (+1.6 for Miami compared to +1.5 for VT). Tech needs a generate a comfortable advantage on this metric in order to have a chance to win the game.

Final thoughts

Twenty years ago, a 2-2 Virginia Tech team, which had won just three of its previous nine games and seemed destined for mediocrity in its first year as a member of the ACC, suddenly righted the ship and upset #6 West Virginia 19-13.

This year’s Hokies have an opportunity to make history rhyme. Hardly anyone is predicting Tech will even keep tonight’s game close, much less win at #7 Miami.

With all the off-season hype and expectations now fully in the rearview mirror, the pressure on this team to perform is gone. Everyone expects them to get blasted by Miami.

But this Tech team is not as bad as everyone is saying it is. The two losses have been close, coming down to the final possession. And no one believes Tech has performed anywhere near its potential yet in 2024.

So, what happens if the Hokies do play like everyone thought they would? That team would be pretty good. Certainly competitive with Miami.

There is every reason to expect Virginia Tech will play its best game of the season on Friday night. (There is no way Kyron Drones wants to get owned on national television by his cousin.)

Whether or not that will be enough to win is anyone’s guess. The numbers suggest it will not. But hey, that’s why they play the games.