• Part 1 - Kyron Drones

• Part 2 - Bhayshul Tuten

Following the bowl win over Tulane, much was made of the four senior receivers who elected to return to Blacksburg for their Covid year. Three of the four - Da’Quan Felton, Stephen Gosnell, and Jaylin Lane - are known quantities.

Then there is Ali Jennings.

One of last year’s major portal signings, Jennings made a statement in week 1 with two TD receptions against Old Dominion, his former team.

Then he suffered a freak injury against Purdue the following week that ended his season.

Jennings has a lot on the line in 2024 as a fringe NFL talent coming off two straight season-ending injuries. A strong (and healthy) year could propel him into a Day 3 NFL Draft selection. Conversely, another injury might lead him to “go pro in something other than sports.”

I broke down Jennings’s high level stats in an article last summer. Here, I will build on that introduction with a more detailed look at snap counts and tendencies, two metrics that could provide clues as to how the Hokies will feature Jennings in 2024.

Usage

Jennings was on the field for 768 offensive snaps in 2021 and 507 in 2022. On a per game basis, there was not much difference - he averaged nearly 51 snaps per game in 2022, down from 55 the previous year.

Of note, over the last three years, there is a clear trend toward lining Jennings up in the slot more often. In 2021, he lined up out wide on 97% of his snaps. That figure declined to 87% in 2022 and further still, to 83%, in 2023.

Virginia Tech is much deeper out wide than it is in the slot. Additionally, among the four returning senior receivers, only Da’Quan Felton made it through last season unscathed.

As a result, I expect the more injury-prone players will platoon to some degree.

For example, it is unlikely that there will be many plays in which the trio of Stephen Gosnell, Lane, and Jennings are all on the field at the same time. More likely is that one or two out of the three will be on the field for most plays.

When Lane is on the sideline, Jennings will be a leading candidate to slide down into the slot. Or, he might play some opposite Lane with Felton and Ayden Greene lined up wide in a four-receiver set.

The combination of Jennings’s experience and the plethora of wideout options means we could see Jennings in the slot on up to 25% of his snaps.

Run blocking

Jennings showed himself to be a good blocker at both West Virginia and Old Dominion. Although his run blocking grade dipped a bit in last year’s small sample, his grade was consistently above average in the prior years:

That said, his average run blocking grade has declined in each of the last three years. That, along with his injury history, suggests he is more likely to get a breather on running plays.

His pass to run play ratio has ranged from 1:1 last year at Virginia Tech to 2:1 at ODU in 2022. For his career, Jennings gets 3 pass play snaps for every 2 run plays. That sounds about right for 2024.

The astute reader is probably thinking, “Yeah, but Tech is a run heavy team now. What will that mean for his playing time?”

Glad you asked! Let’s run a hypothetical. Suppose…

• Tech averages 67 offensive snaps per game and, technically, runs the ball on 63% of snaps, but only 57% were designed runs (the rest were scrambles or sacks)

• That translates into 42 rushes and 25 passes per game, with Bowen calling, on average, 38 runs and 29 passes

• Tech can’t have Jennings on the field for every passing play - that would be a dead giveaway as to the play call - so let’s suppose he’s on the field for 90% of designed throws

• That would put Jennings on the field for 26 called passes, and we’ll assume that 3 of the 4 uncalled runs occur with Jennings on the field

• The final result is that Jennings will get 23 snaps on passing plays and 15 on rushing plays for a total of 38 snaps per game

Thirty-eight does not seem like a whole lot of snaps for the guy who is supposed to be the team’s WR1, but if Tech were to play in the ACC Championship Game, that would mean Jennings would log 532 snaps for the year, something he has only done once in his career (2021).

Realistic expectations

Ali Jennings has posted at least an 80 offensive grade and an 80 receiving grade in each of the past two seasons. He will probably do so again this season.

But his overall numbers will depend on his effectiveness in more limited role. He might squeak over 700 yards receiving if Tech plays at least 14 games, but a more likely total is around 600.

That is no knock on Jennings. Rather, it is a nod to the reality of Jennings’s injury history, the deep pool of talent at wide receiver, and the team’s run first philosophy.

If he notches double digits in TD receptions, and Tech wins 10 games, that may still be enough to secure placement on an All-ACC team and a late round NFL Draft position.

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However, compared to other teams, Virginia Tech hardly ever throws the football.

And if that does not have you scratching your head, consider this - only 63% of VT targets last year were directed toward wide receivers. Twenty percent went to the tight ends and 17% to the running backs.

Compare that to the ACC teams at or below Tech in terms of targets:

• Duke - 81% to wide receivers

• Syracuse - 70%

• Wake Forest - 88%

In fact, out of the 17 teams that will play football in the ACC in 2024, Virginia Tech was dead last in 2023 in wide receiver targets, with 203. The conference leader, Miami, targeted its wideouts 347 times.

And yet, no Hokie wideouts left via the portal, all the draft eligible players elected to come back, and Tech signed another group of highly touted high school receivers.

Clearly Fontel Mines is deserving of all those raises he has been racking up.

That said, will we see a similar spread in 2024? Probably not.

Redirecting targets

Despite having so many players returning from last year’s squad, the passing distribution could change significantly in 2024.

Tight end Dae’Quan Wright was a major portal departure, and his targets are unlikely to be replaced by Nick Gallo or even a committee of players at that position. Rather, those targets will probably go to a healthy Ali Jennings.

All else held constant, hat would still leave Jennings in a distant third place in targets on the team. But Jennings is also likely to take some targets that would have otherwise gone to his fellow receivers.

Compare his percent caught last year in the small sample size to the top three returning receivers. Jennings caught 71% of balls that targeted him.

Da’Quan Felton, Jaylin Lane, and Stephen Gosnell were between 52% and 64%. I would expect a lot of the low percentage, early season throws to Felton (e.g., deep balls) to be replaced by higher percentage throws to Jennings (10-15 yards downfield).

Jennings will get his opportunities, but given his and Stephen Gosnell’s injury histories, it makes sense to split snaps between those two more evenly than what will likely be the case at other receiver positions.

That said, Ayden Greene is in line for more targets than he got last year. Whether that happens organically or as a result of an injury to another player, the likelihood is that he will get more than 20 targets this year. Simply absorbing the targets that went to Da’Wain Lofton last year (11) would nearly get him there.

Finally, Tech fans should expect a decline in RB targets, most of which were check downs when no one was open down the field. That will mean more opportunities for the receivers.

Slices aside, will the actual pie increase in size?

Among all 2024 ACC teams, only Syracuse and Wake Forest threw the ball less than Virginia Tech in 2023.

Duke, which played most of the season with an inexperienced backup quarterback, matched Virginia Tech in targets.

Given the hit or miss nature of last year’s offense, and the run-first mentality, it is not hard to imagine Tech moving up to the middle of the conference in targets.

How would the Hokies do that?

1. Better offense leads to more plays

2. Healthy receivers + more experienced Kyron Drones = more passes and less designed QB runs

3. Teams load the box in an attempt to stop the run and force the Hokies to throw the ball more

All three possibilities are reasonable, if not entirely likely. Option #1 is the most likely, as it merely requires a more consistent offense than last year, and it is difficult to imagine that not being the case.

Options #2 and #3 are dependent on the offensive line. If those guys consistently open up big holes for the running backs, the thinking goes, Drones will carry the ball less and teams will stack the box, leading to more throws.

The offensive line will probably be better this year, but perhaps not enough to cause a material change in the run/pass ratio. And it is also possible that if the Hokies are running the ball well, Tyler Bowen will dial up even more running plays.

What should we expect?

All of this is to say that Tech will have increased flexibility this year. Depth is better at every pass catching position, the offensive line appears to have taken a step forward, and Kyron Drones might be an All-ACC quarterback.

While there is no guarantee that Drones will throw the ball more in 2024, Tech will be able to win games in different ways.

If an opponent takes away the run, Tech will have the players to shift into a pass-heavy offense. If the run is there, Bowen will surely be content to feed the running backs.

In the end, Tech is unlikely to rise above eighth in the conference in targets. Given the makeup of the roster, the culture within the program, and the offense’s propensity for big plays, that should still be sufficient to keep everyone happy.

To the fan’s eye, Bhayshul Tuten had a great first year in Blacksburg in 2023. He ran hard, broke a million(ish) tackles, and even returned a couple kickoffs for touchdowns.

There is no question about it, Tuten is a great runner.

However, there is also no doubt that when Coach Brooks reviewed film, he found plenty still wanting in Tuten’s game.

Strengths:

• Low center of gravity and welcomes contact

• Above average quickness and speed

• Elite kick returner

Areas to improve:

• Pass blocking was horrendous in 2023

• Has more natural receiving talent than he showed last year

• Physicality results high in wear and tear

Tuten had the 14th highest PFF grade among ACC halfbacks in 2023. If that seems low to you, it’s probably because so much of the focus on running backs is on their ball carrying abilities.

However, even if we focus solely on running, Tuten’s numbers seem low. He was 11th among ACC halfbacks in PFF run grade.

While it is possible that some of Virginia Tech’s struggles along the offensive line impacted Tuten’s grades, any bias there would likely be at the margins.

Overall, the story the numbers tell is of a running back with solid potential who needs to round out his game if he hopes to be an NFL draft pick a year from now.

Rushing

Last year, Tuten ran for 863 yards on 175 carries. His 4.9 yards per carry (ypc) was heavily dependent on his ability to break tackles.

Tuten gained 654 yards after contact, which is 3.7 ypc. Seventy-six percent of his rushing yards came after contact. That is not only ridiculous, but completely unsustainable.

In 13 games, he forced 69 missed tackles, reaching double digits three times:

• Old Dominion (10)

• Pittsburgh (10)

• Syracuse (11)

In six true home games, Tuten forced 37 missed tackles vs. only 24 in true road games (add in 8 during the bowl game to get the season total of 69).

While it is true that Tech faced its two toughest opponents, Florida St. and Louisville, on the road, two of Tuten’s worst games for forcing missed tackles came at home, against Purdue and NC State.

If we discard the two lowest missed tackle totals for both home and away, we come out with a discrepancy of 36 missed tackles forced at home to 21 on the road.

So, the point stands. Whether it’s the water in Blacksburg or the fans in Lane Stadium, Tuten breaks a lot more tackles at home than he does on the road.

As far as scheme goes, 62% of Tuten’s runs were behind zone blocking, while 38% were behind gap blocking.

After not gaining at least 15 yards on a single carry in the first three games, Tuten finished with 11 such runs, for 305 yards, on the season.

Rush Direction

Tuten had the most success in 2023 running off left end (outside the tight end). He ran in this direction 40 times, gaining 271 yards, good for 6.8 ypc. He ran off the right end 28 times, but only averaged 4.1 yards on each of those carries.

Right guard was, by the numbers, the weakest position on the offensive line last year. However, Tuten enjoyed great success when running between the C-RG gap (6.6 ypc) and the RG-RT gap (6.8 ypc).

The toughest sledding came off tackle. Tuten averaged 3.9 ypc off left tackle and just 2.7 ypc off right tackle.

Receiving

Tuten caught 25 passes on 39 targets for 227 yards in 2023. He averaged one yard per route run, meaning that his role in the passing game was almost exclusively in the screen and swing games. In fact, 19 of his 25 catches came behind the line of scrimmage.

Although the vast majority of Tuten’s targets were in between the hashmarks, 12 were outside to the right, compared to just 5 outside to the left.

Anticipate Tyler Bowen isolating Tuten on linebackers more in the passing game in 2024. Although Tuten’s 2023 receiving grade was low at 51.3, he has the quickness and hands to run outs, slants, and wheel routes. Utilizing Tuten solely as a check down option in 2024 would be, given his skill set, a mistake that would lower the ceiling of the offense.

Blocking

In 2022, at North Carolina A&T, Tuten had a 50.3 pass blocking grade on 41 pass blocking snaps. In 2023, at Virginia Tech, he had a 10.5 grade on 43 pass blocking snaps.

Clearly there is work to be done to make Tuten a true every down back.

From the chart above, you can see that there does not appear to be much rhyme or reason as to why he sometimes blocks well, but usually does not.

Overall

Bhayshul Tuten was a good running back for Virginia Tech in 2023, but he struggled when the ball was not in his hands. That is an issue, considering he was on the field for 549 offensive snaps last year and only touched the ball on 200 of those snaps (175 rushes + 25 receptions).

Tuten subjected his body to significant punishment in 2023, and he only averaged 13.4 carries per game. Tech will need him to carry the ball more in 2024, but also absorb less punishment. Part of that is on the offensive line to open up more and bigger holes. The rest is on Tuten to know when to go down and move on to the next snap.

While he has remained remarkably injury free as a collegiate player. it is unlikely that trend continues if Tuten takes a pounding in 2024 similar to that from 2023.

Over the course of about one month, Kyron Drones went from an unproven, run-first, backup quarterback to an emerging star and the unquestioned leader of the Virginia Tech offense.

As well as Drones played in 2023, he was really just scratching the surface of his true potential.

Strengths:

• More accurate than completion percentage suggests

• Willing to throw the ball away rather than try to “force it”

• Seeks contact on designed runs and is difficult to tackle

Areas to improve:

• Dependent on play action

• Throws right nearly twice as often as left

• At times fails to identify the deep safety

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While Drones proved a better passer at this stage in his career than many anticipated, too often his success depended on good play around him. The reverse will have to be true in 2024 if the Hokies are to take the next step and contend for an ACC Championship.

Passing Concepts

Drones completed just 57.7% of his passes last season, but his adjusted completion percentage (ADJ%) of 72.7% is much more indicative of his accuracy.

Adjusted Completion Percentage = the % of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed)

In fact, Drones had a higher ADJ% than First Team All-ACC quarterback Jordan Travis (72.2%).

Travis, however, had a six-point advantage in completion percentage. That’s because the difference between Drones’s adjusted and non-adjusted completion rates was nearly twice that of Travis’s (15 points vs. 8.5)

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Reporting by Andy Bitter at TechSideline, which I missed at the time, has cornerback Derrick Canteen, who is definitely not being shown the door, slated to play in the Military Bowl.

So, I will revise my observation to say that there is a strong association between being “cut” and being allowed to play in the bowl game, but it is not an absolute thing.

Alright, with that out of the way, let’s get on with the show.

One last announcement

With Bhayshul Tuten’s announcement that he will return next season, the Hokies will have all their major pieces back in 2024. However, there is one important piece who has been very quiet: backup quarterback Grant Wells.

What, you say, that guy? Who cares, we’ve got Kyron!

Oh, I care, and here’s why.

Since 2018, Virginia Tech’s opening game starting quarterback has averaged 368 snaps per season compared to 411 for his primary backup.

The saving grace has been that the backups have played just as well as the starters, with only 0.2 points separating the two in overall PFF offensive grade (69.3 for the starters and 69.1 for the backups).

Drones, at 6’2” and 237 lbs. is a big, strong guy, but he has carried the ball 146 times for 642 yards this season. He will likely have a similar workload on the ground next season, which increases his injury risk.

The Hokies have the potential to be a very good team in 2024, and if there were such a thing as wins above replacement in football, the #2 player on the roster, behind Drones, is likely Wells.

How much is Grant Wells worth?

First, in terms of on-field play, Wells is clearly way ahead of Pop Watson, the #3 QB. Watson is an exciting player, but he still needs to add mass and develop in the system.

If needed, Watson is unlikely to be ready to perform at a level comparable to Drones in 2024. The drop-off from Drones to Wells is much less steep than it is from Wells to Watson.

Indeed, Grant Wells would probably start at half the schools in the new, expanded ACC. So, getting him to return for another year, as the backup, would be a major coup for Brent Pry & Co.

On3 has a great NIL Valuation tool. Is it accurate? Probably not. Is it useful? Most definitely.

The list of players on whom On3 has data is not comprehensive. Indeed, neither Drones nor Wells is included, so in the case of the latter, we have to look to other quarterbacks on his level.

Think of this list like the “comps” that a home appraiser would consider to help determine your home’s market value. These quarterbacks, either through experience, reputation, or status, are in the same neighborhood as Grant Wells.

Wells was voted a captain by his teammates in 2023 and has thrown for more than 8,000 yards in his college career.

Given that he would return as QB2 (not in an open competition), his role would be most similar to Garrett Nussmeier’s and Tate Rodemaker’s in 2023. On the open market, he would probably generate interest similar to JT Daniels.

In short, Wells is a known and proven commodity; a surefire G5 starter and possibly a lower tier P5 starter.

That would put his value somewhere around $130k. In return, the Hokies would secure one of the best backup quarterbacks in college football.

Next year would be the third year in Tyler Bowen’s system for Wells. Keeping in mind that in four of the last six seasons, the QB that entered the season as the backup ended up playing more snaps than the starter, that would be a heck of an insurance policy for a team whose 2024 ceiling might brush up against playoff contention.

Likely outcome

Wells is married and will turn 24 next year. He has been in college since 2019. He might be ready to just get on with his life after football. (Given that he has not entered the portal, at this point, transferring appears to be off the table.)

If that were the case, he would likely take a significant pay cut. Five years of on-field experience does, and always will, correlate with zero years of off-field experience.

For argument’s sake, let’s say he would make 50% less, and that’s probably on the conservative end. It could be a lot more.

If he came back, there is a 33% chance he would just carry a clipboard and cash checks. But recent history has not been kind to starting quarterbacks at Virginia Tech, something Wells knows all too…well.

There is a good chance he would be called on to play significant snaps for a team loaded with skill position talent that has high expectations.

Certainly there are worse situations in life that one can find oneself in.

And what of Pop Watson, the current QB3? Drones has two more years of eligibility, so if Watson covets QB1 status in Blacksburg (as he should), the most likely timeline is 2026, when he would be a redshirt junior.

By that time, he should be ready to step in and put on a show. But he is going to need the intervening years to get stronger, develop as a passer, and master the system.

Without Grant Wells, the Hokies could easily get FSU’d next season. With him, that would be much less likely.

On the outside looking in are Da’quan Felton, Jaylin Lane, and Mansoor Delane. All three would likely need to log big games against both NC State and UVA in order to merit real consideration.

Quarterback - Kyron Drones

Ceiling: Honorable Mention All-ACC

Case for: Turned around the Hokies’ season, great runner, does not throw interceptions

Case Against: Didn’t become the starter until week 3, does not throw a lot of passes, lower completion percentage than the main competitors

The Competition: After Jordan Travis and Drake Maye, there are a lot of mediocre quarterbacks competing to secure the honorable mention spot at QB.

Drones is an exciting player, and while his efficiency numbers are not great, he is yet to have a terrible outing.

All the other candidates have at least one obvious flaw:

• Haynes King - too many interceptions

• Cade Klubnik - low YPA and PFF grades, underachieved for an underachieving team

• Jack Plummer - no rushing component, more of a game manager

The competition here is stiff, and it will likely go down to the wire. Drones has as good a chance as the others,

Defensive Line - Antwaun Powell-Ryland

Ceiling: First Team All-ACC

Case for: Currently leads the conference in sacks

Case Against: Average against the run, sacks have come in bunches against bad teams

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• Field goal or punt block

• Field foal or punt over 60 yards

• Fake field goal or punt

• Kickoff or punt return for a big gain and/or touchdown

• Onside kick recovery by the offense

Otherwise, special teams tend to get short-changed, despite their outsized impact field position, point totals, and the willingness of the offensive and defensive coordinators to be aggressive in their play calling.

At 40,000 feet, there does not appear to be much of a difference in Virginia Tech’s special teams play in 2023 compared to last year.

Through nine games, the Hokies have graded out at 76.4 in overall special teams, an increase of 1.9 from last year’s 74.5 grade.

However, as one digs into the numbers, the improvements become clearer.

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Things on offense were fairly clean cut. The data on the defense, however, is all over the place.

Injuries have played a part, and a look at just the leaders at each position in terms of snaps does not tell the entire story. However, the starters’ numbers are indicative of the broader successes and struggles of the team, as these are the players out on the field for the vast majority of snaps.

Better overall, but not across the board

The defense has slightly improved in SP+ (72nd percentile in 2023, 70th in 2022), but the overall PFF defensive grade is 11 points lower in 2023.

In other words, the defense is playing worse and getting better results.

(I’ll pause here while you examine the graph below, mouth the word “How?”, then proceed to pick your jaw up off the floor.)

The run defense grade has fallen off a cliff, and the tackling decline has been almost as severe. The nearly six point improvement in the pass rush grade is notable, even if the eye test would suggest that the difference is even greater.

The declines at individual positions are striking.

Keyshawn Burgos has played at a below baseline level as DE2, about six points lower than Jaylen Griffin in 2022. Granted, Griffin was a very experienced senior and Burgos is in just his second year.

Mario Kendricks, DT2 in the chart, has struggled to match his form from last year, partially due to injury.

I covered the two inside linebackers in last week’s podcast, and looking at this chart, you can see why those positions merited unique attention.

Keonta Jenkins, STAR, is another player whose grade has declined partially due to injury.

Mansoor Delane has not played poorly (he is still one of the high graders on defense), but he hasn’t excelled in the way that he did last year. Still, there is

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Most of the players who transferred into the program have played very well, and they have all at least met expectations.

Often unacknowledged, though, is the fact that the Hokies did lose some important pieces from the 2022 team.

If we grant that the talent level is higher in 2023, the question remains, did the talent infusion lead to better individual on-field performances, or is the sum of the parts simply better in 2023 than it was in 2022?

Better in most areas in 2023

The 2023 has thus far graded out about two points higher then the 2022 team, including a six-point improvement on offense.

Three out of the five offensive sub-categories (receiving, rushing, and run blocking) have received higher grades in 2023.

Those trends hold true at the individual position level.

By position, PFF positive deltas (representing improvement) from 2022-23 are as follows:

• Offensive Line - 3/5

• Wide Receivers - 2/3

• Running Backs - 1/2

• Tight Ends - 2/2

• Quarterback - 1/1

Out of the 13 positions that contribute most to the offense, nine have a higher grade in 2023.

The biggest gains have been at left guard and right tackle, while the greatest declines have come at right guard and starting running back.

Yes, you read that right, from a PFF grades perspective, Bhayshul Tuten has been a notable step down from Keshawn King. Of course, that’s a bit deceptive.

In fact, all the high level numbers can be misleading, so let’s get a little more granular.

Quarterback

In the modern game, the quarterback’s primary value add is throwing the football. In that area, the Hokies have seen their quarterbacks grade out lower in 2023 than they did in 2022.

And no, that is not just because Grant Wells is supposedly the better passer of the two.

In fact, Wells has the lower passing grade (58.5), which is artificially low due to the struggles he experienced while playing injured in the second half of the Purdue game.

In Kyron Drones, the Hokies have gotten above baseline level passing (62.3) and a major boost in the run game (75.6).

What is holding back Drones is his proclivity to fumble the football. He has put the ball on the ground in every game he has started.

Back to the passing game, though, as there are further insights to be gleaned there.

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Before 2023, he had never coached quarterbacks.

Needless to say, coming off an initial season in which the offense appeared stuck in quicksand, Tyler Bowen was a controversial selection as Virginia Tech’s next quarterbacks coach.

The varying ups and downs of the offense as a whole has captured a lot of attention. Flying under the radar is the job Bowen has done coaching Grant Wells, Kyron Drones, and the other quarterbacks.

Recent Virginia Tech history

First things first, there has been no drop off in the passing department in 2023. In fact, things have gotten a bit better.

The pattern of improvement from 2021-23 is eerily similar to that from 2017-19.

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There is no way the team would have played in the 2000 Sugar Bowl (see exhibit 1: Miracle in Morgantown).

In fact, I doubt the Hokies would have ever won 10 games without featuring top 1% special teams units year after year.

After more than a decade at the top, sometime around 2005 things began to slip. It was gradual and inconsistent. There were still moments of excellence, but they mostly came in the return game.

No one is afraid of Beamer’s beloved pride and joy unit anymore. I would guess that Tech blocked a punt at some point in the last three years, but I can’t remember it off the top of my head.

Lately, even the punt return team has been pedestrian, at best.

Twenty years ago, the Hokies could hardly go three games without blocking a punt. It used to be so much fun to watch opposing punters squirm around before the snap, try to hurry their motion, and end up doing something stupid like dropping the ball or failing to even get the punt off.

Clearly, it is a multi-faceted issue, but football is a Jimmies and Joes sport, so this analysis will focus solely on the players - namely, which ones are getting significant snaps on the punt return team and how are those choices impacting the unit’s performance as a whole.

Setting the table

There are two main arguments one can make about the punt return unit. The first is that its struggles have been a driver of the team’s poor play of late. The second is that the team’s struggles have been a driver of the punt return unit’s poor play.

One thing is for certain - special teams are not what they once were in Blacksburg.

PFF data go back to 2016, which was Justin Fuente’s first year as head coach. The eye test at the time told me that in the late Beamer period, the various special teams units were still well coached, but they no longer featured elite playmakers, with the exception of punt returner.

In 2016, though, excellent, if not outright elite, play returned.

According to PFF, James Shibest’s 2016 special teams unit was 10th nationally. They were not blocking punts left and right, but they did have a major impact on games.

No one knew it at the time, but there was a future first round draft pick on the receiving end of that Mitchell Ludwig jump shot in the 2016 ACC Championship Game.

Fast forward to 2022 and the talent difference is stark. While some of that is due to an overall decline in talent within the program, much of it comes down to who actually played on the punt return unit.

In 2016, one reserve player saw major snaps on the field goal block unit - Anthony Shegog, who was only a reserve because of his tweener body type. Too big to be an every down safety and too small to be an every down linebacker, he shined as a linebacker in the nickel and dime packages.

In 2022, the top 11 players on the punt return unit, by number of snaps, were all starting caliber players.

(Note: starting caliber player is the unit of measure because the official starting lineup often fluctuates based on offensive or defensive package, injuries, and because some players may not start in a given year, but may go on to be stars later, something the coaches can surely see years in advance)

The big difference lies on the punt return unit. PFF does not separate punt block from punt return, but rather groups them together. So, in layman’s terms, these are the guys on the field when the other team is lining up to punt the ball back to the Hokies.

This unit featured eight starting caliber players in 2016, but only four in 2022. And if those figures are not stark enough, consider the following:

• Bryce Duke and Jaden Keller are two of the four players grouped in the starting caliber bucket, a projection in both cases

• One of the non-starting caliber players on the 2016 team was Johnathan Galante, a walk-on who is currently the Special Teams Coordinator at Marshall and was previously a Special Teams Analyst at Alabama

• Five players from the 2016 unit were drafted or played in the NFL and a sixth, Cam Phillips, was a record setting receiver at Virginia Tech who has gone on to success in the XFL and CF

• The only player on the 2022 unit who might have an NFL future is Keli Lawson

Chicken or egg

Ultimately, this is a chicken or egg situation when it comes to disentangling what caused what. There is also another factor - the change in coaching staffs.

One could posit that under Pry the strategy is to play less starters on the punt return unit, but that would be a fallacy. At this point, all that is known is that under the conditions Pry inherited in 2022, the staff decided it was best to feature mostly reservists.

This entire analysis may, in fact, be biased by heretofore unseen confounders, such as body type. Remember, both 2016 and 2022 were coaching transition years. The two staffs were, often times, putting players recruited for a certain role in an entirely different role because the first disappeared with the change in schemes.

In 2016, the players who got the most snaps on the punt return unit tended to be long and lean, like Brandon Facyson, Adonis Alexander, Divine Deablo, and Bucky Hodges.

The 2022 unit featured a mix of lean and tall types (like Connor Blumrick and Keli Lawson), shorter stocky guys (like Dax Hollifield and Keshon Artis) and smaller DB types (most of the rest).

Another possible confounder is the roster makeup. In 2016, the talent was predominantly concentrated among the juniors and seniors.

The reverse was true in 2022. Outside of a few experienced older players, most of the talent, such that it existed, was to be found among the first and second year players. The advantage of experience that the older players had was negated by a new coaching staff that employed a new system.

The takeaway

The cupboard is no longer empty. There are more long, lean, and athletic linebacker types in the program than I can count on one hand. In fact, one could argue, convincingly, that there are more such players of starting caliber than there are spots available in the starting lineup.

There are also known quantities, namely Tucker Holloway and Jaylin Lane, ready to step in and excel at return duties.

Finally, assuming some measure of improvement from both the offense and defense, there should be more snaps played by all members of the punt return team in 2023.

Consider this: Elijah Howard, who finished second on the team in snaps in 2022, played the same number of snaps as Greg Stroman (53), who finished tenth on the the 2016 team.

My expectation is that we will see 7 to 8 starting caliber players among the top 11 in punt return snaps in 2023, and that the unit will manage a pair of blocks and maybe one return for a touchdown. That should be enough, assuming otherwise decent play, to improve the unit grade from 72nd in the country in 2022 to somewhere in the mid-40s.

It may also be worth an extra win, or two.

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Choose the option that best describes the recent Virginia Tech defensive reality:

A: Virginia Tech sacked opposing quarterbacks less in the 2021 (6 wins) and 2022 (3 wins) seasons combined than they did in 2014 (7 wins).

B: According to PFF, in 2022 the Hokies’ pass rush grade was in the top half of the ACC.

C. Four Hokies earned a pass rush grade above 75 in 2022, but none of them played defensive end.

D. A and B are true

E. A and C are true

F. A, B, and C are true

Alright, time’s up. Pencils down. Let’s review the answer.

QB pressure: Necessary, but not sufficient

There once was a time, way back in the days of yore, when quarterbacks were absolutely terrified to play against Virginia Tech. I remember. I saw it with my own eyes. The Tech defensive line, and especially the ends, made the opposing offensive line look like a wet paper bag.

Ah, those were the days.

It’s been a mixed bag in recent years.

Remember that great Virginia Tech defense in 2014? It shut down the eventual national champion Ohio State Buckeyes in the Horseshoe and led the Fighting Gobblers to a…(checks game results)…7 and 6 record, with a bowl win over the mighty Scarlet Knights of Rutgers.

Ok, so the good ole days weren’t always good. Turns out a break-but-don’t-bend defense, combined with a young and beat up offense, is capable of losing lots of games.

Quarterback pressure does not alone make for a great team, but what about the inverse. Can a Virginia Tech team be great if it does not get after the QB?

In a word, no.

Over the last decade, the better teams tended to generate more pressure (sacks, hits, and hurries) than did the teams that struggled, but it does not take a regression to see that the r-squared on this on this one would be small.

It wasn’t always Corey Moore and Darryl Tapp running laps around offensive tackles. Some defensive ends are ‘twitchier’ than others. Billy Joel remembers the 2003 ends.

Asked to comment on that group, Joel, in his New York accent, responded, “Not that intimidating.”

What about the 2023 Hokie defensive ends?

Well, tomorrow ain’t as bad as it seems.

2022 QB pressure: *Surprisingly decent

*Caveats apply

The 2022 Hokies had a better PFF pass rush grade than did the Florida St. Seminoles. And Wake Forest was better than every other ACC team, Clemson included.

There were three clear tiers of defenses when it came to pressuring quarterbacks in 2022. Virginia Tech was in the second tier, seventh out of 14 teams in the ACC.

That’s the good news.

The better news is that the Hokies return three starters from last year who graded out above 75.

The bad news? That list of three does not include one defensive end, the position that traditionally leads the defense in pressures and sacks.

The three returning pass rushers who graded out the highest in 2022, according to PFF, are:

• Keli Lawson (LB, 90.1 pass rush grade)

• Mario Kendricks (DT, 81.6)

• Norell Pollard (DT, 78.7)

It’s not that the Hokies do not have intriguing options at DE. They do. But none of them are proven, and none of them are the complete package.

Returning to the one-question quiz at the beginning of this article, the correct answer was F. All three of the statements are true.

A question of trade-offs

The gray quadrant in the scatter plot below highlights Virginia Tech defensive ends who are both good pass rushers and a good run stoppers.

That quadrant is empty because the Hokies have no such player currently on the roster, according to their 2022 PFF grades (2021 for Pheldarius Payne, who missed the entire 2022 season due to injury).

The fit on that linear trend line is so good it probably keeps defensive line coach JC Price up at night - it makes crystal clear the tradeoffs evident at this position.

The players are grouped as follows:

Good rushing the passer, struggle against the run (maroon)

• Antwaun Powell-Ryland - 6’3”, 242 lbs. (412 snaps in 2022)

• CJ McCray - 6’3”, 246 lbs. (340 snaps)

Good against the run, struggle rushing the passer (orange)

• Cole Nelson - 6’3”, 247 lbs. (344 snaps)

• Keyshawn Burgos - 6’5”, 240 lbs. (7 snaps)

Depth Pieces (grey)

• Jorden McDonald - 6’4”, 249 lbs. (22 snaps)

• Pheldarius Payne - 6’3”, 275 lbs. (222 snaps in 2021)

Assuming everyone is and remains healthy, my best guess is that the rotation at defensive end will look a lot like that at defensive tackle.

I expect Powell-Ryland to start opposite Nelson, with McCray being the first guy off the bench. These top three, as a group, will likely play the vast majority of meaningful snaps at DE in 2023.

Burgos and Jorden McDonald are battling for the other second team spot. Despite the praise Burgos received from head coach Brent Pry earlier in the week, my hunch is that McDonald will ultimately win that battle. Barring injury, I think Burgos’s body is still a year away from entering the two deep. By choice, that is.

Unfortunately, I do not expect this group to get through the season injury free. By mid-season, don’t be surprised if Burgos is playing 15-20 snaps per game.

As for Payne, he’s likely too big to see major time at DE. He might line up more at DT than he does at DE. However, if anything happens to Cole Nelson, I would expect to see Payne’s snap counts at DE increase quickly.

Outside of Nelson, I don’t trust anyone else against the run. Payne may lack twitch, but at least he’s big enough to hold up at the point of attack. Not sure I can say that about any of the others.

The takeaway

If there has been one theme of the summer in college football, it would be At what price? In conference realignment, if you want a better media rights deal, get ready for cross country trips to play against seemingly random schools that just happen to be located adjacent to major media markets.

Among defensive ends at Virginia Tech, it’s a question of picking one’s poison. Or, at least, that is how it appears. The unknown variable is how much each of these players improved in the offseason, and in what areas.

There is more length and athleticism at DE than there was last year, and more skill, top-to-bottom, as well.

The Powell-Ryland/McCray combination on third-and-long is a good one, and we should definitely see them cause a strip or two on sacks, as well as force a few errant, rushed throws that get intercepted.

The real concern is how well the ends will fare against balanced teams, especially on first and second down.

The Powell-Ryland/Nelson combo best resembles, from a style standpoint, Trevon Hill and Vinny Mihota from the 2017 team. Matching the DE level of play from 2017 might be enough to ensure bowl eligibility in 2023, while exceeding it is likely required in order to secure a winning record.

In practice that would mean the top three (Powell-Ryland, Nelson, and McCray) would combine for something in the neighborhood of 16 sacks: around 7 for Powell-Ryland, 5 for McCray, and 4 for Nelson.

Assume 3 more sacks from the rest of the DEs, 9 more from the DTs, and 10 from blitzers, and that would put the Hokies at 38 sacks for the season, the same amount they registered in 2016, the last time the team won 10 games.

Thirty-eight is probably the ceiling for 2023 and 28 the floor. Something in the middle would put this year’s team at the level of the 2015 team. Largely forgotten these days, that team went 7-6, with two of the losses coming in overtime. Quarterback Michael Brewer and CB Kendall Fuller missed large chunks of that year with injuries.

In hindsight, it is easy to see that the 2015 team set the stage for the 10- and 9-win seasons that followed in 2016 and 2017.

The defensive ends are still a year away, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect improvement. We should. And I think we will see it, starting in just three weeks.

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Saturday’s Spring Game offers Hokie Nation its first look at a trio of transfer wide receivers as well as a highly touted transfer quarterback. However, it is the holdover at QB, Grant Wells, who I am most excited to watch. Odds are, assuming good health, he will again be the starter in 2023. How well he plays will depend in large part on the new wide receivers. The Spring Game might give us a preview of coming attractions, but mostly I will be looking for hints of past as prologue.

Grant Wells

Maybe it’s just me, but I expected Grant Wells’s 2022 passing depth chart to look at lot worse than it actually does.

Either way, the narrative leaps off the page, or in this case screen:

• Kaleb Smith was often bracketed on the left side

  • CBs attacked short routes

  • Safeties often got over late on intermediate and deep throws

  • Wells to Smith down the left sideline was money in the bank

• Nothing good happened in the middle of the field more than 9 yards from the line of scrimmage

• Wells was more successful on sideline intermediate throws than short sideline throws, but pressure limited his opportunities

At Marshall, Wells was most comfortable throwing screens and bombs, which he attempted 37.0% of the time. He struggled somewhat with short and intermediate throws (a combined 58.8% of his attempts):

The trend continued in 2022 at Virginia Tech, but with a twist. While the passing grades are almost exactly the same for screens and deep passes, Wells’s grades declined on short passes (-6.9) and intermediate passes (-10.8).

Worse still, Wells attempted a higher percentage of passes in this combined range (62.7%) and a much lower percentage of passes in his strong zones (27.9%). Simply put, the offense did not play to Wells’s strengths.

2022 Wide Receivers

The blame for 2022’s passing game struggles does not lie entirely, or even mostly, on Grant Wells. Kaleb Smith had a breakout year, but every other receiver struggled, and the (lack of a consistent) running game certainly did not help. Let’s consider, as a group, three names we heard called a lot last year: Kaleb Smith, Da’Wain Lofton, and Stephen Gosnell:

The numbers are a little better than I expected, but that’s mostly Kaleb Smith’s success on intermediate and long passes skewing things. The WR screen game was non-existent, and the short passing game was, at best, inconsistent. When your quarterback and wide receivers struggle with the passes that comprise 63.3% of attempts, the offense is going to struggle.

2023 Wide Receivers

Gosnell and Lofton are slated to return (I have to say it like that given the upcoming spring portal season), but likely in secondary roles. The three incoming transfers offer a decided upgrade as a group:

Perhaps most importantly, they are just as good in the short game as they are on deeper throws. Screen passes is where this group scores the lowest, but that’s a relative thing. The 2023 transfers had an average grade 18.5 points higher than the 2022 group. For a team that wants to run a lot of RPO, that’s huge. Overall, the averages between these three players hides the fact that each has his own unique strengths.

Ali Jennings III

Like Smith, Jennings does most of his damage on the left side, and much of it deep down the field.

From a depth perspective, Jennings is unique in that he grades higher the farther he is away from the line of scrimmage. In short, he’s the guy who will take the top off the defense. No doubt he took one look at how Grant Wells throws a deep ball and saw a match made in heaven.

Jennings is no slouch underneath, though. In fact, as a tendency breaker, I would expect him to get more openings underneath than he did last year.

Da’Quan Felton

Virginia Tech struggled in third and long situations in 2022 because the team lacked a possession receiver who could take some pressure off Smith. Felton appears set to fill that role for Jennings in 2023.

Felton played solely on the left side of the formation in 2022, so I would expect to see him lined up in the slot next to Jennings on that side of the field when the Hokies go to a three or four WR look with both on the field. Felton is primarily an outside receiver, though, so I would expect the majority of his snaps to involve him out wide to the left with Gallo as the TE on that side and Jennings or Lane out wide to the right with Lane, Lofton, or Wright in the slot on that side.

One thing that stands out with Felton is the very high completion percentage on balls thrown to him within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. He appears to be the kind of guy who gets open and makes the catch, and that is reflected in his grades.

Quarterbacks completed 19 of 24 passes to Felton between 0-9 yards downfield, and 10 of 14 in the medium range. Those are drive-extending-win-you-the-ballgame types of catches. Of the three transfer receivers, he may be the most important pickup.

Jaylin Lane

Just as Felton plays solely on the left side of the field, Lane is a right side only receiver. He is also the only underneath target of the three, and the biggest threat with regard to yards after the catch.

In 2022, quarterbacks completed 25 out of 28 passes thrown to Lane behind the line of scrimmage and 29 out of 36 between 0 and 9 yards down the field. Drops can be critical when working in such tight spaces, but Lane only had one within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage in 2022.

If Jennings is ideally suited to maximize Wells’s main strength (the deep ball), Felton and Lane will help compensate for his main weaknesses (short and intermediate throws). Felton will be looked to as a drive extender, while Lane will be the top target in the RPO packages. The better he plays, the more dynamic the run game should be.

Putting the Pieces Together

I like each of the three transfer receivers as individual pieces, but together, they make an outstanding whole. Pry and his staff clearly did their homework on these guys, as they complement each other very well. Barring injury, each should have the opportunity to maximize his strengths in an offense that relieves pressure on his weaknesses. How does that look in practice?

To go against trends, I would expect Felton and Lane to catch more deep passes than they did last year, and Jennings will have the opportunity to be more efficient underneath with Felton and Lane commanding more focus on short and intermediate routes. It’s not that the offense will play to their weaknesses, but rather that I would expect them to be more effective in those areas because defenses will be focused on other, bigger threats.

The nature of the Spring Game is such that we will most likely not see all three of these guys line up together on one team, but I will be most focused on their roles in the offense as well as how the complementary pieces fit in around them.

Finally, do all these new outside receivers free up Da’Wain Lofton to finally hit his stride in the slot? He’s my X-factor for the year. After all the hype the last two years, precisely no one is paying attention to him now., As he enters his third year in the program, things might just be lining up for him to finally break out.

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