A Little Bit of History Repeating
Once again, Virginia Tech travels to Chapel Hill as underdogs to play the Tar Heels in a Hurricane
Playing football in a hurricane has been known to render most analytics moot. Most but not all. In this article, I will elaborate on the metrics likely to presage the outcome of Saturday’s game.
Ian’s Impact
There is not one single metric on the above preview viz that tells you Virginia Tech is a better football team than North Carolina. However, there are a few, either alone or in tandem, that tell you North Carolina gets very little out of its talent and on the whole is a consistent under-performer.
If the weather magically clears up, North Carolina will win the game and easily cover the spread. I’m talking two or three touchdown margin of victory. But it does not look like the weather will clear up, and murky weather begets murky results. As I watch from the comfort of my living room, here is what I will be focusing on:
QB Arm Strength - in strong winds and wet conditions, QB arm strength will dictate to what degree the passing game is even an option (advantage Hokies)
Pass Catcher Strength - hauling in passes in these conditions requires strength of mind and body; two of UNC’s three starting receivers are on the small side (advantage Hokies)
Ball Carrier Footing - you can only run the ball successfully if your ball carriers can stay upright (it’s UNC’s stadium, so the Tar Heels might have an advantage due to familiarity with the turf)
Special Teams - VT long snaps have been an adventure and UNC’s Special Teams will be the best unit for either team on the field Saturday (advantage Tar Heels)
Other Items of Which to Take Note
The two teams are much more closely matched in advanced stats than I expected. That leads me to conclude that UNC finishes better than VT - their good plays mean more. For example, an explosive UNC play might go 70 yards for a TD, while an explosive VT play might go for 30 yards, and then the drive stalls on the next set of downs. In this regard, the weather could either play the role of equalizer or maximizer. Either way, finishing drives with touchdowns will be critical because kicking field goals in a hurricane will be challenging, and risky.
Virginia Tech’s starters grade out higher than North Carolina’s at four out of seven position groups, including all three on defense. Both defensive lines grade higher than the opposing offensive line. While the disparity is more in favor of UNC, I would not expect either team to get much push up front.
Drake Maye is have a much better year at QB than Grant Wells, and both run well. Maye, however, is only a freshman. Virginia Tech will present defensive looks that he has never seen before. Can he overcome the Tech defense working in tandem with the weather to move the ball enough against the Hokies?
Will the lightbulb turn on for the Virginia Tech offense, especially along the offensive line? The 2016 hurricane game was an unexpected turning point for VT. Could we see a reprise in 2022?
Gut Feelings
North Carolina should win this game comfortably. And they might. But that was supposed to be the case in 2016 as well, and here is what happened in that game:
I’ll be honest - I have absolutely no feel for how this game will go. Not one ounce of available data was collected in conditions like this game will be played in. In the last 20 years, VT is 2-0 in hurricane games. The other game was a 2003 win in Lane Stadium over Texas A&M. Those games featured different players and coaches, so I take nothing from them.
Really, I think this game all comes down to coaching. Hydration and nutritional prep are important, as is mental prep by the coaching staffs, but I think the better in-game coaching performance will likely determine the outcome. On the whole, I think Virginia Tech has a better coaching staff. However, four games into his head coaching career, I think Brent Pry has been pretty average during the actual games. Say what you want about Justin Fuente, and I am more a fan then most, but the guy was an excellent big game coach. Tech didn’t always win those games, but I can’t remember a big game in which I didn’t think - wow, Fuente and Co. really put together a good game plan this week.
Another example that I think is relevant is the interplay between Scot Loeffler’s offensive calls and Bud Foster’s defensive calls in the win at Ohio St. in 2014. The staff had predetermined situations in which they would be aggressive vs. conservative. It was a thing of beauty. If the Hokies are going to win the game, they will need to have a coaching edge noticeable to average fan by the third quarter. Absent that, the Tar Heels are the better team, and they will probably win*.
*Caveat time. If either team commits 12 or more penalties, that team will lose. One crazy, weather-induced turnover is probably survivable (by UNC), but two will cost either team. A weather delay favors the Hokies - Pry went through a long one while coaching at Penn St. and he mentioned on Tech Talk Live that the staff has prepped for such a possibility in this game.
Ultimately, the Hokies have proven that they can play ugly-mistake filled football and still be competitive in 15 out of 16 quarters played this season. North Carolina’s defense gave up 40 points in one quarter to Appalachian St., and that same unit made Notre Dame’s Hokie-esque offense look good last week. I know the Tar Heels can win pretty, but they don’t have much of a track record in recent years of winning ugly. This game is going to be ugly. For that reason, and the edge in coaching, I enter this game expecting something in the neighborhood of a 24-21 Virginia Tech win. In good weather, I would have picked this one to go Carolina’s way, big. Like 38-17 big. Could still happen, but at this point, I doubt it.
Record outright: 2-2
Record against the spread: 1-3
Record over/under: 1-3