But on gameday morning, have I indeed lived to see that day?

It’s debatable.

Virginia is a good team with no obvious holes on the roster. Virginia Tech is a misaligned, broken team with a few very good pieces, but also some glaring holes.

Still, the question remains, are the Wahoos really that much better than the Hokies?

In the age of mega-conferences and unbalanced schedules, it’s not such an easy question to answer.

In an attempt to bring some quantitative rigor to bear, I modified the college basketball quadrant system, adapting it for college football.

In basketball, there is no FCS. All 350+ teams in Division 1 are grouped together.

Since there are less than 140 FBS teams, the ranking windows for the quadrants had to be compressed.

And speaking of rankings, there is no NET for college football, so I used SP+, which is the closest advanced metric.

Here is where I drew the lines for the quadrants:

The Hokies did not play the world’s toughest schedule in 2025, but their opponents ended up having much better seasons than many would have guessed back in August.

UVA will be Tech’s ninth bowl bound opponent. If Florida St. beats Florida, the Seminoles will become the tenth bowl eligible opponent.

Only South Carolina and FCS Wofford will join the Hokies in staying home for the holidays.

Tech’s average opponent this year has a 7-4 record and is ranked #43 in SP+.

Overall, the Hokies have played a lot of good to very good teams. Outside of Wofford, there were no games that any team, much less this Virginia Tech team, could just sleepwalk through and expect to win.

Virginia’s schedule is another story altogether.

The Cavaliers have played six bowl eligible teams, four of which are 6-5. Two other teams, Florida St. and Washington St., are 5-6 and could punch their ticket to a minor bowl with a win on Saturday.

The average UVA opponent is 6-5 and ranked 71st in SP+.

Here is a comparison of the two teams’ resumes:

If the Hokies had played the Cavaliers’ schedule - replace Virginia Tech’s Quad 1 game and two Quad 2 games with Quad 4 games - it is very likely that they would be at least 6-5. Brent Pry would likely still be Hokies’ coach.

Don’t believe me? Let’s review the first four games on UVA’s schedule

1. vs. Coastal Caroline (6-5, #112 in SP+)

2. at NC State (6-5, #66)

3. vs. William & Mary (FCS)

4. vs. Stanford (4-7, #107)

Against that schedule, the Hokies would have likely entered the week 5 matchup against Florida St. with a 4-0 record. And the Wahoos got the Seminoles at home.

Brent Pry would not have been fired, so opt outs wouldn’t have hurt the team’s depth.

Under that hypothetical, there is little chance the Hokies would have been forced to start two true freshmen against UVA.

But the schedule is what it is, and it has played out very well for UVA. The Hoos even had an extra week to prepare for the Hokies.

And that could be decisive, because in ELO terms, the Hokies (1409 ELO) look more like a marginal 5-7 team than one about to finish 3-9, while UVA (1604 ELO) is closer to 7-5 than 10-2.

When Virginia Tech is on offense

The Hokies need to finish promising drives with touchdowns, period.

Since Tech has gone all in on the run game, the offense has moved the ball alright between the twenties, but everything bogs down in the redzone.

Kyron Drones can give the Hokies a man advantage in the run game, but the wide receivers, three of whom are on the field for almost every play, are practically invisible.

And has anyone else noticed Benji Gosnell’s disappearing act this year? After catching 32 passes for 341 yards last year, Gosnell has just 12 receptions for 86 yards this year.

At 6’5”. 254 lbs., he would seem as good a target as the Hokies have in the redzone. With Ayden Greene questionable due to injury, perhaps Gosnell gets a few more targets today than has been the norm of late.

Those targets might come by default. The Hokies are so thin at receiver that Greene’s health might force Philip Montgomery to run more plays out of two-tight end formations.

UVA’s rush defense is ok, but the team really excels against the pass. As teams have done of late, it seems likely the Cavaliers will aim to shut down the pass, get a lead, then force the Hokies to try to throw the ball in order to come back.

Statistically speaking, the two biggest concerns are field position (UVA’s opponents start each drive, on average, at the 26-yard line) and staying ahead of the sticks (the Hoos allow a success rate under 38%).

Overall, there is no reason to think the Hokies will score more than 20 points at Scott Stadium.

When Virginia Tech is on defense

Virginia is pretty pedestrian on offense. Their EPA numbers are indicative of a team with higher explosiveness and success numbers than the Cavaliers have achieved on the field, so there is a bit of a disconnect, perhaps due to biased sampling (see: schedule = easy).

Virginia Tech’s opponents have been able to nickel-and-dime the defense, methodically driving the length of the field without the aid of a big play. In theory, Virginia could do this too, but that success rate, which at 42.5% unadjusted is actually lower than Virginia Tech’s, suggests that consistency could be an issue.

Translation: bend-but-don’t-break might be a more successful defensive philosophy this week for the Hokies than it was against FSU and Miami.

Winning the game will require a Herculean effort by the defensive line and no stupid late hit penalties (I’m looking at you, Ben Bell).

Tech’s back-seven is at a moderate disadvantage in terms of skill, track record, and experience. The scheme will be vanilla because that is all the freshmen can handle. Tackles will be missed, gap fills will be late, and receivers will get lost in zone coverage.

If the big boys can win in the trenches, it will largely negate all these disadvantages. However, if PFF is any indication, the Wahoo’s have as strong an offensive line as Tech does a defensive line.

Final thoughts

Speaking of PFF and holes in the line-up, consider the number of players on each side of the ball who have played more than 150 snaps and graded out lower than 60 (the PFF baseline):

• Offense

  • Virginia Tech - 8 (5 of who are linemen)

  • Virginia - 3

• Defense

  • Virginia Tech 3 (Jojo Crim just misses the cut at 149 snaps)

  • Virginia - 0

If ever there was a telling stat, it’s that count above: 11 total players for Virginia Tech have played 150+ snaps and graded out below 60. Virginia only has three such players.

Philip Montgomery will have the Hokies ready to play, and they will indeed play very hard.

However, Virginia is a better team with better players, playing at home at night, and with an extra week to prepare.

The deck is rather stacked against the Hokies, even if the Wahoos aren’t really as good as their record suggests.

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Kyron Drones did not come to Virginia Tech to go 3-9 and cash checks. If that were the case, he would not play half as hard as he does.

No, the guys getting set to run out of the tunnel one last time to “Enter Sandman” came to Blacksburg for the right reasons and have made this Virginia Tech alum proud.

Has it always been pretty on the field? No, obviously not. But the problems in the football program are so much bigger than any of these individuals, or their coaches for that matter.

The misaligned Hokies have two games remaining, each against much more aligned opponents.

The Hokies-in-waiting have a lot to be excited about as the James Franklin era begins, but the question for today and the coming week centers on how smooth the overlap is in regimes, and can one play off the other.

Miami should steamroll Tech

There is no point in beating around the bush. Miami is an elite team that has posted very good results. The Hurricanes, currently sporting an ELO rating of 1914, are by far the best team Virginia Tech will play this year.

The disparity - more than 500 ELO points separate the two teams - is shocking.

Based on ELO alone, there is no reason to think the Hokies can even make this a game.

Advanced statistics tell the same story.

Miami is better at every position and in every facet of the game, save for placekicker.

So, why bother watching the game. If you have tickets, why attend?

For one, if you can go to the game, go. And be really loud for four quarters. I don’t care if Tech is trailing 55-3 midway through the third quarter. Stay, be loud, and be engaged.

Send a message to the players, recruits, and the incoming staff that the fanbase is as committed as the Board of Visitors now appears.

If you can’t go to the game, watch it on ESPN. Every set of eyeballs helps, financially speaking.

The real reason to watch, though, is to understand the why behind the coming player personnel moves. Players will cycle out, and new guys - many with different skill sets - will fill the vacant roster spots.

There will probably be some surprises, both coming and going. As a fanbase, it’s easier to get behind new players and coaches if you have already critically noted how individuals who arrived in Blacksburg pre-Franklin perform on the field and are likely to adapt to the new leadership and on-field systems.

Thoughts on the Franklin hire

For all the handwringing about his in-game coaching issues, Brent Pry failed as head coach because he couldn’t recruit good enough players.

The root cause of the recruiting challenges were deeper issues within the football program, driven by forces within the university and beyond, up to and including state government and demographic changes.

When prompted earlier in the week, Franklin said one thing that really set Virginia Tech apart from the other schools contacting him was that Tech’s search committee had a plan for the program. It did not just come to him and ask what he needed.

The fact that such a plan exists is good. The negotiation with Franklin has no doubt made it better.

The reality, though, is that the plan was unlikely to come to fruition without a Hall of Fame caliber coach who could hold everyone accountable.

James Franklin and Philip Montgomery could appeal to the school for the same capital expenditure - say, for a new football building with increased office space - but only Franklin has the cache to actually drive the project to completion.

Montgomery has shown himself to be an excellent football coach, guiding the Hokies to some unexpected wins and carrying himself with class.

Somehow, he has motivated the players to give outstanding effort, and when there have been issues behind the scenes, he has quietly dealt with them.

There has been no public drama.

That said, Monty, like Franklin, needs the right situation in order to be successful.

Franklin is a builder. Monty is an optimizer.

The school that lands Montgomery this offseason should consider itself extremely fortunate. I’m sure Whit Babcock will provide a glowing reference.

In the meantime, if Montgomery somehow leads the Hokies to an improbable victory over Miami, and in the process infuses even more excitement into Franklin’s visiting recruits, then he should be carried off the field.

Even keeping the final score within two touchdowns should merit a pat on the back and (quiet) congratulations in post-game interviews.

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To reach 7-5, however, FSU will need to win its final three games, two of which are on the road.

The Seminoles will probably be favored in all three games, but is it really likely that they win all three?

Breaking down their record, the 'Noles are an all-or-nothing sort of team:

• One-score games: 0-4

• Two touchdown games: 1-1

• Three or more touchdown game: 3-0

The line on Saturday night’s game is an even 14.0 points, so that means the Hokies have a 50% chance of winning the game, right?

Actually, yeah, they kinda do.

Framing this matchup in terms of offensive and defensive matchups is a fool’s game.

I promise you, on paper Florida St. entered its games with Stanford and UVA looking stronger in almost every statistical category.

FSU lost both games.

Likewise, did anyone really see Mike Norvell’s team not only upsetting, but dominating Alabama back in week 1?

In order to present as rich a picture as possible, first I’ll tackle the advanced stats, then I’ll break down the two versions of Florida St. that could face Virginia Tech.

The sum of Florida State’s parts

If we throw the 2025 Seminoles in a blender, what comes out, in smoothie form, is a team that should beat Virginia Tech by around 10 points.

In ELO terms, a 1500 rating roughly corresponds to a 6-6 power conference team. Every additional 100 rating points add a win and subtract a loss. So, just looking at ELO, Florida St. is roughly a 7-5 level team, while the Hokies are a 5-7 level team.

Team-level advanced stats tell a similar story - the Seminoles are better in almost every category.

The only advanced stat in the above chart that tilts in the Hokies’ direction is EPA on rushing plays when Virginia Tech has the ball.

Otherwise, the chart screams, “'Noles, comfortably.”

But none of the above numbers represent who the Seminoles are as a football team midway through November.

A host of transfers and a new offense took the first few opponents by surprise (mainly Alabama - the other two were patsies). However, once tape got out showing what this team does and does not do well, the results flip-flopped.

Normalizing results

The out of conference games seem like eons ago for both teams. Florida St. (3-0) was unstoppable, and Virginia Tech was unmovable (0-3).

In conference play, it has been a different story:

• Virginia Tech: 2-3, 24.8 ppg scored, 29.6 ppg allowed

• Florida State: 1-5, 26.0 ppg scored, 26.5 ppg allowed

Those results are much more even, but Florida State’s scoring is skewed by its win over Wake Forest (42-7). In fact, many of FSU’s one score losses were not as close as the final score made them appear.

With that in mind, here is a break down of the score through three quarters in conference games for each team:

• Virginia Tech

  • at NC State: winning 20-14 (won 23-21)

  • vs Wake Forest: losing 23-27 (lost 23-30)

  • at Georgia Tech: losing 14-28 (lost 20-35)

  • vs California: tied 20-20 (won 42-34 in OT)

  • vs Louisville: losing 16-21 (lost 16-28)

On average, the Hokies have scored 18.6 ppg in the first three quarters of their ACC games while allowing 22.0 ppg during those same three quarters.

Virginia Tech, -3.4 points through three quarters, tends to fade in the fourth quarter.

It has been a different story with the Seminoles:

• Florida State

  • at Virginia: tied 28-28 (lost 38-46 in OT)

  • vs Miami: losing 3-28 (lost 22-28)

  • vs Pittsburgh: winning 24-21 (lost 31-34)

  • at Stanford: losing 10-20 (lost 13-20)

  • vs Wake Forest: winning 28-0 (won 42-7)

  • at Clemson: losing 7-21 (lost 10-24)

In conference play, FSU is scoring 16.7 ppg through the first three quarters and allowing 19.7 ppg.

Like Virginia Tech, Florida St. has, on average, entered the fourth quarter of conference games trailing by a field goal. Unlike the Hokies, the Seminoles have rallied in the fourth quarter of their games.

If we throw out each team’s best result after three quarters, NC State for the Hokies and Wake Forest for the Seminoles, then we find the Hokies trailing on average by 5.8 points entering the fourth quarter and FSU losing by 9.2 points.

All of this is to say that in conference games, both teams’ stats are skewed by the fourth quarter. This period has hurt Tech’s numbers and helped FSU’s.

Virginia Tech was off last week, whereas Florida St. lost a tough game at Clemson.

Unless FSU breaks open the game early, there is a good chance the Hokies will begin the fourth quarter with a lead. At that point, the question will be, can the Hokies hold off a Seminole comeback bid?

Thoughts on the James Franklin situation

Numerous outlets this week have reported that Virginia Tech has met every demand James Franklin has made regarding the possibility of him becoming the next head coach in Blacksburg.

While that appears to be a good thing, it has me rather concerned. The search committee appears content to let the next coach determine the front office structure within the football program, which I think would be a massive mistake.

Franklin knows what has worked for him at Vanderbilt and Penn St. Virginia Tech in 2025 is rather different from both of Franklin’s previous stops.

That the Virginia Tech brass would let Franklin essentially draw the org chart within the program suggests to me that the committee knows neither what is wrong with Tech’s current setup, nor what should be done to fix it.

The savior model of coach appears to be on its way out. Virginia Tech could position itself for lasting success if it structured the front office, scouting, and development parts of the program - the permanent roles - independent of the next coach. The coach really should only be in charge of on-field decision making and its antecedents (i.e., hiring the coaching staff).

Once again, the Hokies appear to be one era behind college football’s leaders.

Will it cost them?

I’m afraid it might.

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This week James Franklin was the name du jour.

Perhaps next week the Louisiana governor will take a break from micromanaging the LSU athletic department in order to advise Virginia Tech’s search committee on who should wear the big whistle next year in Blacksburg.

Brian Kelly, anyone?

At this point, all the noise is pure comedy.

Let’s focus on the here and now.

After the Hokies beat Wofford, I wrote the following:

No one has more on the line than Philip Montgomery. A 6-2 conference record (obviously very unlikely) would make him Virginia Tech’s coach in 2026. Even five wins might be good enough to get that interim tag removed.

Four wins would get him a P4 coordinator job or a shot at a G5 head coaching opportunity.

Two to three wins would give him a shot at a G5 coordinator gig.

Anything less, and he’s probably done coaching college football.

The Hokies are 2-2 in the ACC, and 3-2 overall under Montgomery. He will be coaching college football next year if that is what he wants to do.

However, with dominoes not following (Matt Rhule, Curt Cignetti, and Rhett Lashlee have all recently signed contract extensions at their current schools), the list of coaches under consideration for open head coaching positions has shrunken.

Depending on who you ask, the Virginia Tech job is somewhere between #4 and #6 in terms of desirability among programs with openings, with the potential to fall further if the Florida St. and/or Auburn jobs come open.

All of this begs the question - is the sixth best available coach an upgrade over the current (interim) coach?

In his six weeks at the helm, Montgomery has:

• deftly and discreetly separated the players who did not belong in Blacksburg from those that do

• won two one-score games, twice as many as Brent Pry managed in three-plus years

• earned the appreciation of a fan base that was staring down a 1-11 season after Pry’s dismissal

And let us not forget that Monty won ten games in 2016 at Tulsa, and he took the Golden Hurricane to four bowl games during his eight-year tenure as head coach.

That experience should be good preparation for the slate of games Tech will play in November. The most favorable matchup, on paper anyway, is at Florida St., so if Montgomery wants to be the full-time head coach in Blacksburg, he’s going to have to earn it.

A win over a top-20 Louisville team in Lane Stadium would definitely help the cause, but it will not be easy.

In terms of both ELO (-308 points) and the spread (+11.5), Tech is a major home underdog.

While last week’s win over Cal was fun, it was not unexpected (Tech was favored according to ELO and the spread). Beating Louisville would be an attention getter.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Louisville (6-1, 3-1) features an elite defense that nonetheless allows opposing teams to score a surprising number of points.

The players in Louisville’s regular defensive rotation who have the lowest PFF grades on the season are on par with Kemari Copeland and Cody Huisman, Virginia Tech’s two highest graded defenders.

The Cardinals are especially stacked at Edge. If allowed to pin their ears back, those guys will embarrass Tech’s tackles.

Expect Montgomery to frequently leave them unblocked and attempt to option them into oblivion. If Monty and Drones can keep those Edges guessing, it will give Johnny Garrett and Aidan Lynch a fighting chance.

Louisville is very stingy against the run. However, one could credibly argue that the Hokies feature the best rushing attack that Louisville will face all season.

If Louisville commits an extra hat to the box, Tech will need its receivers to make plays on the outside.

Donovan Greene has been very quiet in recent weeks. He is due to break out of this recent funk and play a good game.

Benji Gosnell is another guy who has been rather quiet. Keeping a defense off balance requires the offense to break tendencies. For that reason, Gosnell is another player worth keeping an eye on.

Louisville knows the Hokies want to run the ball. The extent to which Tech will be successful in that endeavor depends on how far variety, misdirection, and play action will go toward equaling the talent/experience disparities that, in terms of 1-on-1 matchups, favor Louisville.

When Virginia Tech is on defense

The good news is that Louisville’s offense is not particularly dynamic. In fact, Virginia Tech’s offense has a higher EPA/play in both rushing and passing.

One stat that really stands out is stuff rate allowed, which is an astonishingly high 25.5% for Louisville.

Three of Louisville’s starting offensive linemen grade out below the baseline of 60, according to PFF. Whichever Virginia Tech tackle lines up opposite Louisville Guard Jordan Church is likely to have a big day. Church struggles mightily in pass blocking (41.7) and is below average in run blocking (57.8).

In fact, Louisville’s offense reminds me of South Carolina’s, except quarterback Miller Moss is not mobile and the Cardinal running backs are better.

Tech’s defensive line alone should keep the Hokies in this game.

The Hokies are likely to blitz a fair amount on passing downs, as the Louisville running backs, Isaac Brown (21.8) and Keyjuan Brown (18.1), are absolutely atrocious in pass blocking. The path of least resistance is running right through these backs.

Chris Bell, Louisville’s highest graded player on offense, is an excellent wide receiver. He is also a willing and able run blocker. However, none of the other pass catchers really jump off the page. That opens the possibility of the Hokies employing bracket coverage on Bell.

Overall, the Louisville offense is a pretty good matchup for Tech’s defense.

One key stat that could decide the game is average starting field position. Here, the Cardinals have a 5.4 yard advantage over the Hokies.

Final thoughts

Louisville’s ELO aligns with a 9-3 regular season, which suggests the Cardinals will go 3-2 in November.

That would mean Louisville is fixing to get upset because they should be favored in every game left on their schedule. The team’s toughest tests in its last four games are at home against Clemson and on the road at SMU.

In that context, a loss in Blacksburg looks as likely as anywhere else.

Virginia Tech is rightly the underdog, but this matchup is much closer than it has been portrayed all week.

Louisville’s gaudy rushing numbers do not align with their mediocre-at-best offensive line and average quarterback play.

Likewise, the defense’s impressive PFF numbers mask a surprising number of points allowed.

In four ACC games, Virginia Tech has allowed an average 30 points per game. Louisville has allowed an average of 26.

In regulation Louisville has allowed between 21 and 27 points to every ACC opponent.

Louisville’s 3-1 conference record is entirely driven by turnovers. In the three wins, the Cardinals forced a combined 12 turnovers, or 4 per game.

In the lone defeat, in overtime to UVA, they generated zero turnovers.

For Virginia Tech, there is no need to force anything on offense. Three runs and a punt is fine.

Louisville is squeaking out wins on the basis of their attacking defense forcing opposing offenses to make grievous mistakes.

The Hokies can score 24 points and win this game if they stay patient and avoid turning the ball over.

But if they give the ball away twice in the first half? Forget about it.

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Surprisingly, though, when we dig into the advanced stats and layer in the caveats, the -6.5 point line makes perfect sense.

The Hokies, despite their record, enter the game with an ELO advantage of 11 points. ELO is all about the results of each game and the quality of the opponent at the time.

Although Tech has lost five games already this season, only the Wake Forest loss was particularly bad in ELO terms. The Hokies really should have won that game. It took an incredible amount of bone-headed, drive-extending penalties to lose it.

Contrast that with Cal, whose best win was over Minnesota and whose losses include a shocking 34-0 defeat at the hands of mighty San Diego State University and a 45-21 drubbing by Duke. Both of these games were played in the state of California, so traveling to the East Coast was not an issue.

However, travel will be an issue Friday night.

Cal, working on a slightly shortened week, is coming off a 21-18 win over lowly North Carolina. This will be the second cross-country trip for the Golden Bears, who defeated Boston College in Chestnut Hill 28-24 a few weeks back.

Boston College is horrendous.

Throw in an extra week of prep for the Hokies, including some presumed healing among the myriad injured players, and one does not need to squint to see why Tech is favored to win the game.

But win by nearly a touchdown? If you think that seems a bit much, read on. The Hokies have some favorable matchups in this game.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Cal’s defense has been pretty good this season, Even in the blowout loss to SDSU, the Bears only allowed 321 yards.

In the two games Cal has lost, the opposing quarterback was very efficient:

• Jayden Denegal (SDSU): 15/18, 186 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

• Darien Mensah (Duke): 22/30, 265 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

In contrast, Cal’s freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, threw only one touchdown opposite five interceptions in those two games.

If Kyron Drones is efficient and does not give the ball away, the Hokies should win the game.

Cal has been pretty good against the run, but again, the bears have not faced strong competition.

The most telling stat is the 14.6% stuff rate the Cal defense has put up this year. This is not a team that plays in the backfield.

Translation: the Tech offensive line, with its 18.3% stuff rate allowed, actually stands a chance.

BC and UNC combined to average 21 points scored in their losses to Cal. Playing at home at night with an extra week to prepare, the Hokies should be good for at least 24 points, if not 28.

When Cal has the ball

The Golden Bears do not have a good offense. Their overall EPA/play is 62.5% that of Virginia Tech’s offense. And Virginia Tech’s offense is…limited.

Cal struggles mightily to run the ball (0.00 EPA/run). Tech’s defense has been terrible against the run (0.51 EPA/run allowed). Something has to give.

Don’t expect the Tech defense to totally shut down the run, but Cal will have to throw to win, and that will be tough.

Cal’s EPA/pass matches that of Virginia Tech’s offense at 0.18. Can you imagine the Hokies having to throw to win?

They’d lose!

It is no surprise that with such a bad running game Cal struggles to stay on schedule (40.5% success rate). Here, they will encounter a pliable Tech defense (45.1% success rate allowed), but considering that Bears allow a 19.4% stuff rate and their quarterback has struggled of late, it is hard to imagine them going up and down the field on Tech.

And should Cal move the ball some, they still have not demonstrated an ability to finish drives with touchdowns. On the year, the Bears are averaging 3.63 points per trip inside the opponents’ 40-yard line.

Once again, that is an unadjusted advanced stat accumulated against a very weak schedule.

Final thoughts

Ok, so the line makes sense. Does it mean anything?

The Hokies have been chronically overrated dating back to…the Fuente era? Longer?

If nothing else, this should be a good game. Nothing in the numbers suggests a blowout in either direction.

Tech has a really good chance to pick up a third win, which would give everyone around the program some hope entering November, when the schedule toughens up.

Not to say that the schedule has been easy. South Carolina’s regression was predictable, but Vanderbilt is legit (that week 2 loss doesn’t look as bad anymore). The rest of Tech’s opponents have been between decent (ODU and NC State) and excellent (Georgia Tech).

This Tech team has been through a lot in the last two months. The Hokies are both battle hardened and well rested. And this game has been penciled in as a win since before the season started.

If not now, when?

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Don’t get me wrong, 13th ranked Georgia Tech is favored by 13.5 points for a reason.

Nominally, one would give weight to the fact that Georgia Tech is the home team and had an extra week to prepare for the Hokies.

However, at 2-4 and led by an interim coach, the 2025 Hokies are not the sort of team that motivates its opponents to dial in.

If anything, all that time off before hosting a lackluster opponent would suggest that perhaps Georgia Tech might come out lethargic.

Psychology aside, Georgia Tech is in the middle of a long run of soft games. Duke is the only half decent team that the Yellow Jackets will play between now and the finale against Georgia.

But, the question at hand is, do the not-quite-half-decent Hokies stand a chance of pulling the upset?

Surprisingly, yes.

Undefeated record and top 15 ranking aside, Georgia Tech hasn’t really played anyone. Their best win was over three loss-Clemson.

As a result, the Yellow Jackets enter the game with a 1568 ELO, which is on par with a seven-win team playing an average P4 schedule.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

The Hokies will probably struggle to move the ball against a stout Georgia Tech defense.

The Yellow Jackets are equally strong against the run and the pass, they do not give up explosive plays, and they allow a low success rate.

Combined with Virginia Tech’s below average offensive firepower, a reasonable expectation would be two to three Virginia Tech turnovers.

The key to scoring points will be field position, and there again the Yellow Jackets are the better team, by nearly two yards in average starting position.

The one advantage the Hokies offense has is average points on opportunities inside the opponents’ 40-yard line, where Virginia Tech is nearly one point better than Georgia Tech.

The Hokies are averaging 21.9 points per game on 5.2 drives that cross the opposing 40. Meanwhile Georgia Tech allows an average of 14.2 points per game on 4.6 such drives.

In football terms, the Hokies are scoring two touchdowns and kicking three field goals per game when they enter the scoring zone.

Even if they trade one of those touchdowns for a fourth field goal, it is imperative that the Hokies score every time they cross the Yellow Jacket 40.

When Georgia Tech has the ball

Georgia Tech is known for its ability to run the ball, but what gets talked about less is how the run game sets up the pass.

The Yellow Jackets enter the game with a 0.35 EPA per passing play, twice that of the Hokies.

It is hard to imagine the Hokies shutting down that passing attack, especially since the porous Hokie run defense will probably require reinforcements (e.g., an eight-man box).

The Georgia Tech offense is not explosive, but it does a great job of staying on schedule, thanks in part to a low stuff rate. The Yellow Jackets generally move in one direction - forward.

Expect Sam Siefkes to apply pressure on first down to try to get the Georgia Tech offense behind the sticks. All of Georgia Tech’s offensive advantages evaporate if the Hokies can get them into second and long consistently.

Action inside the Hokie 40-yard line will also be key. Georgia Tech is averaging 20.2 points per game on six trips inside their opponents scoring zone. Here, the Yellow Jackets are less efficient than the Hokies.

The trouble is that the Hokies defense is allowing 24.5 points per game on 5.2 trips inside its 40-yard line.

Combining these numbers with the numbers presented earlier when Virginia Tech has the ball, the expectation is that Georgia Tech will outscore the Hokies 22-17 on trips inside the forty.

Given that offensive explosiveness is nearly equal for the two offenses, but the Virginia Tech defense allows more explosive plays, the Hokies will need to either stiffen up on defense when Georgia Tech gets in the scoring zone, or do better at limiting explosive plays.

Of course, the Virginia Tech defense’s numbers are weighed down by the terrible performances against Vanderbilt and Old Dominion. The Hokies have been better since then, but those games still count.

Final thoughts

PFF grades point to a few favorable matchups for the Hokies.

Georgia Tech is a very average run blocking team (60.3), and the Virginia Tech defense actually grades out well against the run (84.2).

Additionally, the Yellow Jacket defense is not particularly strong in the areas where the Virginia Tech is weak:

• VT has been horrible in pass blocking (46.7), but the GT pass rush is just alright (65.3)

• GT is not a great tackling team (60.7), and for all the talk the GT run game gets, VT’s rushing offense actually has graded out better (82.3 vs. 78.9)

Virginia Tech does have a chance to pull the upset.

Pay close attention to the first two times each offense crosses the opposing 40-yard line. In order to win the game, Virginia Tech probably needs to net a five to seven point advantage in this metric.

If the Hokies can get touchdowns on both trips and limit Georgia Tech to field goals, good things could be in store.

Anything less will likely end in defeat.

Phillip Montgomery remains five victories away from becoming Virginia Tech’s full-time head coach, and there are only six games remaining in the regular season.

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Forty carries for 200+ yards is very possible, and would probably result in a Virginia Tech win.

I took a screenshot of the moment when the Hokies hit 200 yards on the ground. Turns out, they did in half the carries, thanks in large part to Terion Stewart’s 85-yard run.

As good as home cooking tastes, the Hokies are likely to encounter a much stiffer Wake Forest defense this week. On the flip side, the Wake offense does not pack nearly as much offensive punch.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Wake Forest’s defense is much better than NC State’s.

The Demon Deacons are excellent against the pass and solid against the run.

It is very possible that Wake will stack the box, similar to what the Wolfpack did last week, and trust its secondary to hold up on the outside. Given Tech’s youth along the offensive line, that would probably be a sound strategy.

Regardless of what the defense does, look for Tech to try to establish the run with the one-two punch of Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins. We have yet to see the Hokies give either back significant carries in a game, much less both in the same game.

Wake’s defensive numbers suggest that the best strategy for Tech’s offense this week is to give the ball to their stocky running backs and pound away on the defense for four quarters. The hope would be that the defense wears down as the game goes on.

An ideal breakdown of designed runs would be the following:

• Hawkins: 18 carries

• Stewart: 15 carries

• Drones: 8 designed carries

Stewart played a great game last week, but some of the pain he dishes out via his love of contact does reflect back on him. If he’s going to make it through the rest of the season, the Hokies really need to limit his touches. Fifteen carries is a logical maximum for one game.

Hawkins offers much more in the passing game and has demonstrated better durability. so he should get more snaps and more carries.

The two running backs are the highest graders on the Tech offense through five games:

• Stewart: 79.5 offense, 41.9 pass, 87.1 run

• Hawkins: 76.9 offense, 66.2 pass, 77.9 run

Wake does have a very high defensive stuff rate (27.6%), so it will be important for Tech’s line to get a good push up front.

Finally, Wake is very good at limiting opponents to field goal attempts once they get inside the 40-yard line. John Love will likely attempt three or four field goals, but it is important that the Hokies also score some touchdowns.

When Virginia Tech is on defense

Wake Forest appears weakest up front on offense. The Deacons allow a stuff (2 yards or less) on 25.2% of their runs.

Meanwhile, six out Virginia Tech’s seven highest graders on defense play along the defensive line.

As of Saturday morning, Wake quarterback Robby Ashford and running back Demond Claiborne are both listed as probable. However, they will not be 100%.

Claiborne is very hit or miss. At first blush, his stats look pretty gaudy (8.0 yards per carry jumps off the screen). However, he put up more than half of his total yards on Western Carolina.

He did play well against Georgia Tech last week, though, running for over 100 yards on 21 carries.

Ashford has thrown for at least 200 yards in every game this season, but his completion rate is under 60%, and he has only thrown one touchdown opposite three interceptions.

Ashford is a capable runner when healthy, so keep an eye on his mobility early in the game.

Wake Forest has only played two P4 teams this year, which makes their 37.0% success rate worse than it appears. And it looks none-too-good.

Overall, if the Tech defense of weeks 1, 4, and 5 shows up today inside Lane Stadium. then Wake Forest should struggle to move the ball consistently. In that case, twenty points allowed looks like a reasonable ceiling.

X-factors

Wake has lost two games in a row and is coming off a gut-wrenching, referee-assisted, overtime defeat at the hands of Georgia Tech.

The Deacons had sixteen days to prepare for that game and led by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

With their best offensive players battling injuries and the team trying to right itself after such a grueling loss, it is an open question just how much fight the Demon Deacons will bring to Blacksburg.

If Tech can wear Wake down, how soon will doubt creep in?

Meanwhile, the Hokies are in the exact opposite position. After losing their first three games, Tech has won two straight and is getting healthy just as conference play ramps up.

The Hokies have performed miserably at home this year, a trend unlikely to continue.

Philip Montgomery needs five more wins to become Virginia Tech’s full-time head coach, and these are the sorts of games Brent Pry always won by a million points.

Monty isn’t Pry, which is generally a good thing. In this instance, though, the result will probably be a more workmanlike, grind it out sort of game that the Hokies stand a great chance of winning.

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By that time, the Hokies, as well as most other college football teams, have played at least one good team, one bad team, and one mediocre team.

There are also at least 200 snaps that have been played on both offense and defense, which provides some statistical power to back up the story the numbers tell.

This season is different, or is it?

On the one hand, the Hokies that play on Saturday night at NC State have not played a football game this season, not as a post-Brent Pry, post opt-out team.

On the other hand, was Pry’s impact on gameday really that great? Is losing the players that have departed really that much different than when players get injured?

The optimistic case is the following:

• The offensive line appears to be getting healthier, and it was injuries upfront that originally set the tailspin in motion

• Losing uncommitted players is addition by subtraction

• Philip Montgomery is a better head coach than Brent Pry, especially on game day

The pessimistic case says:

• The defense is getting Covid-era thin at some positions (think 2020 North Carolina game at Edge and linebacker)

• If the players are half as dejected as the fans, the fight they put up from here on out will be minimal

• This team wasn’t even that good to begin with

Perhaps some numbers can help make sense of what is likely to transpire tonight at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh.

When the Hokies have the ball

First off, these teams are closer in terms of on-field potential than one might expect based on their records. NC State enters with an ELO of 1494, putting them just slightly below average in FBS. The Hokies, meanwhile, carry a 1449 ELO.

Translation: NC State is better, but maybe by a field goal on a neutral field, if you average out 10 such results. At home at night, the Wolfpack are probably about a touchdown better than the Hokies.

But that is all in the aggregate, and it considers hypothetical matchups in which the present remains the present throughout the entire game, i.e., nobody gets hurt and nobody emerges as a major factor.

NC State’s defense appears poised to make Tech’s offense look good, on the ground at least.

The Wolfpack are decent enough defending the pass to hold Kyron Drones to an average performance. Think something in the neighborhood of 60% completion, 200 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

Those yards, however, are likely to come on big, chunk plays. With the Hokies playing on the road against a team that struggles to stop the run, expect to see a healthy dose of Tech’s stable of running backs.

Forty carries for 200+ yards is very possible, and would probably result in a Virginia Tech win.

Here’s something else to keep in mind. As anemic as Tech’s offense has looked at times, the Hokies actually score more points on average when they cross the opponent’s 40 yard-line than NC State does.

The Hokies are also successful on 46% of their offensive plays, which is two percentage points better than the Wolfpack.

Where Virginia Tech has struggled is the lack of explosiveness on offense, and that is precisely what NC State’s defense appears set to rectify.

When NC State has the ball

As a team, NC State does not run the ball very well. An EPA/play of 0.07 on runs isn’t awful, but it’s not that much better than Tech’s 0.05.

If Sam Siefkes can successfully scheme against Hollywood Smothers (e.g., make Bailey keep the ball on options, stack the box, etc.), the Hokies defense might be able to put up a fight.

However, Virginia Tech’s 0.62 EPA/play allowed on runs is absolutely atrocious. Most likely, NC State will run the ball at will against the Hokies.

Another possibility is that Siefkes might sell out on offense to try to get NC State into second-and-long. NC State allows a surprisingly astronomic 33.3% stuff rate.

If Virginia Tech can consistently stuff first down runs, then the Wolfpack might be baited into throwing on second- and third-down.

Such a situation may or may not benefit Tech. The Hokies are getting thin in the secondary, and NC State quarterback CJ Bailey has put up huge numbers this season.

He will turn the ball over, though.

Again, the key appears to be pressure. Expect Siefkes to send extra rushers more frequently than Tech has shown through four games this season.

Overall

The Hokies are 0-0 in conference play. Florida St. lost at Virginia last night, and Clemson has two losses in conference (three overall). The ACC is wide open.

Many Virginia Tech players have a ton to play for. Seniors can improve their draft prospects. Underclassmen all have financial, and possibly transfer portal, considerations that should spur them to play hard.

Likewise, the coaches are all trying to put a good product on the field in order to improve their chances of landing a good job next year.

And at the top, no one has more on the line than Philip Montgomery. A 6-2 conference record (obviously very unlikely) would make him Virginia Tech’s coach in 2026. Even five wins might be good enough to get that interim tag removed.

Four wins would get him a P4 coordinator job or a shot at a G5 head coaching opportunity.

Two to three wins would give him a shot at a G5 coordinator gig.

Anything less, and he’s probably done coaching college football.

Tonight we will find out what has truly been lost in 2025, and what is still out there to be gained.

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The focus now is on the machinations surrounding the program, and the impending changes within the athletic department and coaching staff.

Still, there is a game to play, and while Virginia Tech is by far the more talented team, there is little reason to expect the Hokies to beat ODU tonight.

Seriously.

Unfavorable numbers

The Hokies, still winless on the season, have played games against two above average P4 teams in South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

ODU has defeated FCS North Carolina Central and lost to Indiana.

With those caveats in mind, the discrepancy between the two teams in terms of advanced stats is startling.

To put it simply, when Virginia Tech has the ball, it’s bad on good. When the Monarchs have the ball, it’s good on bad.

Another status quo performance by the Hokies in Lane Stadium tonight will result in a humiliating, double-digit defeat.

Given the negativity around the program following last week’s shocking second-half abdication of their home field, one cannot imagine the Hokies being particularly dialed-in this week.

That said, there are a ton of transfers on this team, guys who need to turn things around if they want any shot at an NFL camp invite. (I don’t see many, if any, draftees in the senior class).

Schematically, I’m looking to see whether or not Virginia Tech’s offensive coordinator, Philip Montgomery, opts for a massive change in tactics given his beat-up offensive line and that unit’s inability to protect quarterback Kyron Drones.

I’m not expecting a big change in the Tech offense, and as a result, I’m not expecting much change in the results.

On defense, the Hokies brought in half a million transfer safeties. None of them have played particularly well. In fact, if PFF is any indication, the Hokies are worse off at safety positions played by anyone other than Quentin Reddish than they were last year.

The linebackers have been underwhelming, as well. If Xavier Adibi’s boys do not show improvement this week, we aren’t likely to see it this year.

The biggest quantitative unknown at present is which group has a higher percentage of its people who have tuned out just two weeks into the season: the team or the fanbase.

If the numbers in that metric appear high and relatively close, things could get very ugly inside Lane Stadium.

I’m not predicting it, but I also would not be surprised if Old Dominion wins the game by three touchdowns.

That is how broken the program is at the present time.

What the BOV should be doing

Brent Pry is not the problem. His hiring was the result of deeper problems within the athletic department, the university, and the commonwealth of Virginia.

When Frank Beamer retired, following the 2015 season, Virginia’s Tech’s head coaching position was viewed nationally as good, but not great.

(Imagine if Frank had retired after the 2006 season. Might the Hokies have had a chance to hire West Virginia’s own Nick Saban? Alabama had more tradition, but at the time, Virginia Tech was unquestionably the better job.)

Following Beamer, the Hokies signed an up-and-coming coach in Justin Fuente, who was unaware of the cracks in the program’s foundation.

Fuente was loyal to a fault. In hindsight, he should have taken a better job after winning 19 games in his first two seasons in Blacksburg.

There were too many problems beyond his control that were only getting worse.

That much was clear when Brent Pry was handed the keys after the 2021 season.

Ask yourself, why is it Virginia Tech could not get anyone better to coach its football team? I, like most of you, had not even heard of Brent Pry before word leaked out that he would be the next head coach.

Pry was the anti-Justin Fuente, which I guess was enough to get him the job, but Fuente was never the problem.

The main problem is that in order to be a successful, fringe top-25 program, the Hokies need both better resources and more in-state talent.

Yes, talent in the high school ranks is a big issue.

Pay attention to Chris Coleman over at Tech Sideline. He talks constantly about the Washington Catholic Athletic Conference, and the great coaching the players in that league receive.

He doesn’t talk much about the 757 anymore, and really, he pays lip-service to the Richmond area.

Tech has done pretty well with WCAC kids in the last 10 years, but there are not enough of them to build a winning program.

The Hokies, as well as their rivals up in Charlottesville, need more in-state talent, but they are not going to get it until high schools start paying more to retain good coaches.

Talent follows good coaches, and the flow is headed straight out of state.

This trend was reinforced as I read Jeremy Haymore’s exquisite book The Bandana Express about the 1980 state champion Giles Spartans.

One of the stars of that team was Greg Mance, who would later achieve great success as the head coach at Richlands.

A few years back, Mance jumped at the chance to move to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to take his “dream job”. After all, the pay was better, he could still coach a good team, and the beach was right there. What’s not to love?

It’s not like Richlands, a Division 3 school, was sending a bunch of players to Virginia Tech, but that level of high school football in southwest Virginia formed a critical pipeline to Virginia Tech.

Logan Thomas is a prime example, having graduated from Brookville, a Division 3 high school in Lynchburg.

Take a survey of the high school coaches in southwest Virginia these days, and I doubt you’ll hear one describe his as a “dream job”.

The next head coach and athletic director are unlikely to know the details of the structural problems that have led to the downfall of the VHSL.

Until Virginia Tech’s Board of Visitors can pinpoint the factors driving the problems at the state level, and formulate a plan to advocate for their reversal, I’d just as soon keep the current regime at Virginia Tech in place.

There is no point in setting up yet another coach to fail.

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That is not the case this week.

The data on week 1 performances by the linemen on both sides of the ball is so stark, that I believe it will determine the outcome of Saturday’s game.

Vanderbilt’s offensive line

Vanderbilt is bad up front.

Of course, they were bad up front last year too, and that did not stop them from beating the Hokies.

In 2024, only one of Vandy’s starting linemen had an overall grade above 60. That was center Delfin Castillo. Tackle Chase Mitchell finished the year under 50.

Fast forward a year, and after one game against a terrible FCS team, I expected to find a bunch of gaudy PFF ratings for Vanderbilt.

And I did, in almost every category.

Every category, that is, except for blocking.

Mitchell looked much better in week 1 this year against Charleston Southern, grading out at 67.7. Only Jordan White, at center, graded out higher (72.2). But these above average grades came in a game against an FCS team that is so bad it would probably be only middling in Division II!

Of particular note was guard Cade McConnell, who graded out at 34.5 on 37 snaps, including a Bluto Blutarsky-esque 0.0 pass blocking grade on 23 pass blocking snaps!.

One has to imagine that former Hokie Gunner Givens, a backup guard who graded out at 62.3 (82.0 in pass blocking) on 36 snaps, will get a long look in practice this week.

He would certainly be motivated, both to play against his old team as well as close to home - he graduated from Lord Botetourt High School in Daleville, VA.

Either way, the Hokies have a massive advantage in the middle of the line when Vanderbilt has the ball.

Vanderbilt’s defensive line

If “bad” is the key word for the Commodore offensive line, then “unimpressive” would be the best word for the defensive line.

Vandy does have one legit player who could cause the Hokies trouble.

Miles Capers, a 6’4” 249 lb. edge player, has improved every year he has been in college:

• Freshman (2021) - 46.1 grade on 55 snaps

• Redshirt (2022) - DNP

• (R) Sophomore - 60.3 grade on 245 snaps

• (R) Junior - 71.2 grade on 517 snaps

Neither Johnny Garrett nor Tomas Rimac, Tech’s two starting tackles last week, showed much in the way of lateral quickness. In fact, I’m not convinced Rimac playing tackle was not a one-off thing driven by the individual matchups against South Carolina’s defensive line.

Whether Rimac starts at right tackle or the Hokies go with Montavious Cunningham, that position is the one area I would expect to see Vanderbilt attempt to exploit.

The rest of the Vanderbilt defensive line played alright last week, with PFF grades generally between 60 and 67, but those are not the types of grades one would expect to see from an SEC school playing against such an inferior opponent.

Tech’s defensive linemen notched grades in that range or above against a South Carolina team ranked in the top 15 nationally at a neutral site last week.

So, the matchup for Virginia Tech’s offensive line is more favorable this week. And that is important because the Hokies are very thin up front. The starters all seem ok, but this line goes about seven-deep right now, and players six (Brody Meadows) and seven (Jaden Muskrat) missed last week’s game with injuries.

Matt Moore would like to get through this game without having to play anyone farther down the bench in competitive snaps. If something does happen, though, and the Hokies are forced to play one of their young backup lineman, things could go south in a hurry.

Final Thoughts

The Hokies are 1.5-point home favorites. Home field advantage is generally worth 3 points, and one could argue Lane Stadium at night could be worth 3.5 or even 4.

That means the betting world believes Vanderbilt would squeak past the Hokies on a neutral field.

Combine that insult, accurate as it may be, with Vanderbilt’s upset win last year, and the Commodores should get the Hokies’ best shot.

I’m not sure many Vanderbilt players know what it feels like to get the best shot, on the road, from another P4 team.

It’s one thing to go play at LSU, where none of the 100+ thousand spectators in Baton Rouge believe you’ll be able to keep the game close, much less win it.

It’s completely different to go to an equally loud stadium where the fans believe they could be the difference between victory and defeat.

Will Vandy’s line get rattled and commit false start penalties? Will quarterback Diego Pavia face enough constant pressure to feel like he needs to press in order to move the ball?

My guess is the answer to both questions will be yes. That doesn’t mean the Hokies will win the game, but it certainly improves the odds.

Given the otherwise equal matchup, it could prove decisive.

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Of course, there is no pre-season in college football, so the result goes into the L column for the Hokies.

Still, it was a hard-hitting, but clean game, and both sides learned something about themselves.

Rather than jump to conclusions (Week 1 → Week 2 changes in SP+ are basically meaningless, seeing as only a few teams played actual, legit opponents right out of the gate), I’m going to review only the numbers that matter.

The noise will sort itself out in a few weeks.

Overall

On Saturday, I shared data showing that many ACC teams were underrated in week 1. Virginia Tech was one of those teams, and although South Carolina covered, the game was much closer for much longer than many people expected.

In terms of ELO, the game was worth 24 rating points. South Carolina is now up to 1729, second on Tech’s schedule only to Miami (1752). Louisville is the only other future Tech opponent over 1700.

The Hokies are now at 1575 rating points. Based solely on ELO, Virginia Tech should be favored in their next seven games.

Quarterback

I’ll skip the headline numbers, which by now most readers have already digested from other sources, and instead focus on two things that seem to have flown under the radar:

1. Sunday was the first time that Kyron Drones had taken game reps since the Clemson game last year. It had been nearly 10 months since he played a snap in any semblance of good health. It has not been confirmed, but there is a good chance Sunday was the first time Kyron got live reps period in 2025. He missed the Spring Game, and coming off surgery, I doubt Pry & Co. let anyone hit him during training camp. When you factor that in with Carolina’s constant pressure, it’s no surprise that he had mechanical and judgement lapses. He has a lot of rust to shake off. I would not expect him to hit his stride until the NC State game, at the earliest.

2. Last week I listed the Drones/Montgomery fit as a factor that could possibly cost the Hokies a game or two this year. In that regard, I was pleasantly surprised by the progress Drones displayed. He completed 3 out of 8 passes that travelled more than 20 yards in the air. Those three completions were good for 85 yards. Last year, he completed 9 out of 28 such attempts for 312 yards. The year before he completed a dreadful 9 out of 42 for 412 yards. He put many of the deep passes right on the money Sunday afternoon against very tight coverage. And he would have had a couple more completions had his receivers been able to complete the catch as they went to the ground. Then, of course, there was the completion to Ayden Greene that got called back due to the chop block. But you get my point. Whereas in past years Drones often wildly overthrew his receivers, against the Gamecocks he consistently threw passes into tight windows where only his receivers had a chance to make the catch.

Running backs

We know Terion Stewart was injured and did not travel with the team, but Braydon Bennett’s absence from the game was notable. I doubt PJ Prioleau is the true #2 tailback. Perhaps that position group has been hit by more injuries than Pry has let on.

Defense

Caleb Woodson did not start, due to his DWI charge a week ago, but he played the most snaps (47) of any defender. That tells us a few things:

• He’s the leader of the defense

• He’s much better than his backup, Antwone Santiago

• Pry was confident that playing him would not negatively impact the team’s culture or discipline

Defensive line

The constant player rotation was excellent. There were no hands on hips. The burst at the end of the game was just as good as it had been in the first half. Sure, LaNorris Sellers had a few big runs on the final drive, but he was scrambling away from pressure. One does not expect to see that level of pressure against an SEC opponent late in a game that was no longer in doubt.

The players that Sam Siefkes targeted in the transfer portal, namely Kody Huisman (27 snaps, PFF 77.4) and Elhadj Fall (22 snaps, PFF 84.7), played their roles to perfection. Notably, they were the two highest graders per PFF on the defense.

Linebackers

This week the starting WLB is listed as Jaden Keller OR Michael Short. While the Hokies will probably continue to play both guys, I would expect Short to get more than 50% of the snaps against Vanderbilt, and possibly as many as 75%. Just look at what each player did against South Carolina:

• Jaden Keller: 31 snaps, 49.0 PFF grade

• Michael Short: 24 snaps, 77.2 PFF grade

Keller received the second lowest grade on defense, while Short received the third highest. Siefkes is not a sentimental guy. Short has earned more snaps, and he will very likely get them this week.

Secondary

Isaiah Brown-Murray held up alright (PFF 66.6), but Dante Lovett (54.5) and Caleb Brown (35.0) really struggled. The rotation was pretty even between the three, but I would expect IBM and Lovett to play “starter” level snaps and Brown to be in the 15-20 range (he got 21 against South Carolina) moving forward.

I was surprised to see Jordan Bass in the game late. Perhaps Prioleau played him out of frustration. Quentin Reddish (PFF 65.1) was ok, but Tyson Flowers was sub-60. Both Bass and Sherrod Covil received grades in the mid-60s. The rotation there will probably continue.

Isaiah Cash (PFF 63.8) and Christian Ellis (PFF 51.7) split the nickel snaps equally, but Cash graded out much higher. I don’t think either is a true nickel, so it will be interesting to see how this competition evolves.

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I pondered this issue all summer, but only in the last few days did I hit on what I believe is a solution worth sharing.

ELO vs. Spread

Two metrics for which we have data are ELO and the game spreads.

ELO is a rating system originally developed to rank chess players. It is a retrospective metric, meaning that it looks backward at who a given team has beaten.

Meanwhile, the spread looks at individual matchups and reflects betting action. If those putting their money on the line suddenly shift in mass toward one team or the other, the spread will reflect that change in sentiment.

To create a baseline expectation, we can plot all the matchups in a given week on a graph that has the spread on the y-axis and the ELO delta on the x-axis.

Overlaying a trend or average line onto the graph creates a line of expectation at each level of ELO delta.

Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina

ACC teams in the chart above appear as either maroon (when the ACC team is home) or orange (when the ACC team is away).

Maroon dots above the dashed line represent games in which Las Vegas believes the ACC team, playing at home, is underrated compared to its opponent (the ELO delta is greater than it should be).

Likewise, orange dots below the line represent games in which the traveling ACC team is underrated.

The Virginia Tech at South Carolina game is the orange dot below the line with a box around it. The Hokies, who are technically the road team despite the neutral venue, have an ELO delta of -108, but are only 8-point underdogs. As the graph shows, the expectation is that the home team with that level of positive ELO delta would be closer to a 10-point favorite.

The Hokies enter week 1 with an ELO of 1598, a bit above the midpoint of 1500. South Carolina, meanwhile, has an ELO of 1706 which is good, perhaps reflective of an 8-4 P4 team with an average strength of schedule, but not the #13 team in the country.

So, if Las Vegas is correct, not only are the Gamecocks not the 13th best team in the country, but they might not even be a top-25 team.

For all the hype about LaNorris Sellers, the sober take may prove accurate. South Carolina plays against teams currently ranked in the top-25 in six of its final seven games.

If the Hokies were to win the game, South Carolina could conceivably struggle to gain bowl eligibility.

Three other matchups involving ACC teams

Overall, ACC teams are overrated in comparison to their competition in only 3 out 12 games if we take weeks 0 and 1 together.

In addition, there are three games in which the ACC team is very underrated compared to its opponent

1. Notre Dame (ELO = 2173) at Miami (1736)

   1. The Irish are only a 2-point favorite in a game they should be favored to win by 17 if the ELOs for each team are accurate

2. Georgia Tech (1536) at Colorado (1634)

   1. The Yellow Jackets were a 4-point favorite in a game that the home-standing Buffs should have been favored to win by 10

   2. Georgia Tech won 27-20

3. Syracuse (1499) at Tennessee (1776)

   1. The Vols are 14-point favorites in a game they should be favored to win by three touchdowns

Ultimately, the results of this weekend’s high profile non-conference games will define the relative strength of the conference.

As play begins, though, those whose money is on the line believe many ACC teams will outperform expectations.

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Although the new numbers do not contain any real surprises for Virginia Tech fans, they do paint a clear picture of where the program is at the beginning of Brent Pry’s pivotal fourth season as head coach.

Virginia Tech ranks 40th nationally and 9th out 17 ACC teams. In the national ranking, the Hokies are one spot below Georgia Tech and four below Cal.

In turn, the Hokies are ranked five spots higher than NC State and six above Stanford.

Conference comparison

Given their point rating of 712.19, the Hokies would rank as follows if they were members of the other power conferences:

• Big 12 - 6th place out 17 teams (including VT)

• Big Ten - 11th place out of 19 teams

• SEC - 16th place out of 17 teams

The Hokies’ talent rating would place them first in every non-power conference.

With all the talk about the Big Ten and SEC breaking off and forming a super league, it’s pretty clear that from a quantifiable talent perspective, the SEC is in a league of its own, while the Big Ten is about on par with the ACC. The Big 12, while still well ahead of the non-power leagues, trails the other power conferences.

The major difference between the ACC and the Big Ten is that the latter is top heavy, with four of its teams in the top 15 (and two in the top five) compared to only two ACC teams in the top 15 (and none in the top five).

That advantage evaporates when we zoom out - both conferences have 12 teams among the top 50 nationally.

The SEC has 8 of the top 15 and 15 of the top 50 schools. Meanwhile, the Big 12 does not have a team in the top 15, but does manage to place 10 schools in the top 50.

Virginia Tech outlook

Talent matters, but when setting win expectations it is equally important to consider the talent of a team’s opponents.

The Hokies will play a challenging schedule in 2025, but there are no matchups against truly elite teams.

The toughest test will come against Miami, #15 nationally in talent, but Tech gets the Hurricanes at home in late November.

The next hardest game, this week against #18 South Carolina, is at a neutral site, albeit one much closer to Columbia than Blacksburg.

The only other game the Hokies will play against a top-35 opponent is on the road at #19 Florida St. The Seminoles are coming off a disastrous 2-10 season in which they were (supposedly) the 13th most talented team in the country. In addition, the Hokies will have an extra week to prepare for that game.

Another major factor working in Tech’s favor is that the Hokies will only play four true road games this year, and none of them is a guaranteed loss, although the Team Talent model I created does not expect a win at Florida St. under any scenario.

Speaking of that model, I kept things really simple. The table includes each opponent’s talent ranking and the delta from Virginia Tech’s. From there, VT Win Chance was calculated by starting at 50% and adding 0.05 for every spot higher in the rankings Tech is compared to its opponent or subtracting by the same amount when the Hokies are the less talented team.

The binary predictor simply considers which team is more talented. The best case column swings all games in which Tech has a 45% chance of winning or greater into the win column, while the worst case column moves all games with a 55% chance of winning or less into the loss column.

Overall, the baseline win expectations, in both the detailed (VT Win Chance) and the more crude (Binary W/L) come out at seven wins.

The best case scenario is nine wins, while the worst case scenario is five. Subjectively, I can see a path to victory in every game, but a realistic path to defeat in only nine games.

If the Hokies lose at home to ODU, Wofford, or Wake Forest, we would likely be looking at changes in the team’s, and the athletic department’s, leadership.

Last season the Hokies lost all the 50/50 games. The floor is lower this season, as doing so would cost the team bowl eligibility. However, the ceiling is higher than most realize and the baseline is one win better than in 2024.

If nothing else, there is reason for (guarded) optimism in Blacksburg as we embark on the start of another college football season.

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There are two ways of looking at Virginia Tech’s strategic options leading up to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl:

1. With so many opt-outs and transfers, there is almost no chance of winning, so treat the entire experience as an opportunity to further develop the players who remain with the program.

2. Because of the talent and depth disparity, the only chance for victory is to call an extremely aggressive game, e.g., trick plays, exotic blitzes, and new or unused plays that have not been shown on film.

Obviously, Brent Pry & Co. went with option #1, which was in some ways disappointing. As I wrote on Friday, I was excited to see if Tyler Bowen could cook up a scheme that would give the offense a chance to put up some points.

I went to bed Friday night thinking he tossed in the towel weeks before the game even kicked off.

But I chewed on that notion for the rest of weekend and hit on a possible alternative scenario.

Perhaps, knowing his players’ limitations - experience for almost all, and talent for some (namely the walk-ons) - Bowen, as well as the defensive coaches, elected to keep things as simple as possible in the hope that it would free the players’ minds, allowing them to play fast.

Evidence in support of this theory includes:

1. Dearth of penalties (especially of the pre-snap variety) - just 3 total for 33 yards

2. No awful blown coverages or missed gap assignments - Minnesota’s longest play from scrimmage was 35 yards; in contrast, the Hokies had two plays over 40 yards

Overall, there was a lot of good, and some bad, in this game. Let’s tackle the good first.

Reasons for optimism

Prior to this game, walk-on linebacker Josh Hand had played only three defensive snaps in his career. Hand is a R-So, so he just completed his third year in the program.

On Friday, he played 14 snaps as the second-team will linebacker and acquitted himself well. According to PFF, he graded out at 60.5.

Another walk-on who really stepped up was center Caleb Nitta. Pry talked up Tommy Ricard prior to the game, so maybe there was an injury or illness that pressed Nitta into action, but he played all 51 snaps on offense and earned a 59.5 grade, which is just below the baseline of 60.

That is a really solid showing for a guy who entered the game having played only 11 snaps in his career, and those came in mop-up duty.

There were no snap or quarterback exchange issues, and he didn’t resort to holding when he got beat. And keep in mind, he is just a R-Fr.

There were other bright spots too:

• Ayden Greene, who had 6 catches for 115 yards, looks like he is primed to break out in 2025. Before the game I had predicted that Ali Jennings would have a big game. Right position, wrong player.

• Tyler Mason showed off his speed and graded out 30 points higher than Jeremiah Coney in pass blocking.

• Bob Schick earned an 86.5 grade on his pass blocking. The Hokies are fortunate that he will return in 2025.

• On defense, Caleb Woodson (71.0) and Dante Lovett (68.3) look like stars in the making. They were not perfect, but both played well in this, their sophomore seasons. They are a good off-season away from earning honorable mention All-ACC in 2025.

• The defensive linemen slated to return in 2025 - listed in descending order according to the number of snaps played: Keyshawn Burgos (66.8), Kelvin Gilliam (72.8), Aycen Stevens (69.4), Jason Abbey (62.8), Emmett Laws (76.1), Jorden McDonald (70.7) and Gerard Johnson (61.2) - also turned in solid to good performances.

When Pry spoke after the game about the strong position the Hokies are in, he was no doubt alluding to the depth in the program. Most of the players listed above are a year or two away from being expected to compete for starting roles.

That these third and fourth string players held up so well against a solid Big Ten team that speaks to the level of competition within the Virginia Tech program.

The Hokies never looked like they were going to win the game, but they also did not look overwhelmed. And they competed very hard for 60 minutes. The players, and coaches, will learn a lot when they break down the game film.

Reasons for concern

The score was not indicative of how soundly the Hokies were beaten. Their post-game win expectancy was just 0.5%.

Tech’s EPA per play (-0.13) was atrocious and Minnesota’s (0.30) was comfortably above its season average of 0.20 (and the average allowed by the Hokies, which was 0.08 entering the game).

Virginia Tech’s offensive line allowed a 31% stuff rate, which resulted in the Hokies playing behind the chains all night.

And despite the individual efforts highlighted above, the Hokies’ defense allowed 3.3 offensive line yards on average per play, and achieved a stuff rate (13%) well below their season average (19%).

Really, this game reiterated a theme for the whole season. Pry & Co. have rebuilt the depth within the program, so the Hokies can absorb injuries to star players and remain competitive. This was no 2021 Pinstripe Bowl redux.

At the same time, the depth, like the starters this past season, is good, but not elite.

The 2025 team’s fate will depend on the guys the team is able to pull out of the transfer portal.

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In theory, the Duke’s Mayor Bowl features a really even matchup between two teams that are better than their records would lead you to believe.

In theory, anyway.

In reality, the bowl features X% of the 2024 Golden Gophers against Y% of the 2024 Hokies, and it is impossible to solve for those variables.

The Hokies would appear to be without more key players than Minnesota, but until the game kicks off, it is anybody’s guess as to how many of the remaining players for both teams actually want to play the game.

Before the transfer portal prematurely gutted rosters, the old adage was that, outside of the major bowls, the team that wanted to be there the most often won the game.

At the team level, the motivation factor would seem to be a push, but this game could come down to a few elite individual performances. Those will depend on both motivation and individual matchups.

This should be a fascinating game, and aside from watching for pure enjoyment, there are a number of key factors to which I will be paying close attention.

What to watch for

1) Will Tyler Bowen succeed in scheming around the offensive line’s deficiencies?

Although PFF grades make a compelling case for solid improvement along the offensive line this year, the top three linemen from the 2024 team have already left the team, putting Virginia Tech at a distinct disadvantage.

What’s worse is that there will be no Kyron Drones or Bhayshul Tuten to bail out the offense and keep drives alive.

Tyler Bowen has had some really good game plans this year, but he will need to be at his absolute best if the Hokies are to have a chance to put up a decent offensive showing.

2) Who will make a case for a starting role in 2025?

Although Tech will be without most of its top performers from this season, the guys behind them on the depth chart were, in many cases, more talented.

Many of these players are still a year or two away, but standout performances in Charlotte could really accelerate career trajectories.

The players all know this is a big opportunity for them.

Best case scenario, the fanbase will emerge from this game with three names to hype during the offseason who, up until kickoff, had been afterthoughts.

If the Hokies can net out positive on great vs. terrible performances from the depth pieces forced into action, they will have a chance to actually win the game.

3) Will Bud Foster’s contributions be noticeable?

The big knock on the defense under Chris Marve was that it was slow to adapt to the other team’s adjustments to his original game plan.

Bud Foster was the king of adjustments during his long tenure patrolling the Hokie sidelines.

In fact, one can imagine that, if Brent Pry were giving out White House-like titles, Foster would be the Defensive Adjustments Czar.

Long-term, Foster’s return to the team in some capacity is more fraught than many realize. Imagine what defensive coordinator candidates must be thinking. If they take the job, they would literally have Bud Foster being paid to look over their shoulder.

That, however, is a problem for tomorrow.

For Friday’s game, bringing Foster back is a brilliant move, and one that should make for a much more spirited, and exciting, defensive effort.

One last thought

Ali Jennings might be the Hokie most motivated to play well on Friday night. He was not invited to the Senior Bowl, as injuries have limited him for large chunks of time during his two years in Blacksburg.

At this point, he is unlikely to be drafted, and even a rookie free agent deal is far from certain.

Without the recently departed Jaylin Lane and Da’Quan Felton, and with Pop Watson at quarterback, Jennings appears primed for a big game.

While unlikely, it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility that Jennings could emerge from the Duke’s Mayor Bowl as the Hokies’ leading receiver on the season.

He is currently third on the team in yardage:

1. Stephen Gosnell - 27 catches for 497 yards

2. Jaylin Lane - 38 catches for 468 yards

3. Ali Jennings - 15 catches for 373 yards

Gosnell will play on Friday, and would figure to receive his fair share of targets.

Still, don’t be surprised if Jennings has a big day and ends the season with more than 500 yards receiving.

For context, that would be more than Eddie Royal ever had in a single season.

In his two most productive years, 2006 and 2007, Royal had 497 yards receiving and 496, respectively.

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Last night Boise St. punched its ticket to the playoff with a convincing win over UNLV.

The trajectory of the Boise St. program has mirrored Tech’s since the two teams played on the opening weekend of the 2010 season.

Unlike SMU and TCU, Boise St. did not win the conference realignment lottery.

In all honesty, it looked like the program’s window of opportunity to truly compete for a National Championship had passed.

So much for that!

With the 12-team playoff, they are not only in the field, but the Broncos will likely get a first-round bye.

And, don’t sleep on the season Army has had. The Cadets are 11-1 with a game remaining against Navy.

Yes, Notre Dame dominated Army a few weeks back, but rebounding to win the AAC Championship game over a good Tulane team is something to be noted.

If Army could remain in the playoff conversation this long, how can one not feel hopeful about Virginia Tech’s chances of doing the same in the coming years?

Game 1: ACC Championship

In 2022, SMU finished 7-6 overall, and 5-3 in the American Athletic Conference. It was, seemingly, a program going nowhere fast. That 2022 team was #63 nationally in team talent. Any sort of playoff talk would have been for humorous purposes only. Fast forward two years and the Mustangs are #25 in team talent, and they went through an easy slate of power conference games undefeated. There is no reason why Virginia Tech cannot do in 2025 what SMU is doing this year.

Game 2: Big 12 Championship

According to all the advanced stats displayed above, Iowa St. is basically a carbon copy of Virginia Tech. The main reason the Cyclones are playing for a spot in the playoff (and the Hokies are not) is that they went 4-1 in one-score games. In contrast, Virginia Tech went an agonizing 0-5. The whole thing with Brent Pry and his terrible record in one-score games reminds me of “Clemsoning”. Remember that verb du jour from about 15 years ago? Yeah, it was applicable until it wasn’t. Then Clemson became a juggernaut.

Game 3: Big Ten Championship

James Franklin’s run at Penn St. resembles Frank Beamer’s at Virginia Tech in the 2000s. The Nittany Lions field a great team just about every year, but they are never quite championship-level. Pennsylvania is a good state for talent, and these days it’s probably got more good players than Virginia (along with less in-state Division 1 programs), but the difference isn’t that great. In fact, for a long time Penn St. was poaching the best players out of Virginia. That pipeline appears to have diminished with recent coaching changes, including Brent Pry coming to Virginia Tech. I have always considered Penn St. the Virginia Tech of the north. If the Hokies can win more regional recruiting battles, they too can get back to enjoying a similar level of success.

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Saturday’s regular season finale against UVA was the cleanest, most straight forward game Virginia Tech has played in a long time.

APR wreaked havoc in the Wahoo backfield, as expected.

Tech’s cornerbacks locked down on Virginia’s wide receivers, as expected.

And the Hokies were able to move the ball up and down the field with relative ease, as expected.

The real significance of this game, however, was what didn’t happen.

Tech’s slippery QB3

Pop Watson carried the ball 11 times for 48 yards, but some of those rushes came when he scrambled away from pressure.

Still, UVA had its opportunities to rough up Watson.

They failed to do so.

Watson did not take any big hits, whereas Kyron Drones and Collin Schlee seemed to take at least three per game.

Part of that was a result of how Tyler Bowen called the game. Bowen appeared to replace QB powers with triple option RPOs, and Watson showed great comfort in moving horizontally along the line of scrimmage and holding the ball until the very last moment, at which time he would dump it off to an open receiver or tight end.

Even the announcers noted that Watson’s quickness and shiftiness harken back to Tyrod Taylor.

Watson’s ability to escape pressure and keep his eyes down the field paid off with three completions of 40 yards or more.

His style of play just attracts attention, and when the Wahoo safeties got caught peeking into the offensive backfield, good things happened for the Hokies.

Finally, Watson did a nice job of underthrowing his deep passes, which gave the receivers a chance to make a play on the ball.

It also can, and did, elicit pass interference calls.

Colandrea goes MIA

Tony Elliott’s decision to sit Anthony Colandrea, who had started all year at quarterback for Virginia, in favor of Tony Muskett was a head scratcher.

Maybe Elliott already knew Colandrea intended to enter the transfer portal, or maybe he really believed that Muskett gave the Hoos the best chance of winning the game.

Regardless, this one decision revealed the still yawning gap between the two programs.

As mentioned in Friday’s preview, Watson was the more sought after of the 2023 QB recruits, but Colandrea had a lot more college level game experience.

Colandrea’s snaps, however, came long before he was actually ready to play at the power conference level.

Watson, meanwhile, has spent his first two years at Virginia Tech getting stronger and learning the offense.

Even though he was pressed into action due to injuries to Drones and Schlee, he proved that he was ready to play.

So, the Hokies are poised to enter the offseason with potentially two starting caliber quarterbacks (Schlee is playing out his final collegiate season), while UVA has will have none (Muskett has exhausted his eligibility).

Other highlights and lowlights

This game was not as close as the score indicates - and the score says it was a blowout.

Tech’s post-game win probability was 99.7%. The main driver there was Tech’s enormous advantage in EPA/play on passing plays:

• Virginia Tech: 0.37

• Virginia: -0.05

Beyond that, Tech held a small advantage in most of the other key advanced stats.

One stat in which UVA was actually better was offensive stuff rate allowed. Virginia’s rate was 18%, about the average (19%) for Virginia Tech’s opponents this season.

Tech, on the other hand, allowed a whopping 24% of their runs to be stuffed. And the Hokies still ran for over 200 yards, so what gives?

Against quality opponents, many stuffed runs result in stalled drives. And stalled drives result in losses by one score or less.

Tech got away with it on Saturday, but the team’s high stuff rate allowed (18% entering Saturday’s game) has contributed to its very pedestrian success rate (40%), which is major hidden factor in the Hokies’ disappointing 6-6 record.

On defense, APR notched three more sacks, which barely merits mention.

Of course, APR has had a great season rushing the quarterback, but Virginia’s line was so weak that anything less than a multi-sack night would have been a real disappointment.

Back in the deep secondary, Jaylen Jones ended his regular season career in a strong fashion, grading out more than 10 points above baseline, as per PFF.

Mose Phillips, however, struggled once again, and the question will surely be asked by Brent Pry and his coaches, is Phillips the long-term answer at strong safety?

An answer could come soon enough via the transfer portal.

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Games that fans could once take for granted assuming Tech would win - hello Vanderbilt and Rutgers - are now toss-ups.

Frustrating as that may be, the opposite is also true.

Tech lost to #6 Miami on a questionable replay review that overturned a touchdown pass on the last play of the game.

The Hokies also played Clemson closer than they have in a decade, falling by 10 points at home.

At other schools, some very similar to Virginia Tech, the results have been surprising.

Not content to just play the blue bloods close, these schools have been winning at rates that put them in the playoff conversation.

Although it may not feel like it now, Virginia Tech is not that far from seeing results such as these.

Game 1: #15 South Carolina at #12 Clemson

Hiring Shane Beamer to succeed his father in 2016 would have been very tricky. It was unpalatable at the time, perhaps even politically impossible - if it didn’t work out, how could Virginia Tech fire an alum whose father was the greatest coach in school history? Still, in retrospect, Frank doesn’t look so crazy for mentioning his son as a possible successor. Even if Shane’s success at South Carolina is a sore spot for some Hokie fans, the fact that he is succeeding in the loaded SEC is reason to believe. Even more important, he is going head-to-head with Clemson on the recruiting trail and winning more than his fair share of top high school commits.

Game 2: #6 Miami at Syracuse

As the advanced stats show, Syracuse is not that good of a team. The Orange are, at best, ok. And yet, they are 8-3 and have a legitimate chance to beat Miami at home to end the regular season. Aggressive portal acquisitions and some in-season luck have combined to turn the program from a perennial six-game (or less) winner into one that is pushing for 10 this season.

Game 3: #24 Kansas St. at #18 Iowa St.

In terms of team talent and recent NFL draft picks, Kansas St. and Iowa St. are basically carbon copies of Virginia Tech. And yet, they have won eight and nine games, respectively, so far this year. The Big 12 is not as tough a conference as the ACC, but the ACC is a step down from the Big Ten and probably two steps down from the SEC. At the end of the day, the goal is to win as many games as possible and secure a playoff berth. After that, it’s all gravy. If these two teams can be in this position entering their last game of the regular season, then so too can the Hokies.

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After a 24-game wait, Pop Watson will finally get his opportunity to be Virginia Tech’s starting quarterback when the Hokies welcome the rival Virginia Cavaliers into Lane Stadium on Saturday night.

On the one hand, this game can be viewed as a battle between 5-6 teams seeking bowl eligibility, with the Cavaliers featuring a two-year starter behind center and the Hokies down to their third-string quarterback.

On the other hand, nearly every advanced metric favors the Hokies, and Watson, who was a higher rated recruit than UVA’s Anthony Colandrea (247Sports composite #40 QB in the class of 2023 vs. #72), only lacks experience because the Hokies have had the stronger quarterback room in recent years.

There are other storylines, though, and before the final whistle blows, they will have their say on the ultimate outcome.

The teams in a nutshell

The Wahoos are not heinous on either side of the ball. Indeed, Tony Elliott is slowly developing pockets of competence.

Every now and then, when the various bright spots - running back, one receiver, the secondary - come into alignment, the result can be half decent football.

But the good news for the Hokies is that these periods seldom span the duration of a football game.

The bad news is that they don’t have to.

If the NCAA adopted a new rule that retroactively banned all 2024 results from the third quarter of games, the Hokies might be a playoff team.

As it is, that one quarter has decided the last five Hokie losses:

• Rutgers outscored Virginia Tech 7-0 in the third quarter (26-23 final)

• Miami 7-3 (38-34)

• Syracuse 15-7 (38-31, OT)

• Clemson 14-0 (24-14)

• Duke 10-0 (31-28)

Combined, in their last five losses the Hokies have been outscored 53-10 in the third quarter. Ouch!

The Hokies have done well this year in limiting points per opportunity, as their opponents only average 2.8 points per trip inside the Virginia Tech 40-yard line.

That number would be even lower if not for all the touchdowns allowed in the third quarter of these losses.

Consider the effect on the final score if just one third-quarter touchdown were switched to a field goal:

• Virginia Tech beats Rutgers 23-22

• Virginia Tech and Miami go to overtime tied at 34

• Virginia Tech beats Syracuse 31-27 in regulation

• Clemson beats Virginia Tech 20-14

• Virginia Tech beats Duke 28-27

Of course, this is just a hypothetical and the fourth quarters of these games would have played out differently. However, it is instructive in that it shows just how close the Hokies are to being 9-2, 6-1 (if they could have beaten Miami in a hypothetical overtime), and in the thick of the conference and playoff race.

Five out of Virginia Tech’s six losses are by one score or less, and two came in overtime.

Meanwhile, five out of Virginia’s six losses were by two touchdowns or more.

So, the Hokies are either going to win big, or the Cavaliers will win a squeaker, leading the Virginia Tech fanbase to lose its collective mind.

When the Hokies have the ball

Virginia has weaknesses in all three levels of its defense.

Expect Tyler Bowen to attack on the ground between the tackles, where the interior of the Hokies line holds a distinct advantage.

Tech should be able to keep things pretty simple in the passing game, mixing crosses to Jaylin Lane with quick outs and comebacks to the wideouts.

Look for Watson to target whichever receiver is matched up against Jam Jackson (likely Da’Quan Felton), who at 6’2” has the size, but not the skill, to slow Tech’s receivers.

The Wahoos have not shown anything like Duke’s capability to generate a pass rush or stymie a rushing game. If you’re Pop Watson, you have to like your chances to play well.

If there is one concern for the Hokies, it’s the weather - it is forecasted to be really cold.

Virginia Tech’s receivers have already dropped a ton of passes. If they drop a bunch more on Saturday night, Peter Moore is going to be on the field a lot, and the score is going to be tight.

When Virginia has the ball

After a sub-par game at Duke, J.C. Price should have his defensive line raring to go against Virginia.

As Tech fans all know, Price harbors a special hatred for the Wahoos.

Motivation aside, Tech’s defensive line is far superior to the Virginia offensive line.

Not helping Virginia’s cause are injuries to their top two running backs. If Kobe Pace can go, he will likely be limited.

Virginia has a surprisingly low stuff rate allowed (12%), but the Hokies stuff their opponents at a 19% rate, and the matchups all favor Tech.

The Wahoos will surely try to isolate Malachi Fields against one of Tech’s safeties and hope to complete a few deep passes down the middle of the field. That will require the line to protect Colandrea long enough for the play to develop.

Translation: APR is going to have to opportunities to add to his sack total. It should not be a surprise if he gets home more than once.

The X-factor: more injuries

Both teams are weighed down with injuries to key players. One or two more for either team would likely be the deciding factor in the game.

Just imagine Bhayshul Tuten or Pop Watson rolling an ankle in the first quarter. Can you spell D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R?

If Pace is too beat up to play at a high level, the Wahoos will be completely one dimensional. Pair that with an offensive line that cannot pass block, and factor in a night crowd at Lane Stadium, and you’ve got all the fixings for a Virginia Tech blowout victory.

So, in the end, the game plan for Virginia Tech is pretty simple. Keep your quarterback and running back upright, and you will probably win.

However, if it were that easy, Tech would have a much better record than it does.

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It is now abundantly clear that the combination of talent and fit are the root causes of Virginia Tech’s underwhelming season.

It probably should not be as a big a surprise as it has been.

Brent Pry made it clear when he was hired that he was not going to poach any Penn St. players or recruits.

That decision put him behind the eight-ball because he was inheriting a defense whose younger players lacked talent (see: the disastrous 2020 and 2021 recruiting classes) and were poor scheme fits (Justin Hamilton’s defense is very different from Bud Foster’s and Brent Pry’s, which are much more similar to one another).

Pry was not a flashy hire and the NIL situation at Tech is good, but not great, so portal acquisitions have been mainly from G5 and lower level P4 teams, with noted exceptions found along the defensive line and at quarterback.

In 2022 and again in the beginning of the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Tyler Bowen tried to run the kind of offense best suited to sustainable excellence (i.e., don’t get your quarterback killed).

Although the results improved from year to year, ultimately, the Hokies did not have enough talent to run such an offense effectively. In the last two years, that has resulted in a mid-season switch to relying on more misdirection, which works fine in small doses but is not a panacea, and more quarterback runs, which results in injured quarterbacks.

An instructive comparison would be the offensive strategy Clemson employed when the Tigers were winning national championships with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence.

Not until the ACC Championship game and the playoffs did Clemson begin to incorporate quarterback runs as a major part of the offense.

Clemson had enough talent in those years to win most of its games while running a sustainable offense. Only when the Tigers faced teams with equal or better talent did they need the extra advantage that came with running their quarterback.

Because it was only for a few games, and there were longer layoffs than normal between games, Clemson could get away with it.

Had Dabo & Co. played that way every week, they’d have done the same to Watson and Lawrence as Pry & Co. have done to Drones and Schlee, and before that as Fuente did to Jerod Evans and Hendon Hooker.

Issues on offense

In Friday’s preview article I wrote:

With Collin Schlee the probable starter at quarterback for the Hokies, do not expect Virginia Tech to do much in the passing game. Duke is too good to allow many cheap completions, and Schlee has not yet demonstrated an ability to go through multiple reads and complete a pass downfield to a receiver with just a half-step advantage on his defender.

Additionally, although Schlee is supposedly healthy, it is doubtful that he’s 100%. And given the state of the offense, Tyler Bowen is going to have to run him a fair amount.

Translation: we’re likely to see Pop Watson play meaningful snaps. And while the offense does not change much when Watson is behind center, his game is different from that of the quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart.

The fundamental problem with the offense is not Tyler Bowen’s ability to call a good game. I cannot stress that enough.

The problem is that the Hokies do not have enough talent to run a sustainable offense. That was on full display Saturday night in Durham.

Collin Schlee was a big part of the run game early on because the Hokies needed to remove the natural man advantage the defense has when the quarterback hands the ball to a running back or drops back to throw a pass.

An active QB run game also forces the defense to blitz less and spy more, which protects the offensive line and/or makes it easier for the wide receivers to get open downfield (depending on if the spy is a defensive end or a linebacker).

Once Schlee got hurt, Tech was down to third string QB Pop Watson. Behind him is true freshman Davi Belfort, who is not ready to play in a game.

At this point, QB runs were significantly dialed back.

Duke knew the jig was up, so the Blue Devils sent the house on almost every play, resulting in Watson getting sacked eight times.

Ali Jennings played well, but he was the only receiver to grade out above 60, as per PFF.

There was a lot of hype coming into the season around the wide receivers, but their recruiting rankings (high school and transfer portal) never fully matched up. They struggle to get open, rarely make tough catches, and drop way too many passes.

In short, they were finished products when they transferred in. The scheme gave them no new advantage.

Fontel Mines is a good coach and recruiter, but the current wave of receivers is average, at best. The crop coming up behind them, as well as the young offensive linemen, will make or break Brent Pry’s tenure as head coach.

Defensive issues

Bud Foster was able to shut down opposing offenses for decades with a break-but-don’t-bend defense because he prioritized the following in recruiting:

• Elite secondary players

• Fundamentally sound middle linebackers (often trading away athleticism)

• Rangy and athletic backers (will linebackers)

• Twitchy, undersized defensive linemen who were good at shooting gaps and causing disruption in the backfield

As I mentioned earlier, the Brent Pry defense, as coordinated by Chris Marve, is aligned in its positional focus points (with the noted exception of defensive ends, who need to be taller in the age of the spread offense).

The defensive line is currently the closest to meeting these requirements, and it shows.

Caleb Woodson has played well at will linebacker, considering that he is a true sophomore and the position is new to him. He’s still a year away, but it looks like he’ll be a really good player for the Hokies.

Middle linebacker is a major concern.

Jaden Keller played about four times as many snaps on Saturday as Sam Brumfield, but it was the latter who graded out much higher than the former. Pry said before the game that Keller was pretty beat up, and my suspicion has been that Brumfield has been dealing with an undisclosed injury for more than a month.

Still, the issue moving forward is that Keller does not have the instincts to be a starting mike in this system, and there does not appear to be an heir apparent (Brumfield will graduate).

The corners, Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane, are good, but not great. Dante Lovett has a higher upside than both of them, but he is still a year away.

Marve has tried to use his corners to cover for the deficiencies at safety, namely Mose Phillips at SS, but without a true shutdown corner, Marve cannot roll his defense to the other side of the field and provide a numerical advantage for his weaker players.

Try as Marve might, he has not been able to hide Phillips in coverage. The corners get beat just enough in press man coverage, Jaylen Jones is merely serviceable at free safety, the pass rush is good but not great, and the linebackers are below average in coverage.

Add it all up, and you get what we have seen this season. Good enough to hang in there against good teams, but not good enough to beat them.

Again, the issue is personnel, not coaching. Supporting evidence includes, but is not limited to:

• Dax Hollifield, a true mike linebacker, had his best season by far under Marve’s tutelage (2022), improving from roughly a baseline player to a fringe All-ACC performer

• Quentin Reddish (who did not play Saturday and is likely injured), as a true freshman, has been Tech’s best safety

• J.C. Price has added players out of the portal who were elite recruits coming out of high school and fit Tech’s system better than the system they are coming from (Florida - APR, Oklahoma - Kelvin Gilliam, Alabama - Khurtiss Perry); APR and Gilliam have shined; Perry is a year away, but consider the following from his 247Sports scouting report:

  Stout, compact, but fairly broad front-line defender who lacks ideal height and length, but plays with electric functional athleticism and energy relative to size. Plays varied defensive roles with high activity and violence, from standing rush end to multiple interior spots. Pursuit ability is terrific relative to size and projected position. White-hot closing burst with chase-down athleticism from the back side. Strong tackler with big-hit capability. Heavy-handedness shines at the point of attack and in tackling efficiency. Sometimes detonates through traffic to make plays. Shows stack-and-shed strength, even against noticeably larger blockers. Knows how to get skinny to knife through gaps. Naturally plays to space, senses leverage, and bursts to nooks and crannies to disrupt. Displays excellent snap anticipation and first-step juice. Quick-footed with active, violent hands that foster disengaging ability vs. run and as a rusher. Screams off the edge whether aligned as standing rush end or with a hand in the dirt. Shows surprisingly good pass-rush get-off, dip, and arc-running ability.

  Now that is an ideal example of matching talent with scheme fit.

Moving forward

To become bowl eligible, Tech will have to beat UVA using a third-string quarterback and without the advantage of a heavy QB-run package. The odds are daunting, but the Wahoos are what they are, and the game is Lane.

For the last year, I have been thinking about why Tech has recruited players like Pop Watson and Davi Belfort to be the future at quarterback, when the present (Drones and Schlee) are bigger and stronger, but less shifty and less polished passers.

The answer I’ve arrived at is that big, powerful quarterbacks in the Logan Thomas mold result in Virginia Tech having a lower ceiling as a team.

The only way to take advantage of big, powerful, fast-in-a-straight-line quarterbacks is to run them a ton.

With mobile, shifty, quicker-than-they-are-fast quarterbacks in the Tyrod Taylor/Michael Vick mold, Tech can negate the inherent offensive line weaknesses (they don’t grow ‘em in the mid-Atlantic region like they do in the Southeast or Midwest) and gain the man advantage, with defenses spying not to takeaway designed runs, but more in reaction to scrambles and broken plays.

To win and become bowl eligible, the Hokies will need Pop Watson to be that guy on Saturday. His knowledge of the offense is obviously still a work in progress, but he will need to elude rushers while keeping his eyes downfield, and when forced to tuck and run, he will need demonstrate sufficient shiftiness to prevent defenders from getting clean shots on him.

It is a tall task, and Tech does not have ripe personnel around him to provide sufficient support. But at his point, that’s the only game in town.

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