By quarters of the season, here is how the wins and losses break down by SP+ ranking as of November 8 (wins are in bold):

• Q1: Virginia Military Institute (FCS), Old Dominion (122), at Maryland (79)

• Q2: at Boston College (95), Pittsburgh (35), at California (113)

• Q3: Georgia Tech (99), at Clemson (47), at SMU (16)

Looking at the 5 FBS wins and 3 FBS losses, here are the splits for average opponent SP+:

• Wins: 88.4 (5-0)

• Losses: 54.7 (0-3)

• Home: 85.3 (2-1)

• Away: 70.0 (3-2)

• Q1: 100.5 (2-0)

• Q2: 81.0 (1-2)

• Q3: 54.0 (2-1)

The next three games resemble the last three games, with an average opponent SP+ ranking of 58.3. But even that is heavily skewed by Miami, which currently sits at #3.

The Hokies are big favorites this week against Stanford and will likely be a touchdown (or more) favorite over UVA in a couple weeks. Win both of those games, with a loss at Miami sandwiched in between, and the Hokies would finish 8-4 overall, and 5-4 in the ACC.

Coming off a 3-9 campaign in 2025, those would be great results in James Franklin’s first year. Again, though, fans should not get ahead of themselves. This team is fallible, even at home against Stanford.

Take a look at where Tech stands in three advanced metrics:

The 2026 Hokies are an above average, but far from spectacular, team. As Cal demonstrated, Tech can lose to anyone on its schedule.

As the quality of its opponents has improved, Tech’s SP+ numbers have, not surprisingly, gotten worse:

At this point, I would expect the Q4 numbers to look a lot like Q3. For that to happen, the Hokies will need to play very well against Stanford.

Will they?

Probably.

Stanford has been notoriously terrible east of the Mississippi River since joining the ACC in 2024.

Although Stanford’s trip was not impacted by Friday’s FAA flight groundings, travelling from Palo Alto, California to Blacksburg, Virginia is not for the faint of heart.

Throw in a blast of cold weather and things look even better for the homestanding Hokies.

Those two factors will be a lot to overcome, especially for a team that does little, if anything, well.

There are no fine data points to dig into here. Tech has the advantage in just about every aspect of the game. Offense, defense, special teams. Even the offensive line has a chance to look good.

Only in stuff rate is Stanford’s defense within 20 percentile points of Virginia Tech’s offense. Overall, the Cardinal defense is worse than Old Dominion’s, but probably better than VMI’s.

Tech’s pass defense is bad and Stanford can throw it some. Will that matter?

It shouldn’t.

The Hokies defense has an advantage in every metric except explosiveness. The disparity there (57 percentile points better for Stanford) is concerning and suggests the Cardinal could reel off a few big plays, but Tech’s advantage is so great in every other area that there is no reason to believe Davis Warren & Co. will be able to keep up with the Hokie offense.

PFF continues to love the Hokies, even if the blocking grades have declined significantly in recent weeks.

Substituting letter grades for PFF grades, for the season Virginia Tech is a B+ team (C+ offense, B+ defense, B- special teams) and Stanford is a C- team (C- offense, D defense, C special teams).

At this point in time, given the injuries up front, the Hokies are probably playing at a B to B- level overall, which is still much better than Stanford.

All of this is to say that Saturday night’s game should not be close. The Hokies should win in a blowout.

However, teams seldom go up and down the field in frigid night games. Throw in the fact that Ethan Grunkemeyer has taken a beating of late, and we might see the Hokies lean more on the run game than they have throughout the year.

The Hokies can still win comfortably with Jeffrey Overton Jr. getting 20+ carries, Marcellous Hawkins getting 10+ and Grunkemeyer throwing less than 30 times, but the difference on the scoreboard might not be as great as it would be if the game were played in warmer weather earlier in the season.

In a strange twist, the cold increases Virginia Tech’s chances of victory while simultaneously making it more likely that Stanford keeps it close.

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Then SMU will come back, retake the lead in the second quarter, and cruise to victory in an underwhelming second half.

That is my expectation for the SMU game.

SMU is coming off a disappointing loss at Syracuse, and with a short week and a long return flight after last week’s game, all indicators point toward a hangover for the Mustangs.

Meanwhile, the Hokies were off last week and will enter this game healthier along the offensive line than they have been in a while.

Both Virginia Tech coordinators have had some extra time to evaluate and tweak their schemes, so SMU will likely encounter play concepts that the Hokies have not put on film yet this year.

All of this is to say that there will be an adjustment period, during which Virginia Tech will have a significant advantage.

However, once both teams settle in, there is every reason to believe that SMU will get the better of the Hokies.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

The Hokies’ offense is a shell of its former self due to all the injuries upfront. Virginia Tech’s skill position players have enjoyed good health this season, yet their production has tailed off in recent weeks.

These guys did not forget how to play football.

It’s clear now that the offensive line is holding back the overall unit, and there isn’t much anyone outside of the medical world can do about it.

SMU’s defense has a massive advantage in the trenches against the run, rating at least 40 percentile points higher than Virginia Tech’s offense in line yards per rush and stuff rate. Perhaps the Hokies will run more jet sweeps and even throw in some option to the perimeter, just to keep the Mustangs somewhat honest against what will likely be a pass-heavy Virginia Tech attack.

I expect the Hokies to be more aggressive than usual on first down. SMU’s defense is only in the 38th percentile in explosiveness allowed. It is also middle-of-the-pack in standard-down success. The Hokies need to stay out of third-and-long, as SMU is in the 90th percentile in passing-down success.

Overall, SMU presents an unfavorable matchup for the Hokie offense. Once the Mustangs adjust to whatever new wrinkles the Hokies bring with them to Dallas, expect it to be tough sledding for the boys in orange & maroon.

When SMU has the ball

Just as the numbers suggest that Tech will struggle to run the ball, so too do they suggest SMU will find few openings on the ground.

If SMU’s advantage in defending the run is “massive” then Virginia Tech’s is ginormous (defined as massive times 1.5). SMU has a similar inexperience problem in spots along the offensive line, and they have struggled all season to generate push up front.

Despite two good offenses featuring two very good running backs, there is not much likelihood that either finds much success against the opposing defense.

SMU’s strengths are in the passing game, and the Mustangs have every reason to throw the ball early and often.

Perhaps most concerning for Tech fans is a seldom acknowledged stat — average yards to goal (or the inverse of average starting field position). The Hokies are in the bottom quartile, while SMU is in the 93rd percentile.

The Mustangs’ offense is plenty good enough on their own. Gifting them even one short field may be enough to cost the Hokies the game. The key word is may, as the Hokies are in the top quintile in points allowed per opportunity (defined as an opposing team’s trip inside a team’s own 40 yard-line).

Closing thoughts

If one counts the metrics on which each team has an advantage, then SMU could be considered a slight favorite. Now add in the SMU’s home field advantage, and it becomes clear why the Mustangs are favored by touchdown, give or take.

That said, SMU has played only one half decent team this year (three-loss Louisville), and the Mustangs lost that game by 10 points. SMU’s best win might be a victory at home over Boston College by the underwhelming score of 25-16.

The schedule is about to get much more difficult, with games against Wake Forest and Notre Dame coming up after this week’s game against Tech. If the Hokies pull out a victory, SMU could easily enter its season finally against Stanford with a 6-5 record and on a four-game losing streak.

The Mustangs have a lot on the line Friday night. The Hokies will, undoubtedly, get their best shot.

The Tech formula for victory is as follows:

• Jump out to an early lead

• Apply relentless pressure on Jennings, forcing him to make a few bad decisions that the Hokies convert into turnovers

• Score touchdowns in the red zone, not field goals

• Four quarters of special teams excellence

Of course, that is almost every team’s formula for victory. In the end, SMU will either be as good as their numbers suggest, or as mediocre as their results against an unimpressive schedule imply.

The Hokies will need at least a ‘B+’ effort to win the game outright, and perhaps even more.

Is that possible on the road against a good team?

Yes.

Is it likely?

Unfortunately, no.

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As the Hokies are off this week, I figured why not send out the preview. I haven’t added or changed anything. I got some stuff right, and some wrong. Most glaring is the omission of Clemson’s three weeks to prepare for the game. That clearly had an impact on the game’s final score. Overall, I hope this further contextualizes what happened last Saturday night in Clemson, South Carolina.

What bothered me most about Virginia Tech’s downfall in the late Beamer era was something surprisingly small, but nonetheless meaningful.

I hated hearing television announcers hype the Hokie special teams units that had long since ceased to be special.

By the late 2000s, Tech had become pretty average on special teams. And they only faded from there. Gone were the days when the Hokies trotted out All Americans on the punt block team. In 2013, the Hokies played walk-ons in punt coverage against Alabama. That didn’t work out so well.

Christion Jones jogged(!) 70 yards to the house in the opening minutes of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff game.

My, how the mighty had fallen.

That feeling sprang to mind as I reviewed Clemson’s 2026 stats, both team and individual.

The Hokies are playing the Tigers in a Saturday night game at Death Valley. It feels like it should be a big game. However, on paper, these Tigers are no better than Georgia Tech or Cal.

At some positions, and in some aspects of the game, they are downright horrible.

If not for the jersey, and Dabo’s record of success through the 2024 season, this game would merit no more interest than Tech’s games from the past two weeks.

These Clemson Tigers are shockingly bad in two critical areas:

1. Outside of Jerome Carter (90.4 per PFF), the secondary cannot tackle. None of the four remaining starters have a tackling grade above 52, and two grade out below 40. Yikes! The front seven are not much better. Hokies tight end Luke Reynolds could have a massive game.

2. Quarterback Tait Reynolds carries an overall grade of 51.4, and he does not eclipse 55 in either rushing or passing. In only one game (72.7), against North Carolina, has he graded out above 60 overall. He has one big time throw all season, good for a 0.6% rate. Part of that is his average depth of throw, a mere 7.1 yards. Clemson does not trust him to throw the ball down the field. And yet, even with all the dink and dunk passes, Reynolds has still racked up a 3.8% rate of turnover-worthy plays. He has been sacked 17 times out of 72 pressures, good for a 23.6% rate. His 2.8 seconds of time-to-throw suggest that despite the short route concepts, he is not seeing the field well, and as a result he holds onto the ball.

While these particular areas stand out above all else, there are plenty of other favorable matchups for Virginia Tech to attack.

When the Hokies have the ball

Clemson has a solid, but not spectacular, defense. The Tigers smothered two non-power opponents (3.5 points per game), allowed an average of 15 points in wins over North Carolina and Cal, but surrendered an average of 46 points per game in losses to LSU and Miami.

Virginia Tech should land about in the middle of the last two groups.

The Hokies have scored an average of 28.6 points in five games (one in a monsoon) against power conference opponents, while Clemson has allowed 30.5 points in such games. Thus, a reasonable range of expectation for Virginia Tech is 27-31 points scored.

A few individual matchups stand out:

• Clemson is in the 72nd percentile in standard-down success, but only the 16th in passing-down success. As a result, the Hokies should do pretty well on third down plays.

• Clemson’s defensive front seven is not good against the run — they are roughly in the bottom third in both line yards per rush and stuff rate — and when you factor in the poor secondary tackling, one can easily imagine Jeffrey Overton having a big game.

• The Hokies have been pretty good at scoring touchdowns when they get the opportunity (74th percentile in points per opportunity), but Clemson’s defense is in the 93rd percentile in that same category, which means the Tigers are good at forcing field goal attempts.

Factoring in the road atmosphere at night, if Tech commits a bunch of penalties and fails to force turnovers, the offense could sputter a bit, resulting in more like 20 to 24 points scored. On the flip side, if the Hokies force a couple turnovers, which they should given Clemson’s woes at quarterback, Tech could easily notch somewhere around 35 points.

When the Hokies are on defense

Last week, Thomas Williams and Joshua Clarke shared snaps at one cornerback position, with each grading out in the mid-60s in coverage. On the other side, Jaquez White played every snap, grading out just above 50 in coverage.

In four (non-monsoon) games against P4 opponents, White has averaged 53.5 in coverage, which is 6.5 points below the baseline. His poor play has cost the Hokies time and again.

Williams, unfortunately, will miss this game with an injury he sustained last week. Given Cam Chadwick’s struggles as the fourth cornerback, Clarke and White will likely get the vast majority of the snaps. You can bet that, to the extent Tait Reynolds is capable, Chad Morris will try to test White, especially on routes involving a double move.

Beyond the cornerback rotation, I really cannot stress enough how atrocious Clemson’s offense has been in the first half of the season.

Out of 10 metrics, Virginia Tech’s defense gets the better of Clemson’s offense in 8. What is truly shocking is the margin of difference. The delta is a whopping 47 percentile points on average across the 10 metrics.

Virginia Tech’s defense is 72 percentile points better than Clemson’s offense on passing down success! It is 64 points better on standard down success. Will Clemson’s offense even cross the 50?

Assuming the offense does not give the ball away deep in its own end, there is no reason to believe that Clemson can score more than 21 points against the Hokies defense.

I’d put the over-under at 13.5.

Final thoughts

Along their offensive lines, both teams are weakest at the guard position. Look for Tom Allen and Brent Pry to attack the center of the opposing line with delayed blitzes and stunts.

To that end, I would not be surprised if a missed assignment up front leads to a free shot on either quarterback, resulting in an injury. Clemson has already elevated its second string quarterback to a starting role, although there are whispers that former starter Christopher Vizzina may be close to returning. According to Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris, Vizzina was a full go in practice this week.

A quick scan of each team’s PFF grades shows that Virginia Tech has played better football in every phase of the game by a wide margin this season.

Tech SHOULD win the game by double digits and make a statement on national television about the new pecking order in the ACC.

No, a win would not make the Hokies a tier 1 team in the conference. But it would put them in the conversation for mention in the second tier alongside Wake Forest.

And, realistically, Wake’s hold on that position is tenuous. The Hokies have an elite head coach, and he’s signed for the long-term. Wake, meanwhile, is seen as a stepping stone job.

All that said, there is no guarantee Virginia Tech will win the game. Death Valley is no joke, especially at night. And Clemson still has a solid advantage in team talent, even if that talent does not appear as well developed as it was in years past.

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Whispers about some of the defensive coaches have become audible.

In digging through the numbers and reading between the lines, a few things have become apparent.

1. Logan Howland is not healthy. He might not be injured (and hence, not listed on the injury report), but he is not close to 100% fully recovered from his offseason shoulder surgery. And he may not fully recover. Layth Ghannam is Tech’s fourth string left tackle (behind Johnny Garrett, Justin Terry, and Howland - all of whom are recovering from injuries). Likewise, Gavin Crawford is the fourth string right guard (behind Montavious Cunningham, Brody Meadows, and Michael Troutman, who has moved over to left guard, where he is third string behind Ghannam and Meadows). So long as the Hokies are starting a third stringer and two fourth stringers along the offensive line, they can lose to any team on their schedule.

2. The excessive number of penalties is understandable given how many guys are playing when they really are not ready (which causes them, and likely their teammates, to press). That includes experienced defensive players who recently transferred in or switched positions. They haven’t regressed. They just are not ready to play in their set positions at Virginia Tech right now. The old mandatory redshirt when players transferred helped hide the seriousness of the transition. Now, it’s often an all or nothing deal.

3. Nick Perry may or may not be a good coach, but the problem this year is the timing around his hire - namely, that he was hired too late (January 23, 2026). James Franklin apparently missed on his other targets to coach the corners. The delay made it hard to sign good players out of the transfer portal. There was some hype around Jaquez White and Cam Chadwick, but that was mostly homer-ism. Those guys were Bryce Watts-level recruits coming out of high school. Both had 247 transfer portal ratings in the mid-80s. At best, they are P4 rotational pieces. Now, add in White’s knee injury — which he is playing through, but clearly limits him — and it’s easy to see why they are not playing particularly well. Kenny Woseley was a high-three star player coming out of high school, but he is a young transfer who never played in Brent Pry’s system. Isaiah Brown-Murray is in his second season at Tech, but he switched from corner to nickel in the offseason. Joshua Clarke and Thomas Williams, who have both outperformed all the members of the former group, came to Tech out of high school and are playing the same position they have played for years. Continuity matters.

4. Brent Pry is in a similar position with his corners that Chris Marve was in with the linebackers in 2024. They blow coverages when he tries to call something complex, and they struggle physically when he calls more simple man-to-man coverages. The problem isn’t Pry. It’s past recruiting efforts (technically, some of that falls on Pry, but that was all in the previous poorly funded era of Virginia Tech football). The younger corners are more talented, but they’re not ready yet. All of this means that there is no quick fix for the coverage issues that have plagued the Hokie defense. At this point, it is what it is.

First half team grades

Three games into the season, the Hokies were on the verge of breaking into the top 25. At that point, an average of three different ranking indices put Tech #27 in the country.

The Hokies picked up a fourth win in the wind and driving rain at Boston College in their fourth game before regressing toward the mean against Pitt and Cal. The rankings have fallen off considerably, although they still align with a full season record of 7-5, which matches most people’s expectations for the team entering the season.

If we consider just SP+, it becomes more clear that the trouble lies primarily in the offense. Tech’s injury woes upfront have ground down the running game, which has added stress to the passing attack. The result is the offensive ranking has dropped from 22nd to 38th.

It has become much easier for opposing defenses to blitz because they have less fear that Tech’s running backs can break through the initial rush and go for a long gain — too often Jeffrey Overton and Marcellous Hawkins are having to evade a would-be tackler before they even reach the line of scrimmage.

Thoughts on the matchup with Georgia Tech

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: on paper, Virginia Tech is a much better football team than its opponent, and the Hokies should win the game by double digits.

At this point, just because the former statement is true (the Hokies are much better by the numbers), it does not mean fans will get the expected outcome.

Virginia Tech has the 27th best team talent, according to 247Sports. Georgia Tech is 34th. By rating, they are even closer.

Both teams are banged up along the offensive line, but the situation is getting worse by the week for the Hokies, while the Yellow Jackets appear on the verge of getting some guys back. If that gives an advantage to Georgia Tech, we could also say that it would merely negate the Hokies’ home field advantage. Thus, that leaves us with the following matchups when Virginia Tech has the ball:

For context, Pitt’s defense had a 19-point advantage and the Hokies put up 499 yards and 33 percentage points on the Panthers. Virginia Tech’s advantage over Cal was 17 points, but the Hokies only gained 390 yards while scoring 20 points. We will learn Saturday how much of the decline was due to injuries and how much can be blamed on having to play out west.

Two areas to watch closely when the Hokies have the ball are stuff rate (how often a run goes for little or no yardage) and passing down success. Georgia Tech has a small advantage in the first category, while Virginia Tech has a huge advantage in the second.

On defense, the Hokies have a significant advantage, although it is not as great as the one it had over Cal’s offense, and the results in Berkeley were decidedly mixed. The Hokies allowed the Golden Bears to gain 403 yards and score 25 points, although a lot of the damage came in the second half of the fourth quarter.

On many plays last week, Brent Pry kept one safety at least 15 yards off the line of scrimmage. Obviously, he’s sick of his unit allowing explosive plays due to miscues. Georgia Tech’s offense, despite its struggles, is in the 64th percentile of explosiveness, which is 46 points better than Virginia Tech’s defense. Like it or not, the high safety look is probably going to make an encore appearance.

Overall, the Hokies score nearly 11 points more per game than the Yellow Jackets while allowing 5 less.

As far as on-field play is concerned, Georgia Tech’s only real advantage is defensively in coverage. Everywhere else, the Hokies are essentially equal or better.

Run defense has been a strength for Virginia Tech all season, and it figures to be again against the Jackets, who could be without their top two running backs. The key to the game for the Hokies will be to shut down the Georgia Tech running game, then tee off on quarterback Alberto Mendoza.

Georgia Tech has been terrible at pass blocking. The Hokies hold a 26.7 point advantage in PFF grades in this category, and this despite their own offensive line looking pretty shaky the last couple weeks.

Overall, Virginia Tech has more paths to victory, but Georgia Tech is trending up after last week’s win over Duke, while the Hokies are trending down. At this point, Virginia Tech’s on-paper advantages aren’t worth much, but the team really should be 6-0, despite all the mistakes the last two weeks.

The Hokies may find a new and creative way to lose, but the law of averages is due to kick in. Virginia Tech is the better, more talented team. More times than not, such advantages are reflected in the final score.

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Word choice is everything.

Virginia Tech ended up outgaining Pitt by 200 yards, yet they managed — through a combination of turnovers, busted assignments, and questionable officiating — to lose in the most excruciating fashion possible.

How does the end result line up with my statement, and the entire crux of the article?

Quite well, as a matter of fact.

The Hokies were clearly the better football team. When asked after the game about John Love’s missed field goal as time expired, James Franklin stated that the Hokies had 20 plays more responsible for their defeat than the missed kick.

That’s an awful lot of plays that had to go in Pitt’s favor in order for the Panthers to squeak out a victory.

While it is true that Pitt lost starting quarterback Mason Heintschel to a season-ending knee injury in the third quarter, his backup, Holden Geriner, arguably played better in his two quarters of action.

Pitt’s 24.8% post-game win expectancy puts a nice bow on the topic. The Hokies should have won by 7 to 10 points, and perhaps even more, but they lost by two.

As the famous sports adage goes, “That’s why the play the games!”

No reason to expect a close game

Cal is a hot a mess. It’s personnel, both players and coaches, appears in flux, with injuries and performance-related demotions leaving many wondering just who exactly is going to participate in the game against the Hokies.

The cold hard truth is that it probably does not matter. The Hokies are a much better football team, and Cal does not have an advantage they can exploit anywhere on the field.

According to PFF, Cal does precisely one thing better than Virginia Tech: cover wide receivers.

But with an injured starting quarterback, the Bears are not in a position to challenge the Tech secondary. On the other side, Cal has injuries in its secondary, and Tech quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer is likely to have plenty of time to sit in the pocket and wait for a receiver to come open.

And with his 74% completion percentage, Grunkemeyer has demonstrated an ability to fit passes into tight spots.

That said, the Hokies have such a distinct advantage on the ground, that one can hardly imagine Grunkemeyer putting up yardage comparable to what he did against Pitt.

How the Hokies will attack on offense

At present, the only thing holding back the Virginia Tech offense is inconsistent run blocking. As the PFF team grades table above shows, Tech isn’t bad at run blocking. In fact, the Hokies do a much better job in run blocking than the Cal offensive line.

The problems are mostly due to youth and injuries. Neither will be completely solved this season, but improvement is certainly possible.

The good news is that Cal’s defensive line struggles to get penetration against the run.

While the bears grade out alright according to PFF, advanced stats reveal Cal’s struggles to win battles in the trenches and force stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.

In fact, the numbers tell the story of a bend and break defense. These Bears to do not stress offenses by playing in the backfield and they also allow a ton of explosive plays.

Yet, Cal’s defense is surprisingly good at limiting successful plays, especially on standard downs, so don’t expect the Hokies to just gash the Bears’ defense play after play. Rather, look for a combination of short fields and big plays to lead to Hokie points.

What to expect when Cal has the ball

Cal’s offense will be completely overmatched in this game. With injuries at quarterback and running back, things are even more bleak than the numbers suggest.

And the numbers tell a brutal story.

The Hokies have allowed a lot of explosive plays, mainly due to missed assignments in the secondary. Not surprisingly, that is an area where Cal will have an advantage.

But out of 10 advanced stats, that is the only area where Cal has an advantage.

Quite frankly, the disparity is so great in just about every metric, that it is difficult to imagine Cal doing much on offense.

The Hokies should completely own the line of scrimmage, forcing long second- and third-down situations.

Look for Brent Pry’s unit to (finally) generate some turnovers (plural). The expectation should be around three.

Surely, Cal will do a few things they have not shown on tape, and that may result in a scoring drive or two, but after that, the Hokies should strangle the life out of this offense.

Final thoughts

If I had told you before the season started that five games in the highest-graded player on Virginia Tech’s offense would be a lineman, would you have believed me?

Right tackle Aidan Lynch takes the honors, by less than a point over Ethan Grunkemeyer, whose overall grade (77.4) is lower than his conventional stat line would suggest.

Next to Lynch, Michael Troutman has logged over 150 snaps in place of Montavious Cunningham, who has battled injuries. Troutman’s overall grade (69.1) is nearly 12 points higher than Cunningham’s, so at this point, I would expect Troutman, as the younger player, to take over as the starter even when Cunningham is fully healthy.

What Tech really needs is a solution at left tackle, where Justin Terry and Logan Howland have both graded out around 60. For now, Terry is hurt, so either Howland will get the start, or Layth Ghannam will slide outside, with Brody Meadows or Tommy Ricard filling in at the vacated guard position.

Cal is not particularly strong along the defensive line, so look for Tech’s offensive line coach Matt Moore to focus on getting his best five both on the field and solidified at one position, so they can gel during the current stretch of games against weaker opponents.

The Hokies will need better offensive line play if they hope to go on the road at Clemson, SMU, and Miami and have a chance to win.

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Is it true?

Sorta.

Both teams are 4-0 overall, 1-0 in ACC play, and 2-0 against power conference opponents.

The two teams are tied for 15th in overall PFF grade at 94.1.

Neither team is ranked, but both are in the “others receiving votes” category, meaning the winner could springboard into the top 25.

Ok, so far so good. But what about on the field?

When Virginia Tech has the football

On paper, the two defenses have an advantage over the opposing offenses, but the Pitt defense’s edge over Tech’s offense is greater than that of the Hokie defense over the Panther offense.

In a direct comparison of 10 advanced metrics, Pitt has the edge in six, Virginia Tech in three, and there is one tie.

The advanced stats suggest that the Hokie offense could be in for a long night. Although Pitt’s defense does not create a ton of havoc, it does a great job of shutting down the run and getting opposing offenses behind the chains.

Pitt’s tradeoff comes as a result of its uber aggressive style. The Panthers give up a lot of explosive plays. One reason why is that Pat Narduzzi’s defense is good, but not great, at rushing the passer, so generating consistent pressure requires blitzing more often. Another reason is that the Panthers are not a very good tackling team, grading out at just 62.3 on the season, according to PFF.

Virginia Tech is only in the 40th percentile in offensive explosiveness, but Jeff Overton & Company should get opportunities to generate chunk plays, so long as they can stay focused and fight through what will surely be plenty of plays that go for little or no gain.

When Pitt has the football

Virginia Tech’s defense enjoys a similar advantage over Pitt’s offense, holding the same 6-3-1 advantage in the head-to-head comparison of advanced stats. Where Tech has an advantage, the disparity is often huge, but the overall advantage is not so great as to believe that the Tech defense can totally shut down the Pitt offense.

Both teams play a break-but-don’t-bend style of defense that can shut down offenses for long stretches, but then, seemingly out of the blue, allow a long scoring strike.

One other key difference is that Virginia Tech’s defense is in the 72nd percentile in Standard-Down Success Rate, while Pitt’s defense is in the 96th percentile. If the Panthers can consistently win first and second down, they stand a very good chance of winning the game.

Speaking of the game as a whole, what should the sporting public expect from this one?

The numbers give a very slight edge to Pitt which is likely negated by Tech’s home field advantage. So, perhaps this game is bound for overtime before it even kicks off?

Maybe, but maybe not.

Why all the overall stats in the world might not matter

The null hypothesis entering the game is that the two teams are very closely matched, ergo the game should be close on the scoreboard. The foregoing analysis produced nothing that would cause a reasonable analyst to reject the null hypothesis, but there is one key question that hasn’t been answered: Does Friday’s opponent resemble the whole of each team’s 2026 September schedule?

The answer is a clear no.

Half of the games each team has played have been against non-power conference teams. Padding stats in those games tells us nothing about the likely outcome of Friday’s game, but if we treat those games as being equal to the others, it could bias our expectations for this game.

Pitt’s two power conference opponents, Central Florida and Syracuse, are near analogs to Maryland and Boston College, which were wins number three and four for Virginia Tech.

Taking the average of PFF team grades from these four games paints a much different picture.

Virginia Tech has a clear edge on offense, with an overall grade 10.0 points higher than Pitt. The Hokies grade out higher in four out of the five offensive segments. Only in pass blocking have the Panthers slightly outperformed the Hokies.

On defense, Pitt has graded out 4.9 points higher, with moderate advantages in run defense and coverage. Virginia Tech is the superior tackling team (by a lot!) and the Hokies also feature a slightly better pass rush.

Pitt’s 5.0-point advantage on special teams draws them closer, but the Hokies still emerge with a 3.5-point advantage overall.

Something else to keep in mind is that both of Pitt’s games against power conference teams were at home, while the Hokies played both of theirs on the road. Not only will Friday’s game be played in Blacksburg, but it will also mark Pitt’s first road game in 2026.

For me, that is enough to reject the null hypothesis that these teams are equally matched. Virginia Tech is, at this point, the better team.

The Hokies are a 2.5-point favorite, which, if we assume a three point advantage for the home team, means Las Vegas thinks the Panthers would win a nail-biter on a neutral field. Maybe that’s why ESPN lists Pitt with a 57.8% win probability.

Those numbers are in line with what one would conclude after reviewing the overall comparison of the two teams. I just don’t think overall stats are as applicable as those against power conference opponents. Tech has played better in two games on the road against power conference opponents than Pitt has in two games at home.

And against Pitt, the Hokies will be playing in front of a raucous, Friday night crowd in Lane Stadium.

Add it all up, and the Hokies should win the game by 7 to 10 points.

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The polls have Tech outside the top 25, but firmly within the next group of teams vying to receive an official ranking. That status jives with the ratings I’ll be using to grade the team this year. The rankings by metric tell us that Tech has a great offense, alright defense, and good special teams, resulting in a fringe top 25 team.

In short, the Hokies have performed as advertised, at least from a 30 thousand-foot view. Dig a bit deeper, though, and the real strengths and weaknesses of the team are revealed.

Offense

Virginia Tech’s PFF grade range on offense is quite narrow. At the extremes, the Hokies have an 83 in passing and a 70 in pass blocking. They excel in passing EPA/play (0.509), passing down success rate (44.4%), and defensive back havoc allowed (1.3%).

The struggles have come on the ground. That might surprise some people after last year’s 3-9 team produced some fairly gaudy rushing stats. One thing to keep in mind is that after the first few games, Philip Montgomery reverted back to using Kyron Drones as a battering ram, which gave the Hokies a man-advantage in the run game. It was as though the Hokies were on one endless power play.

This year, without the numbers advantage, the still-developing offensive line has had to do more work to open holes. The struggles on deep passes haven’t helped.

The two offensive metrics that stand out most in the negative column are rushing explosiveness (0.958) and open-field yards/rush (0.89). Tech’s quick passing game has helped it successfully sustain drives, but an average depth of target of only 6.4 yards does little to move linebackers and safeties back from the line of scrimmage.

Defense

For opposing offenses, it has been feast or famine against the Hokie defense. The outlier range (39.9) is three times greater than for the offense, meaning that Brent Pry’s unit is elite in some aspects, and at certain positions, but below average, at least so far, in others.

Tech has succeeded so far in shutting down the run, outside of one long run by ODU quarterback Quinn Henicle. The team’s PFF grade, 95.0 reflects what fans have seen with their own eyes.

On the other side, Tech’s coverage grade of 54.1 reflects a level of performance through three games that can only be called disappointing. Kaleb Spencer (92.8), Thomas Williams (72.8), and Joshua Clarke (70.4), have all defended the pass well, but Quentin Reddish (43.6), Jaquez White (53.5), and Isaiah Brown-Murray (58.2) have struggled.

Tech has been able to shut down the run thanks to dominant play in the trenches. The Hokies are allowing 0.31 line yards/rush, and they are stuffing the opponent on 45.2% of rushes. The front seven havoc rate (24.4%) is nearly eight times that of the defensive backs (3.5%).

The success rate allowed by play type tells the whole story:

• On passing plays: 50.6%

• On rushing plays: 21.3%

The game at Boston College

Games at Boston College tend to be sleepy affairs, but there is nothing cozy about a Nor’easter. Today’s menu features both rain and wind, with gusts likely to top 40 mph.

Still, the forecast is not calling for apocalyptic weather. Rather, it’s just going to be chilly and nasty. Regarding football, the weather will be bad enough to impact the game’s final outcome, but not the entire game plan. Tech is still likely to do what it wants in this game, meaning a healthy dose of Ethan Grunkemayer and the short-to-medium range passing game.

On paper, Virginia Tech has a definite advantage:

When Boston College has the ball

There is no reason to believe that the Eagles will be able to move the ball consistently against the Virginia Tech defense. BC’s offensive EPA/play (-0.038) almost exactly matches what the Hokies allow (-0.037). The weather might conspire to net BC an explosive play or two, but expect the Hokies to drive down BC’s already sub-40% success rate.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

The Hokies may be down their starting left tackle (Justin Terry) and right guard (Montavious Cunningham), but they are the two lowest graders among Tech’s starting five up front. If backups Logan Howland and Brody Meadows can themselves stay healthy, the drop-off in play should not be significant.

A bigger loss would be if Ayden Greene can’t go at wide receiver. Playing young receivers in bad weather is practically asking for an ill-fated turnover, or two. And I’m not just talking about the usual run-the-wrong-route sort of deal. I’m thinking more along the lines of tipped pass interception and fumble after the catch. James Franklin and Fontel Mines weren’t born yesterday. Expect to see a healthy dose of Marlion Jackson and Que’Sean Brown out wide, while Grunk continues to target his tight ends, especially Luke Reynolds, whenever he really needs to make a play.

There has been a lot of speculation in the days leading up to the game that Tech would lean more heavily on the run because of the weather. Perhaps, but if the o-line struggled to get a push in good weather, there is no reason to think that putting those guys on slick field turf will improve their fortunes. If the Hokies are able to do damage on the ground, it will likely be thanks, at least in part, to scheme. The coaches know what they have now, and just like last year’s team, expect some subtle shifts that enable the team to better play to its strengths on offense.

Data sourced from collegefootballdata.com and pff.com. Dashboard visuals are from collegefootballdata.com.

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If you hadn’t seen this story year-after-year for decades, you might look at this Maryland team and feel pretty nervous about Saturday’s game.

If, like me, you are well aware of Maryland’s exemplary record against the Little Sisters of the Poor and various local, directional schools, it is exceedingly difficult to take this week’s game seriously.

Are the Terps a legit Big Ten program, capable of not only beating the Hokies, but doing so comfortably, or are they a team whose relationship with its conference is more about guaranteeing nine “buy” games each season?

And what about the Hokies? Last week’s performance was a mixed bag against a lower-level opponent. There is also that pesky little record — read: no wins — against non-ACC power conference opponents dating back to the opening game of the 2017 season.

Getting a handle on this game is tough, as we will be asking a lot from just a few metrics.

What a major outlier tells us

Both teams enter Saturday’s game with equal 2-0 records against opponents who had no business sticking within three touchdowns of them. In such a situation, raw stats as well as PFF grades are supposed to be inflated.

In a matchup between two teams with inflated numbers, an outright bad number becomes newsworthy. The most noteworthy outlier for either team is Maryland’s inability to tackle. The Terps graded out below 65 in both games this season, and were under 60 last week at rebuilding UConn.

Taken as a whole, Maryland’s inability to bring ball carriers to the ground would seem to point the way for Ty Howle and the Hokie offense. Expect a health dose of Marcellous Hawkins on the ground to soften up a Terrapin defense that is a bit undersized at some positions.

For example, half of Maryland’s two-deep at defensive end weigh less than 250 pounds. Can they hold up over four quarters if they struggle to tackle ball carriers? If the Hokies win the time of possession battle, there is a high likelihood that it will be the result of drives getting extended by players who refuse to go down.

Predictability in the passing game

Defenses tend to struggle when they don’t know where the ball is going. Sign stealing is one answer, but few teams manage to pull it off successfully.

The defensive coordinator’s job is made much easier if there are clear tendencies from an opponents’ charted plays.

Consider the passing distribution between Maryland’s Malik Washington and Virginia Tech’s Ethan Grunkemeyer.

Washington, so far this season, has demonstrated a clear preference to throw the ball in the middle third of the field.

At every level, Washington has thrown to the center of the field more than to the left and right combined.

Expect the Hokies to be dialed-in to this tendency, especially on screen passes and throws between 0 and 20 yards. On “gotta have it plays”, expect him to try to pick on Tech’s linebackers. The Hokies have not had to defend against a competent passing attack yet this season, and at times they showed holes against Old Dominion.

For the Hokies, Ethan Grunkemeyer shows the same preference for throwing to the middle of the field on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Beyond 10 yards, though, he is as likely to throw to either side as he is to attempt a pass down the middle.

For Grunk, the key will be completing those deeper passes to the outside.

In addition, Hokie fans have noted the offense’s inability to hit on wide open deep shots. The Terrapin coaches have surely noted this fact too, so don’t be surprised if they crowd the line of scrimmage and dare the Hokies to beat them deep.

Final thoughts

This game is tough to get a read on. Most grades and statistics for both teams are cartoonishly high.

The Hokies showed some weaknesses up front last week against ODU, but Maryland’s defensive scheme is so different from what ODU ran that it is unclear whether the Terps will be able to take advantage of Tech’s youth and inexperience.

Meanwhile, Maryland clearly struggles with tackling on defense, and the offense appears easy to game plan against.

Malik Washington is a talented player, but one wonders if sees plays develop near the sideline as well as he does in the middle of the field. If the Hokies can crowd the center third and disguise their coverages, there is every reason to believe that they could pick off a pass or two.

Takeaways in the passing game and a dominant rushing attack are the keys to victory for Virginia Tech. In contrast, sacks on first and second down combined with the danger of a mobile opposition quarterback will be critical if Maryland hopes to make this a four-quarter contest.

Both teams are undefeated against lower-level patsies. This game is being portrayed as each team’s first true test, but if recent records are any indication, the loser is more likely than not to be revealed as a P4 patsy.

If you had to label one of these teams as being set up to take a fall, which would you choose? That answer alone is worth more than all the early season powder puff stats, combined.

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However, before we look forward to two teams seemingly moving in opposite directions, let’s look backward and tease out what can be learned from last week’s scrimmage, -er game, against VMI.

Looking back

Let’s start with the five metrics that before the game I noted would tell us a lot about the 2026 Hokies:

1) Offensive time-to-throw

Overall, Ethan Grunkemeyer’s time-to-throw was 2.32 seconds, while Bryce Baker’s was 1.93. Those numbers were solely a product of scheme and play selection. VMI generated nothing in the way of push up front. The ball won’t always come out this quickly, but it is clearly going to come out a lot quicker than it did last year. As a result, the number of drive-killing sacks should decline appreciably.

2) Count of (non-injury influenced) offensive line snaps by non-starters when Ethan Grunkemeyer is under center

While I am not aware of official stats for this metric, I did note via the television broadcast some degree of rotation along the offensive line in the first half. Overall, the starters played between 38 and 43 snaps. Logan Howland and Brody Meadows only played 17 and 16 snaps, respectively, but other second and third stringers got extended playing time:

• Tommy Ricard - 39 snaps

• Gavin Crawford and Buddy Wegdam - 24 snaps

• Lucas Austin - 21 snaps

This group played well, for the most part. Lucas Austin was the only one of the four to grade out below the baseline of 60. The other three were all above 70.

3) Offensive downfield shots taken (and converted)

True to expectations, the Hokies threw a lot of short passes. Grunkemeyer had two passing attempts greater than 20 yards, but missed an open Que’sean Brown both times. Baker connected on his only attempt, a 40-yard touchdown pass to Keylen Adams.

4) Offensive line yards allowed by the defense

Before the game I set the cut-off line at 1.5 offensive line yards allowed. As expected (honestly, hoped), the Hokies shut down the Keydets rushing attack by dominating at the line of scrimmage. Virginia Tech allowed only 0.6 line yards per rush. Here is a full breakdown of the rushing advanced stats for both teams:

Not much to quibble with there.

5) Count of (non-injury influenced) back-up linebacker snaps in the first half

No Virginia Tech defender played more than 27 snaps, and Brent Pry began rotating players almost immediately. That included the linebackers. There was, however, a sharp drop-off in performance after the top four players:

• MLB 1: Noah Chambers - 88.0 (19 snaps)

• WLB 1: Keon Wylie - 78.1 (15 snaps)

• SLB 1: Kaleb Spencer - 81.3 (22 snaps)

  ---

• Mike 2: George Ballance - 89.5 (23 snaps)

• WLB 2: Curtis Jones Jr. - 56.2 (27 snaps)

• SLB 2: Sherrod Covil - 62.3 (26 snaps)

  ---

• MLB 3: Mathieu Lamah - 84.6 (14 snaps)

• WLB 3: Terry Wiggins - 57.6 (14 snaps)

• SLB 3: Antwone Santiago - 70.5 (13 snaps)

Notice how two of the biggest question marks — Curtis Jones Jr. and Sherrod Covil — got the most snaps. That was not by accident. The staff clearly wanted to get a good evaluation on them. Unfortunately, the results were pretty pedestrian. Those guys will still see the field plenty this season, but hopefully they log only true second string snaps. Tech would be in trouble if either player were forced into a starting role (e.g., due to an injury at the top of the depth chart).

Looking ahead

The Hokies were a little better last week in just about every proxy measure than anticipated before the game. They dominated both lines of scrimmage, played a ton of guys, and the passing game was crisp, regardless of who was under center (or in the shotgun).

The depth questions at linebacker are real, and unresolved. When the game is on the line, expect to see primarily a four-man rotation, with George Ballance being the only second stringer who has thus far earned significant snaps.

On the offensive line, keep an eye on the battle at guard. Layth Ghannam blocked well (81.5 pass blocking, 71.3 run blocking), but committed two penalties, which resulted in him grading out the lowest among the five starters (67.9 overall).

This week, if Ghannam commits an early penalty or two, look for Gavin Crawford to get more snaps. Against VMI, Crawford played 24 snaps and earned an 81.5 overall grade. He was equally strong in blocking for the run and the pass.

If Brody Meadows can stay healthy, the Hokies might be a legit two deep at guard. Tommy Ricard’s solid performance (73.8 overall) suggests the same might be true at center.

The Hokies are not as deep at tackle, but starters Aidan Lynch (93.2) and Justin Terry (78.4) graded out very well in terms of their overall play.

Talent in, talent out

We’re still about two weeks from having enough data to draw some serious conclusions about the 2026 Hokies and their opponents. Absent sufficiently powered PFF grades, there are a few other metrics that provide clues about how the game against Old Dominion is likely to play out on Saturday afternoon.

Since the series with ODU began in 2017, the Hokies have been trending down, while the Monarchs have been trending up. This SP+ graph tells the story:

Has Virginia Tech already bottomed out? Did ODU peak last year? Possibly yes and yes.

Old Dominion got hit hard by the transfer portal. Out of the 10 highest rated players in the transfer portal linked to ODU this past offseason, 8 left the program and 2 entered.

Meanwhile, the situation in Blacksburg was the polar opposite. All 10 of the highest rated transfer portal players linked to Virginia Tech transferred in. The highest rated departure, linebacker Michael Short, left the program four games into the 2025 campaign and transferred to TCU in the offseason. He earned a 0.86 rating from 247Sports.

Traditional recruiting rankings tell a parallel story. The Hokies brought in the 34th best class in 2026 according to 247Sports, while ODU’s class ranked 95th.

Even that ranking hides the extent of the disparity between the schools’ recruiting hauls. Virginia Tech’s average player rating was 87.91 (high 3-star), while ODU’s was 82.97 (high 2-slow to 3-star territory).

Overall, the Hokies are much better this year than they were in 2025, while Old Dominion is much worse. Does it all add up to the three touchdown swing from a year ago that the Hokies will need to achieve to win the game?

Most likely, yes.

And comfortably.

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There are so many other factors that drove those decisions when Head Coach James Franklin and Howle were at Penn St., things that most people do not even consider, such as:

• Relative athleticism of Big Ten linebackers

• Ability of Big Ten programs to recruit top flight talent at cornerback

• Weather conditions

• Strengths and Weaknesses of Penn St. quarterbacks

• Availability of blue chip pocket passers in the mid-Atlantic region

• Fan expectations and the Overton window for what kind of offense can be run in Happy Valley

• Comparative strengths and weaknesses of the Penn St. offensive line

This is not to say that semi-informed prognostications made in the May-June dead period do not have their place. The professionals need to generate content and the fans crave any morsel they can get.

But in the niche of a niche where Hokie Analytics lives, I have long operated under the data-driven maxim of only going so far as I felt the numbers could support.

And in the time period between when the Hokies hired Franklin and the end of training camp, that is not very far.

Now that the Hokies are set to take on their week 1 opponent, Virginia Military Institute (VMI), it would seem a salient time to discuss the metrics that, in what should be a blowout win for the home team, are most likely to reveal just how good (or not) the Hokies will be in 2026.

Week 1 metrics that matter

By the end of the first quarter, the final result of the game against VMI should no longer be in doubt. That does not mean there will not be a lot to watch for during the rest of the game. Here are the five metrics that I think will give us the best early indication of just how good Franklin’s first team in Blacksburg will be.

1) Offensive time-to-throw

Pro Football Focus’s time-to-throw (TTT) metric is always informative, but seldom authoritative. The biggest caveat is that it offers no comment on why the quarterback released the ball when he did. It could be because the play called for a quick pass, the defense blitzed, there was a blown coverage, an overmatched lineman got beaten, the defense played a soft Cover 4, etc.

Against the Keydets, who will be physically overmatched, TTT will give us a sense of the Hokies’ offensive strategy, which should offer clues about the offense’s comparative strengths. For example, lots of quick hitters would indicate that the offensive line still has a long way to go. Similarly, a lot of short drops with a longish TTT could indicate that some combination of scheme and ability is leading to Hokie receivers struggling to gain separation.

2) Count of (non-injury influenced) offensive line snaps by non-starters when Ethan Grunkemeyer is under center

If Matt Moore really believes he has depth along the offensive line, he’ll play some second string guys when Grunk is quarterback. If it’s all starters for the first half, we can safely conclude that the line is still another year (or two) away.

3) Offensive downfield shots taken (and converted)

This metric brings together many moving pieces - pass protection, route running, acceleration and top-end speed, quarterback accuracy and arm strength, and overall offensive scheme. The Hokies will probably run the ball a lot on Saturday, which should result in some wide-open opportunities on play action passes. Even if the Hokies run the expected vanilla scheme, there will probably be one or two deep shots off play action. What will be more telling, though, are the deep pass attempts off straight drop-backs.

4) Offensive line yards allowed by the defense

The result here should be essentially nil versus VMI. Anything over 1.5 yards is cause for concern. And I’m not just talking about from the starters. The average for the entire game should be under 1.5 offensive line yards allowed. If the third-stringers get pushed around late and the average drifts upward, that will tell us that the depth is not there yet. In that case, it will fall to Brent Pry and the defensive coaches to develop the second- and third-string guys during September, before the schedule gets tough.

5) Count of (non-injury influenced) back-up linebacker snaps in the first half

This is the same deal as the offensive line - a position with mostly established starters, but depth questions. There is no reason for the starters to play a lot of snaps against VMI. In fact, the second stringers should log more snaps than the starters. In particular, I want to see Sherrod Covil play meaningful snaps in the first half. He’s switching positions, is a bit undersized for a linebacker, and would generally be someone you hope you don’t have to play. If Pry isn’t confident enough to get him some action in the first half, then the Hokies could be one Kaleb Spenser twisted ankle away from disaster.

Team talent

Twelve of the ACC’s seventeen teams are ranked in the top 50 schools nationwide in the 2026 composite team talent metric. Among those teams, Virginia Tech is fourth (27th overall).

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that Virginia Tech’s most talented players - in terms of original high school ratings, which comprise this metric - are also among its youngest. Put another way, Tech’s starters are numerically less talented than its backups.

Of course, high school ratings are not everything. Development matters. See: Marcellous Hawkins and Kemari Copeland.

Still, when looking at the team as a whole, that pesky fact matters, especially with the glut of teams whose talent rating nearly matches Tech’s:

• 28th - UNC

• 31st - SMU

• 32nd - NC State

• 33rd - Cal

• 34th - Georgia Tech

• 35th - Syracuse

Among the teams on that list, the Hokies play at Cal and SMU, and get Georgia Tech at home.

Tech also plays two ACC teams with higher talent ratings - Miami (12th) and Clemson (16th).

Overall, six out of Virginia Tech’s nine ACC opponents (Stanford sneaks in at 50th) are in the top 50 on Team Talent. Notable among the three that are not is Virginia, which checks in at 53rd, and Pitt, which is 64th.

Here is what all of this means from an expected results perspective:

• Expected record against teams with more talent (0-2)

  • The Hokies travel to both Miami, a likely but not certain loss, and Clemson. The Tigers are trending down and have questions at quarterback, but their schedule sets up nicely in the weeks leading up to their tilt with the Hokies.

• Expected record against teams with similar talent (1-2)

  • Georgia Tech, which lost at home to Colorado 14-13 on Thursday night, is a very winnable game at Lane Stadium. Cal and SMU are both road games, and therefore will be uphill battles

• Expected record against teams with less talent (2-0)

  • UVA looked good in dismantling NC State last week, but quarterback remains a question, and it has been decades since the Cavaliers beat the Hokies twice in a row. Pitt comes to Lane Stadium on a Friday night, which gives Tech a distinct advantage.

• Expected record against teams lacking P4 talent (1-0)

  • Boston College will have home field advantage, so the game may be closer than Hokie fans would prefer, but Tech should nonetheless prevail.

• Expected record against non-conference opponents (3-0)

  • Maryland, ranked 46th in team talent, can and should put up a fight, but James Franklin has a history with the Terrapins, and the Hokies should be very locked in for that game.

Based on team talent, and factoring in where the games are played, fans can reasonably expect the Hokies to finish 8-4 overall, and 5-4 in the ACC. The likelihood of going 7-5 is greater than 9-3. In fact, 9-3 is nearly as likely as 6-6. And if Ethan Grunkemeyer were to get hurt, the Hokies could easily fail to win half their games.

If Tech wins 7 or 8 regular season games, the fanbase should be pretty happy. But just to show how far James Franklin and his staff will still have to go to compete on the national stage, the difference between the most talented team, the Georgia Bulldogs, and the Hokies is 334.55 rating points. That is more than three times the 109.89 rating points that separate Virginia Tech and Boston College, the least talented team in the ACC.

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The reason is simple. Since others own the hot take space, I chose to sit back and observe.

Like everyone else, I want to know what is going on in college football and how it is all going to impact Virginia Tech. How do the Hokies win in this environment? And not just for a season or two. What can the past teach us about how to sustain success long into the future?

To answer these questions I went back and looked at the four teams everyone had pegged as the best in the ACC when the conference expanded in 2004. Not coincidentally, they are the only four schools that have sustained excellence over an entire generation in my lifetime (since 1984).

Part of the utility of such an analysis is comparing teams across years. In order to do that, I settled on the simplest complex metric in existence today. Simple Rating System (SRS) “combines scoring margin and strength of schedule to rate teams. The rating indicates expected margin vs. an average team, adjusting for home field advantage.”

In an attempt to keep the analysis clean, I defined a generation as 17 seasons. In every case except Clemson, those 17 seasons played out over 16 years (the Tigers needed an extra year because SRS data is not available for the Covid season in 2020).

Here is a rundown of the four programs and how they stack up over the best 17-season period in their respective modern histories.

4) Virginia Tech (1994-2010)

• Best Season: 1999, 11-1, National Championship appearance, 24.5 and #3 in SRS

• Historically Elite Seasons (30+ rating): 0

• Peak (Best 5 in a row) Seasons: 1998-2002, 1 top-5 and 4 top-10 SRS

• Average SRS: 15.5

• Median Season: 1995, 10-2, Sugar Bowl Champions, 15.8 and #12 in SRS

What felt like a period of sustained, extended excellence for Virginia Tech could more accurately be described as a period of peaks and valleys during which the floor was high and, in peak years, the ceiling put the Hokies among the nation’s best teams.

A few things stand out with the Hokies during Beamer’s golden era.

First, and befitting a program in which development was paramount, the Hokies tended to build over several seasons toward truly exceptional teams. Only in 1999 and 2000 did the Hokies play at a level commensurate with those competing for a National Championship.

Second, Beamer really did have the Hokies consistently among the top-10 teams in the country. However, they were only a top-5 team in three out of the 17 years.

Even in top-5 years, the Hokies were not truly elite. The Hokies never had an SRS rating above 25, whereas the three other teams on this list all had at least one season with a rating over 30.

Still, consistent excellence was the name of the game. The median season, which was the ninth best, was the 1995 Sugar Bowl championship team.

3) Clemson (2007-2024)

• Best Season: 2018, 15-0, National Champions, 32.7 and #2 SRS

• Historically Elite Seasons (30+ rating): 1

• Peak (Best 5 in a row) Seasons: 2015-2019, 5 top-5 SRS, 2 NCs

• Average SRS: 16.7

• Median Season: 2007, 8-4, Chik-Fil-A Bowl appearance, 14.6 and #14 SRS

Without Clemson’s run of greatness in the second half of the 2010s, the Tigers would not have made this list. But oh that five-year run (arguably six, but there are no data for 2020).

Clemson finished in the top-5 every year from 2015-2019, and the Tigers won two National Championships in the process.

The best season, the undefeated National Championship run in 2018, put the Tigers in the conversation for the best team of the millennium, if not all of college football history. However, even in that amazing year, Clemson still finished with the second best SRS rating. Alabama, the team Clemson destroyed in the National Championship game, still finished the year with a higher rating.

Outside of those five years, Clemson was somewhere between good and very good. The median season, the 2007 team that went 8-3 in the regular season before losing in the Chik-Fil-A bowl. Even though the 2007 team finished #14 in SRS rankings that season, compared to #12 for the Hokies in 1995, there was a big difference between capping the year off with a major win and ending with a loss in an upper-middle tier bowl.

2) Miami (1986-2002)

• Best Season: 2001, 12-0, National Champions, 32.4 and #1 SRS

• Historically Elite Seasons (30+ rating): 1

• Peak (Best 5 in a row) Seasons: 1987-1991, 5 top-5 and 2 best SRS, 3 NCs

• Average SRS: 21.1

• Median Season: 2002, 12-1, NC appearance, 24.4 and #3 SRS

Miami is one of very few programs in the country capable of fielding a team that merits mention among the all-time best.

The 2001 Hurricanes would probably win a vote for team of the decade. The only other contenders would be 2000 Oklahoma, 2004 USC, 2005 Texas, and 2009 Alabama.

The Hokies barely lost to the Hurricanes in 2001 (oh, Ernest Wilford…) and hung with 2004 USC and 2009 Alabama into the fourth quarter.

For my money, that Canes team belongs in the same conversation that includes 2019 LSU among the all-time best college football teams. Sports Illustrated agrees, as the venerable media organization placed the 2001 Hurricanes atop a list of the top 25 teams of the last 25 years. As SI summarized:

The term “loaded” has never applied more accurately to a team than these Hurricanes. Thirty-eight players on the ’01 Canes were drafted by the NFL. They led the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 9.4 points per game, and in takeaways (45). Only one of their 12 wins [Virginia Tech!] was by single digits, and they beat five ranked opponents by an average of 32.8 points. They were so good, rookie head coach Larry Coker just had to keep from screwing it up.

The problem with Miami has never been the heights the team could reach. Rather, the issue has been consistency.

Two factors, above all else, have conspired to make Miami a wildly unpredictable program: cheating (especially paying players long before it was legal) and the coaching carousel.

If you run a Google search for Miami football sanctions hoping to learn about what happened in the mid-1990s, you will find that more refined search criteria are required because of the sanctions following the Nevin Shapiro scandal in 2011.

If Miami could ever get its act together for an extended period of time, the program could become a real juggernaut. But then, Miami would not be Miami without all the semi-legal swagger.

1) Florida St. (1987-2003)

• Best Season: 1987, 11-1, Fiesta Bowl Champions, 30.5 and #1 SRS

• Historically Elite Seasons (30+ rating): 3

• Peak (Best 5 in a row) Seasons: 1996-2000, 5 top-5 and 3 #1 SRS, 1 NC

• Average: 25.0

• Median: 1992, 11-1, Orange Bowl Champions, 24.9 and #1 SRS

In the 1990s, a top-5 finish must have felt like a birth right for Florida St. fans. In the modern era, only Nick Saban’s Alabama teams are comparable. Not until 2001 was there finally a drop off in FSU’s level of play.

During their run of greatness, the Seminoles’ average team was better than the 1999 Hokies. However, the only time during this run that FSU produced an undefeated national champion was in 1999 - the Chris Weinke/Peter Warrick team that came back to win the Sugar Bowl over the Michael Vick-led Hokies.

The one annual slip-up almost came to be expected, but beating the ‘Noles always required the opponent to be either great themselves (think Steve Spurrier’s Florida teams) or really good and play the game of their collective life (think 1995 Virginia).

In many ways, Bowden and Beamer followed the same formula. Florida St. pushed the boundaries a bit more with regard to NCAA rules, but the general blueprint was the same, especially when it came to staff stability.

The run of greatness ended following the 2000 season. After FSU’s 13-2 loss to Oklahoma in the National Championship game, Mark Richt left to become Georgia’s head coach. He was succeeded by Bobby Bowden’s son, Jeff, who proved to be a major downgrade.

In addition, in 2001, the Seminoles started redshirt-freshman Chris Rix who was not ready to play at a championship level. Those two factors were the primary drivers of the decline in the team’s on-field performance.

Final thoughts

Three of the teams featured in this article - Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Florida St. - were led by current or future Hall of Fame coaches. Miami had a coaching carousel, but the Hurricanes were at their best under Jimmy Johnson and Dennis Erickson, both Hall of Famers.

This commonality is important for understanding the critical drivers to sustained success in college football - it all starts with great coaching.

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But on gameday morning, have I indeed lived to see that day?

It’s debatable.

Virginia is a good team with no obvious holes on the roster. Virginia Tech is a misaligned, broken team with a few very good pieces, but also some glaring holes.

Still, the question remains, are the Wahoos really that much better than the Hokies?

In the age of mega-conferences and unbalanced schedules, it’s not such an easy question to answer.

In an attempt to bring some quantitative rigor to bear, I modified the college basketball quadrant system, adapting it for college football.

In basketball, there is no FCS. All 350+ teams in Division 1 are grouped together.

Since there are less than 140 FBS teams, the ranking windows for the quadrants had to be compressed.

And speaking of rankings, there is no NET for college football, so I used SP+, which is the closest advanced metric.

Here is where I drew the lines for the quadrants:

The Hokies did not play the world’s toughest schedule in 2025, but their opponents ended up having much better seasons than many would have guessed back in August.

UVA will be Tech’s ninth bowl bound opponent. If Florida St. beats Florida, the Seminoles will become the tenth bowl eligible opponent.

Only South Carolina and FCS Wofford will join the Hokies in staying home for the holidays.

Tech’s average opponent this year has a 7-4 record and is ranked #43 in SP+.

Overall, the Hokies have played a lot of good to very good teams. Outside of Wofford, there were no games that any team, much less this Virginia Tech team, could just sleepwalk through and expect to win.

Virginia’s schedule is another story altogether.

The Cavaliers have played six bowl eligible teams, four of which are 6-5. Two other teams, Florida St. and Washington St., are 5-6 and could punch their ticket to a minor bowl with a win on Saturday.

The average UVA opponent is 6-5 and ranked 71st in SP+.

Here is a comparison of the two teams’ resumes:

If the Hokies had played the Cavaliers’ schedule - replace Virginia Tech’s Quad 1 game and two Quad 2 games with Quad 4 games - it is very likely that they would be at least 6-5. Brent Pry would likely still be Hokies’ coach.

Don’t believe me? Let’s review the first four games on UVA’s schedule

1. vs. Coastal Caroline (6-5, #112 in SP+)

2. at NC State (6-5, #66)

3. vs. William & Mary (FCS)

4. vs. Stanford (4-7, #107)

Against that schedule, the Hokies would have likely entered the week 5 matchup against Florida St. with a 4-0 record. And the Wahoos got the Seminoles at home.

Brent Pry would not have been fired, so opt outs wouldn’t have hurt the team’s depth.

Under that hypothetical, there is little chance the Hokies would have been forced to start two true freshmen against UVA.

But the schedule is what it is, and it has played out very well for UVA. The Hoos even had an extra week to prepare for the Hokies.

And that could be decisive, because in ELO terms, the Hokies (1409 ELO) look more like a marginal 5-7 team than one about to finish 3-9, while UVA (1604 ELO) is closer to 7-5 than 10-2.

When Virginia Tech is on offense

The Hokies need to finish promising drives with touchdowns, period.

Since Tech has gone all in on the run game, the offense has moved the ball alright between the twenties, but everything bogs down in the redzone.

Kyron Drones can give the Hokies a man advantage in the run game, but the wide receivers, three of whom are on the field for almost every play, are practically invisible.

And has anyone else noticed Benji Gosnell’s disappearing act this year? After catching 32 passes for 341 yards last year, Gosnell has just 12 receptions for 86 yards this year.

At 6’5”. 254 lbs., he would seem as good a target as the Hokies have in the redzone. With Ayden Greene questionable due to injury, perhaps Gosnell gets a few more targets today than has been the norm of late.

Those targets might come by default. The Hokies are so thin at receiver that Greene’s health might force Philip Montgomery to run more plays out of two-tight end formations.

UVA’s rush defense is ok, but the team really excels against the pass. As teams have done of late, it seems likely the Cavaliers will aim to shut down the pass, get a lead, then force the Hokies to try to throw the ball in order to come back.

Statistically speaking, the two biggest concerns are field position (UVA’s opponents start each drive, on average, at the 26-yard line) and staying ahead of the sticks (the Hoos allow a success rate under 38%).

Overall, there is no reason to think the Hokies will score more than 20 points at Scott Stadium.

When Virginia Tech is on defense

Virginia is pretty pedestrian on offense. Their EPA numbers are indicative of a team with higher explosiveness and success numbers than the Cavaliers have achieved on the field, so there is a bit of a disconnect, perhaps due to biased sampling (see: schedule = easy).

Virginia Tech’s opponents have been able to nickel-and-dime the defense, methodically driving the length of the field without the aid of a big play. In theory, Virginia could do this too, but that success rate, which at 42.5% unadjusted is actually lower than Virginia Tech’s, suggests that consistency could be an issue.

Translation: bend-but-don’t-break might be a more successful defensive philosophy this week for the Hokies than it was against FSU and Miami.

Winning the game will require a Herculean effort by the defensive line and no stupid late hit penalties (I’m looking at you, Ben Bell).

Tech’s back-seven is at a moderate disadvantage in terms of skill, track record, and experience. The scheme will be vanilla because that is all the freshmen can handle. Tackles will be missed, gap fills will be late, and receivers will get lost in zone coverage.

If the big boys can win in the trenches, it will largely negate all these disadvantages. However, if PFF is any indication, the Wahoo’s have as strong an offensive line as Tech does a defensive line.

Final thoughts

Speaking of PFF and holes in the line-up, consider the number of players on each side of the ball who have played more than 150 snaps and graded out lower than 60 (the PFF baseline):

• Offense

  • Virginia Tech - 8 (5 of who are linemen)

  • Virginia - 3

• Defense

  • Virginia Tech 3 (Jojo Crim just misses the cut at 149 snaps)

  • Virginia - 0

If ever there was a telling stat, it’s that count above: 11 total players for Virginia Tech have played 150+ snaps and graded out below 60. Virginia only has three such players.

Philip Montgomery will have the Hokies ready to play, and they will indeed play very hard.

However, Virginia is a better team with better players, playing at home at night, and with an extra week to prepare.

The deck is rather stacked against the Hokies, even if the Wahoos aren’t really as good as their record suggests.

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Kyron Drones did not come to Virginia Tech to go 3-9 and cash checks. If that were the case, he would not play half as hard as he does.

No, the guys getting set to run out of the tunnel one last time to “Enter Sandman” came to Blacksburg for the right reasons and have made this Virginia Tech alum proud.

Has it always been pretty on the field? No, obviously not. But the problems in the football program are so much bigger than any of these individuals, or their coaches for that matter.

The misaligned Hokies have two games remaining, each against much more aligned opponents.

The Hokies-in-waiting have a lot to be excited about as the James Franklin era begins, but the question for today and the coming week centers on how smooth the overlap is in regimes, and can one play off the other.

Miami should steamroll Tech

There is no point in beating around the bush. Miami is an elite team that has posted very good results. The Hurricanes, currently sporting an ELO rating of 1914, are by far the best team Virginia Tech will play this year.

The disparity - more than 500 ELO points separate the two teams - is shocking.

Based on ELO alone, there is no reason to think the Hokies can even make this a game.

Advanced statistics tell the same story.

Miami is better at every position and in every facet of the game, save for placekicker.

So, why bother watching the game. If you have tickets, why attend?

For one, if you can go to the game, go. And be really loud for four quarters. I don’t care if Tech is trailing 55-3 midway through the third quarter. Stay, be loud, and be engaged.

Send a message to the players, recruits, and the incoming staff that the fanbase is as committed as the Board of Visitors now appears.

If you can’t go to the game, watch it on ESPN. Every set of eyeballs helps, financially speaking.

The real reason to watch, though, is to understand the why behind the coming player personnel moves. Players will cycle out, and new guys - many with different skill sets - will fill the vacant roster spots.

There will probably be some surprises, both coming and going. As a fanbase, it’s easier to get behind new players and coaches if you have already critically noted how individuals who arrived in Blacksburg pre-Franklin perform on the field and are likely to adapt to the new leadership and on-field systems.

Thoughts on the Franklin hire

For all the handwringing about his in-game coaching issues, Brent Pry failed as head coach because he couldn’t recruit good enough players.

The root cause of the recruiting challenges were deeper issues within the football program, driven by forces within the university and beyond, up to and including state government and demographic changes.

When prompted earlier in the week, Franklin said one thing that really set Virginia Tech apart from the other schools contacting him was that Tech’s search committee had a plan for the program. It did not just come to him and ask what he needed.

The fact that such a plan exists is good. The negotiation with Franklin has no doubt made it better.

The reality, though, is that the plan was unlikely to come to fruition without a Hall of Fame caliber coach who could hold everyone accountable.

James Franklin and Philip Montgomery could appeal to the school for the same capital expenditure - say, for a new football building with increased office space - but only Franklin has the cache to actually drive the project to completion.

Montgomery has shown himself to be an excellent football coach, guiding the Hokies to some unexpected wins and carrying himself with class.

Somehow, he has motivated the players to give outstanding effort, and when there have been issues behind the scenes, he has quietly dealt with them.

There has been no public drama.

That said, Monty, like Franklin, needs the right situation in order to be successful.

Franklin is a builder. Monty is an optimizer.

The school that lands Montgomery this offseason should consider itself extremely fortunate. I’m sure Whit Babcock will provide a glowing reference.

In the meantime, if Montgomery somehow leads the Hokies to an improbable victory over Miami, and in the process infuses even more excitement into Franklin’s visiting recruits, then he should be carried off the field.

Even keeping the final score within two touchdowns should merit a pat on the back and (quiet) congratulations in post-game interviews.

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To reach 7-5, however, FSU will need to win its final three games, two of which are on the road.

The Seminoles will probably be favored in all three games, but is it really likely that they win all three?

Breaking down their record, the 'Noles are an all-or-nothing sort of team:

• One-score games: 0-4

• Two touchdown games: 1-1

• Three or more touchdown game: 3-0

The line on Saturday night’s game is an even 14.0 points, so that means the Hokies have a 50% chance of winning the game, right?

Actually, yeah, they kinda do.

Framing this matchup in terms of offensive and defensive matchups is a fool’s game.

I promise you, on paper Florida St. entered its games with Stanford and UVA looking stronger in almost every statistical category.

FSU lost both games.

Likewise, did anyone really see Mike Norvell’s team not only upsetting, but dominating Alabama back in week 1?

In order to present as rich a picture as possible, first I’ll tackle the advanced stats, then I’ll break down the two versions of Florida St. that could face Virginia Tech.

The sum of Florida State’s parts

If we throw the 2025 Seminoles in a blender, what comes out, in smoothie form, is a team that should beat Virginia Tech by around 10 points.

In ELO terms, a 1500 rating roughly corresponds to a 6-6 power conference team. Every additional 100 rating points add a win and subtract a loss. So, just looking at ELO, Florida St. is roughly a 7-5 level team, while the Hokies are a 5-7 level team.

Team-level advanced stats tell a similar story - the Seminoles are better in almost every category.

The only advanced stat in the above chart that tilts in the Hokies’ direction is EPA on rushing plays when Virginia Tech has the ball.

Otherwise, the chart screams, “'Noles, comfortably.”

But none of the above numbers represent who the Seminoles are as a football team midway through November.

A host of transfers and a new offense took the first few opponents by surprise (mainly Alabama - the other two were patsies). However, once tape got out showing what this team does and does not do well, the results flip-flopped.

Normalizing results

The out of conference games seem like eons ago for both teams. Florida St. (3-0) was unstoppable, and Virginia Tech was unmovable (0-3).

In conference play, it has been a different story:

• Virginia Tech: 2-3, 24.8 ppg scored, 29.6 ppg allowed

• Florida State: 1-5, 26.0 ppg scored, 26.5 ppg allowed

Those results are much more even, but Florida State’s scoring is skewed by its win over Wake Forest (42-7). In fact, many of FSU’s one score losses were not as close as the final score made them appear.

With that in mind, here is a break down of the score through three quarters in conference games for each team:

• Virginia Tech

  • at NC State: winning 20-14 (won 23-21)

  • vs Wake Forest: losing 23-27 (lost 23-30)

  • at Georgia Tech: losing 14-28 (lost 20-35)

  • vs California: tied 20-20 (won 42-34 in OT)

  • vs Louisville: losing 16-21 (lost 16-28)

On average, the Hokies have scored 18.6 ppg in the first three quarters of their ACC games while allowing 22.0 ppg during those same three quarters.

Virginia Tech, -3.4 points through three quarters, tends to fade in the fourth quarter.

It has been a different story with the Seminoles:

• Florida State

  • at Virginia: tied 28-28 (lost 38-46 in OT)

  • vs Miami: losing 3-28 (lost 22-28)

  • vs Pittsburgh: winning 24-21 (lost 31-34)

  • at Stanford: losing 10-20 (lost 13-20)

  • vs Wake Forest: winning 28-0 (won 42-7)

  • at Clemson: losing 7-21 (lost 10-24)

In conference play, FSU is scoring 16.7 ppg through the first three quarters and allowing 19.7 ppg.

Like Virginia Tech, Florida St. has, on average, entered the fourth quarter of conference games trailing by a field goal. Unlike the Hokies, the Seminoles have rallied in the fourth quarter of their games.

If we throw out each team’s best result after three quarters, NC State for the Hokies and Wake Forest for the Seminoles, then we find the Hokies trailing on average by 5.8 points entering the fourth quarter and FSU losing by 9.2 points.

All of this is to say that in conference games, both teams’ stats are skewed by the fourth quarter. This period has hurt Tech’s numbers and helped FSU’s.

Virginia Tech was off last week, whereas Florida St. lost a tough game at Clemson.

Unless FSU breaks open the game early, there is a good chance the Hokies will begin the fourth quarter with a lead. At that point, the question will be, can the Hokies hold off a Seminole comeback bid?

Thoughts on the James Franklin situation

Numerous outlets this week have reported that Virginia Tech has met every demand James Franklin has made regarding the possibility of him becoming the next head coach in Blacksburg.

While that appears to be a good thing, it has me rather concerned. The search committee appears content to let the next coach determine the front office structure within the football program, which I think would be a massive mistake.

Franklin knows what has worked for him at Vanderbilt and Penn St. Virginia Tech in 2025 is rather different from both of Franklin’s previous stops.

That the Virginia Tech brass would let Franklin essentially draw the org chart within the program suggests to me that the committee knows neither what is wrong with Tech’s current setup, nor what should be done to fix it.

The savior model of coach appears to be on its way out. Virginia Tech could position itself for lasting success if it structured the front office, scouting, and development parts of the program - the permanent roles - independent of the next coach. The coach really should only be in charge of on-field decision making and its antecedents (i.e., hiring the coaching staff).

Once again, the Hokies appear to be one era behind college football’s leaders.

Will it cost them?

I’m afraid it might.

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This week James Franklin was the name du jour.

Perhaps next week the Louisiana governor will take a break from micromanaging the LSU athletic department in order to advise Virginia Tech’s search committee on who should wear the big whistle next year in Blacksburg.

Brian Kelly, anyone?

At this point, all the noise is pure comedy.

Let’s focus on the here and now.

After the Hokies beat Wofford, I wrote the following:

No one has more on the line than Philip Montgomery. A 6-2 conference record (obviously very unlikely) would make him Virginia Tech’s coach in 2026. Even five wins might be good enough to get that interim tag removed.

Four wins would get him a P4 coordinator job or a shot at a G5 head coaching opportunity.

Two to three wins would give him a shot at a G5 coordinator gig.

Anything less, and he’s probably done coaching college football.

The Hokies are 2-2 in the ACC, and 3-2 overall under Montgomery. He will be coaching college football next year if that is what he wants to do.

However, with dominoes not following (Matt Rhule, Curt Cignetti, and Rhett Lashlee have all recently signed contract extensions at their current schools), the list of coaches under consideration for open head coaching positions has shrunken.

Depending on who you ask, the Virginia Tech job is somewhere between #4 and #6 in terms of desirability among programs with openings, with the potential to fall further if the Florida St. and/or Auburn jobs come open.

All of this begs the question - is the sixth best available coach an upgrade over the current (interim) coach?

In his six weeks at the helm, Montgomery has:

• deftly and discreetly separated the players who did not belong in Blacksburg from those that do

• won two one-score games, twice as many as Brent Pry managed in three-plus years

• earned the appreciation of a fan base that was staring down a 1-11 season after Pry’s dismissal

And let us not forget that Monty won ten games in 2016 at Tulsa, and he took the Golden Hurricane to four bowl games during his eight-year tenure as head coach.

That experience should be good preparation for the slate of games Tech will play in November. The most favorable matchup, on paper anyway, is at Florida St., so if Montgomery wants to be the full-time head coach in Blacksburg, he’s going to have to earn it.

A win over a top-20 Louisville team in Lane Stadium would definitely help the cause, but it will not be easy.

In terms of both ELO (-308 points) and the spread (+11.5), Tech is a major home underdog.

While last week’s win over Cal was fun, it was not unexpected (Tech was favored according to ELO and the spread). Beating Louisville would be an attention getter.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Louisville (6-1, 3-1) features an elite defense that nonetheless allows opposing teams to score a surprising number of points.

The players in Louisville’s regular defensive rotation who have the lowest PFF grades on the season are on par with Kemari Copeland and Cody Huisman, Virginia Tech’s two highest graded defenders.

The Cardinals are especially stacked at Edge. If allowed to pin their ears back, those guys will embarrass Tech’s tackles.

Expect Montgomery to frequently leave them unblocked and attempt to option them into oblivion. If Monty and Drones can keep those Edges guessing, it will give Johnny Garrett and Aidan Lynch a fighting chance.

Louisville is very stingy against the run. However, one could credibly argue that the Hokies feature the best rushing attack that Louisville will face all season.

If Louisville commits an extra hat to the box, Tech will need its receivers to make plays on the outside.

Donovan Greene has been very quiet in recent weeks. He is due to break out of this recent funk and play a good game.

Benji Gosnell is another guy who has been rather quiet. Keeping a defense off balance requires the offense to break tendencies. For that reason, Gosnell is another player worth keeping an eye on.

Louisville knows the Hokies want to run the ball. The extent to which Tech will be successful in that endeavor depends on how far variety, misdirection, and play action will go toward equaling the talent/experience disparities that, in terms of 1-on-1 matchups, favor Louisville.

When Virginia Tech is on defense

The good news is that Louisville’s offense is not particularly dynamic. In fact, Virginia Tech’s offense has a higher EPA/play in both rushing and passing.

One stat that really stands out is stuff rate allowed, which is an astonishingly high 25.5% for Louisville.

Three of Louisville’s starting offensive linemen grade out below the baseline of 60, according to PFF. Whichever Virginia Tech tackle lines up opposite Louisville Guard Jordan Church is likely to have a big day. Church struggles mightily in pass blocking (41.7) and is below average in run blocking (57.8).

In fact, Louisville’s offense reminds me of South Carolina’s, except quarterback Miller Moss is not mobile and the Cardinal running backs are better.

Tech’s defensive line alone should keep the Hokies in this game.

The Hokies are likely to blitz a fair amount on passing downs, as the Louisville running backs, Isaac Brown (21.8) and Keyjuan Brown (18.1), are absolutely atrocious in pass blocking. The path of least resistance is running right through these backs.

Chris Bell, Louisville’s highest graded player on offense, is an excellent wide receiver. He is also a willing and able run blocker. However, none of the other pass catchers really jump off the page. That opens the possibility of the Hokies employing bracket coverage on Bell.

Overall, the Louisville offense is a pretty good matchup for Tech’s defense.

One key stat that could decide the game is average starting field position. Here, the Cardinals have a 5.4 yard advantage over the Hokies.

Final thoughts

Louisville’s ELO aligns with a 9-3 regular season, which suggests the Cardinals will go 3-2 in November.

That would mean Louisville is fixing to get upset because they should be favored in every game left on their schedule. The team’s toughest tests in its last four games are at home against Clemson and on the road at SMU.

In that context, a loss in Blacksburg looks as likely as anywhere else.

Virginia Tech is rightly the underdog, but this matchup is much closer than it has been portrayed all week.

Louisville’s gaudy rushing numbers do not align with their mediocre-at-best offensive line and average quarterback play.

Likewise, the defense’s impressive PFF numbers mask a surprising number of points allowed.

In four ACC games, Virginia Tech has allowed an average 30 points per game. Louisville has allowed an average of 26.

In regulation Louisville has allowed between 21 and 27 points to every ACC opponent.

Louisville’s 3-1 conference record is entirely driven by turnovers. In the three wins, the Cardinals forced a combined 12 turnovers, or 4 per game.

In the lone defeat, in overtime to UVA, they generated zero turnovers.

For Virginia Tech, there is no need to force anything on offense. Three runs and a punt is fine.

Louisville is squeaking out wins on the basis of their attacking defense forcing opposing offenses to make grievous mistakes.

The Hokies can score 24 points and win this game if they stay patient and avoid turning the ball over.

But if they give the ball away twice in the first half? Forget about it.

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Surprisingly, though, when we dig into the advanced stats and layer in the caveats, the -6.5 point line makes perfect sense.

The Hokies, despite their record, enter the game with an ELO advantage of 11 points. ELO is all about the results of each game and the quality of the opponent at the time.

Although Tech has lost five games already this season, only the Wake Forest loss was particularly bad in ELO terms. The Hokies really should have won that game. It took an incredible amount of bone-headed, drive-extending penalties to lose it.

Contrast that with Cal, whose best win was over Minnesota and whose losses include a shocking 34-0 defeat at the hands of mighty San Diego State University and a 45-21 drubbing by Duke. Both of these games were played in the state of California, so traveling to the East Coast was not an issue.

However, travel will be an issue Friday night.

Cal, working on a slightly shortened week, is coming off a 21-18 win over lowly North Carolina. This will be the second cross-country trip for the Golden Bears, who defeated Boston College in Chestnut Hill 28-24 a few weeks back.

Boston College is horrendous.

Throw in an extra week of prep for the Hokies, including some presumed healing among the myriad injured players, and one does not need to squint to see why Tech is favored to win the game.

But win by nearly a touchdown? If you think that seems a bit much, read on. The Hokies have some favorable matchups in this game.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Cal’s defense has been pretty good this season, Even in the blowout loss to SDSU, the Bears only allowed 321 yards.

In the two games Cal has lost, the opposing quarterback was very efficient:

• Jayden Denegal (SDSU): 15/18, 186 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

• Darien Mensah (Duke): 22/30, 265 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

In contrast, Cal’s freshman quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, threw only one touchdown opposite five interceptions in those two games.

If Kyron Drones is efficient and does not give the ball away, the Hokies should win the game.

Cal has been pretty good against the run, but again, the bears have not faced strong competition.

The most telling stat is the 14.6% stuff rate the Cal defense has put up this year. This is not a team that plays in the backfield.

Translation: the Tech offensive line, with its 18.3% stuff rate allowed, actually stands a chance.

BC and UNC combined to average 21 points scored in their losses to Cal. Playing at home at night with an extra week to prepare, the Hokies should be good for at least 24 points, if not 28.

When Cal has the ball

The Golden Bears do not have a good offense. Their overall EPA/play is 62.5% that of Virginia Tech’s offense. And Virginia Tech’s offense is…limited.

Cal struggles mightily to run the ball (0.00 EPA/run). Tech’s defense has been terrible against the run (0.51 EPA/run allowed). Something has to give.

Don’t expect the Tech defense to totally shut down the run, but Cal will have to throw to win, and that will be tough.

Cal’s EPA/pass matches that of Virginia Tech’s offense at 0.18. Can you imagine the Hokies having to throw to win?

They’d lose!

It is no surprise that with such a bad running game Cal struggles to stay on schedule (40.5% success rate). Here, they will encounter a pliable Tech defense (45.1% success rate allowed), but considering that Bears allow a 19.4% stuff rate and their quarterback has struggled of late, it is hard to imagine them going up and down the field on Tech.

And should Cal move the ball some, they still have not demonstrated an ability to finish drives with touchdowns. On the year, the Bears are averaging 3.63 points per trip inside the opponents’ 40-yard line.

Once again, that is an unadjusted advanced stat accumulated against a very weak schedule.

Final thoughts

Ok, so the line makes sense. Does it mean anything?

The Hokies have been chronically overrated dating back to…the Fuente era? Longer?

If nothing else, this should be a good game. Nothing in the numbers suggests a blowout in either direction.

Tech has a really good chance to pick up a third win, which would give everyone around the program some hope entering November, when the schedule toughens up.

Not to say that the schedule has been easy. South Carolina’s regression was predictable, but Vanderbilt is legit (that week 2 loss doesn’t look as bad anymore). The rest of Tech’s opponents have been between decent (ODU and NC State) and excellent (Georgia Tech).

This Tech team has been through a lot in the last two months. The Hokies are both battle hardened and well rested. And this game has been penciled in as a win since before the season started.

If not now, when?

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Don’t get me wrong, 13th ranked Georgia Tech is favored by 13.5 points for a reason.

Nominally, one would give weight to the fact that Georgia Tech is the home team and had an extra week to prepare for the Hokies.

However, at 2-4 and led by an interim coach, the 2025 Hokies are not the sort of team that motivates its opponents to dial in.

If anything, all that time off before hosting a lackluster opponent would suggest that perhaps Georgia Tech might come out lethargic.

Psychology aside, Georgia Tech is in the middle of a long run of soft games. Duke is the only half decent team that the Yellow Jackets will play between now and the finale against Georgia.

But, the question at hand is, do the not-quite-half-decent Hokies stand a chance of pulling the upset?

Surprisingly, yes.

Undefeated record and top 15 ranking aside, Georgia Tech hasn’t really played anyone. Their best win was over three loss-Clemson.

As a result, the Yellow Jackets enter the game with a 1568 ELO, which is on par with a seven-win team playing an average P4 schedule.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

The Hokies will probably struggle to move the ball against a stout Georgia Tech defense.

The Yellow Jackets are equally strong against the run and the pass, they do not give up explosive plays, and they allow a low success rate.

Combined with Virginia Tech’s below average offensive firepower, a reasonable expectation would be two to three Virginia Tech turnovers.

The key to scoring points will be field position, and there again the Yellow Jackets are the better team, by nearly two yards in average starting position.

The one advantage the Hokies offense has is average points on opportunities inside the opponents’ 40-yard line, where Virginia Tech is nearly one point better than Georgia Tech.

The Hokies are averaging 21.9 points per game on 5.2 drives that cross the opposing 40. Meanwhile Georgia Tech allows an average of 14.2 points per game on 4.6 such drives.

In football terms, the Hokies are scoring two touchdowns and kicking three field goals per game when they enter the scoring zone.

Even if they trade one of those touchdowns for a fourth field goal, it is imperative that the Hokies score every time they cross the Yellow Jacket 40.

When Georgia Tech has the ball

Georgia Tech is known for its ability to run the ball, but what gets talked about less is how the run game sets up the pass.

The Yellow Jackets enter the game with a 0.35 EPA per passing play, twice that of the Hokies.

It is hard to imagine the Hokies shutting down that passing attack, especially since the porous Hokie run defense will probably require reinforcements (e.g., an eight-man box).

The Georgia Tech offense is not explosive, but it does a great job of staying on schedule, thanks in part to a low stuff rate. The Yellow Jackets generally move in one direction - forward.

Expect Sam Siefkes to apply pressure on first down to try to get the Georgia Tech offense behind the sticks. All of Georgia Tech’s offensive advantages evaporate if the Hokies can get them into second and long consistently.

Action inside the Hokie 40-yard line will also be key. Georgia Tech is averaging 20.2 points per game on six trips inside their opponents scoring zone. Here, the Yellow Jackets are less efficient than the Hokies.

The trouble is that the Hokies defense is allowing 24.5 points per game on 5.2 trips inside its 40-yard line.

Combining these numbers with the numbers presented earlier when Virginia Tech has the ball, the expectation is that Georgia Tech will outscore the Hokies 22-17 on trips inside the forty.

Given that offensive explosiveness is nearly equal for the two offenses, but the Virginia Tech defense allows more explosive plays, the Hokies will need to either stiffen up on defense when Georgia Tech gets in the scoring zone, or do better at limiting explosive plays.

Of course, the Virginia Tech defense’s numbers are weighed down by the terrible performances against Vanderbilt and Old Dominion. The Hokies have been better since then, but those games still count.

Final thoughts

PFF grades point to a few favorable matchups for the Hokies.

Georgia Tech is a very average run blocking team (60.3), and the Virginia Tech defense actually grades out well against the run (84.2).

Additionally, the Yellow Jacket defense is not particularly strong in the areas where the Virginia Tech is weak:

• VT has been horrible in pass blocking (46.7), but the GT pass rush is just alright (65.3)

• GT is not a great tackling team (60.7), and for all the talk the GT run game gets, VT’s rushing offense actually has graded out better (82.3 vs. 78.9)

Virginia Tech does have a chance to pull the upset.

Pay close attention to the first two times each offense crosses the opposing 40-yard line. In order to win the game, Virginia Tech probably needs to net a five to seven point advantage in this metric.

If the Hokies can get touchdowns on both trips and limit Georgia Tech to field goals, good things could be in store.

Anything less will likely end in defeat.

Phillip Montgomery remains five victories away from becoming Virginia Tech’s full-time head coach, and there are only six games remaining in the regular season.

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Forty carries for 200+ yards is very possible, and would probably result in a Virginia Tech win.

I took a screenshot of the moment when the Hokies hit 200 yards on the ground. Turns out, they did in half the carries, thanks in large part to Terion Stewart’s 85-yard run.

As good as home cooking tastes, the Hokies are likely to encounter a much stiffer Wake Forest defense this week. On the flip side, the Wake offense does not pack nearly as much offensive punch.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Wake Forest’s defense is much better than NC State’s.

The Demon Deacons are excellent against the pass and solid against the run.

It is very possible that Wake will stack the box, similar to what the Wolfpack did last week, and trust its secondary to hold up on the outside. Given Tech’s youth along the offensive line, that would probably be a sound strategy.

Regardless of what the defense does, look for Tech to try to establish the run with the one-two punch of Stewart and Marcellous Hawkins. We have yet to see the Hokies give either back significant carries in a game, much less both in the same game.

Wake’s defensive numbers suggest that the best strategy for Tech’s offense this week is to give the ball to their stocky running backs and pound away on the defense for four quarters. The hope would be that the defense wears down as the game goes on.

An ideal breakdown of designed runs would be the following:

• Hawkins: 18 carries

• Stewart: 15 carries

• Drones: 8 designed carries

Stewart played a great game last week, but some of the pain he dishes out via his love of contact does reflect back on him. If he’s going to make it through the rest of the season, the Hokies really need to limit his touches. Fifteen carries is a logical maximum for one game.

Hawkins offers much more in the passing game and has demonstrated better durability. so he should get more snaps and more carries.

The two running backs are the highest graders on the Tech offense through five games:

• Stewart: 79.5 offense, 41.9 pass, 87.1 run

• Hawkins: 76.9 offense, 66.2 pass, 77.9 run

Wake does have a very high defensive stuff rate (27.6%), so it will be important for Tech’s line to get a good push up front.

Finally, Wake is very good at limiting opponents to field goal attempts once they get inside the 40-yard line. John Love will likely attempt three or four field goals, but it is important that the Hokies also score some touchdowns.

When Virginia Tech is on defense

Wake Forest appears weakest up front on offense. The Deacons allow a stuff (2 yards or less) on 25.2% of their runs.

Meanwhile, six out Virginia Tech’s seven highest graders on defense play along the defensive line.

As of Saturday morning, Wake quarterback Robby Ashford and running back Demond Claiborne are both listed as probable. However, they will not be 100%.

Claiborne is very hit or miss. At first blush, his stats look pretty gaudy (8.0 yards per carry jumps off the screen). However, he put up more than half of his total yards on Western Carolina.

He did play well against Georgia Tech last week, though, running for over 100 yards on 21 carries.

Ashford has thrown for at least 200 yards in every game this season, but his completion rate is under 60%, and he has only thrown one touchdown opposite three interceptions.

Ashford is a capable runner when healthy, so keep an eye on his mobility early in the game.

Wake Forest has only played two P4 teams this year, which makes their 37.0% success rate worse than it appears. And it looks none-too-good.

Overall, if the Tech defense of weeks 1, 4, and 5 shows up today inside Lane Stadium. then Wake Forest should struggle to move the ball consistently. In that case, twenty points allowed looks like a reasonable ceiling.

X-factors

Wake has lost two games in a row and is coming off a gut-wrenching, referee-assisted, overtime defeat at the hands of Georgia Tech.

The Deacons had sixteen days to prepare for that game and led by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

With their best offensive players battling injuries and the team trying to right itself after such a grueling loss, it is an open question just how much fight the Demon Deacons will bring to Blacksburg.

If Tech can wear Wake down, how soon will doubt creep in?

Meanwhile, the Hokies are in the exact opposite position. After losing their first three games, Tech has won two straight and is getting healthy just as conference play ramps up.

The Hokies have performed miserably at home this year, a trend unlikely to continue.

Philip Montgomery needs five more wins to become Virginia Tech’s full-time head coach, and these are the sorts of games Brent Pry always won by a million points.

Monty isn’t Pry, which is generally a good thing. In this instance, though, the result will probably be a more workmanlike, grind it out sort of game that the Hokies stand a great chance of winning.

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By that time, the Hokies, as well as most other college football teams, have played at least one good team, one bad team, and one mediocre team.

There are also at least 200 snaps that have been played on both offense and defense, which provides some statistical power to back up the story the numbers tell.

This season is different, or is it?

On the one hand, the Hokies that play on Saturday night at NC State have not played a football game this season, not as a post-Brent Pry, post opt-out team.

On the other hand, was Pry’s impact on gameday really that great? Is losing the players that have departed really that much different than when players get injured?

The optimistic case is the following:

• The offensive line appears to be getting healthier, and it was injuries upfront that originally set the tailspin in motion

• Losing uncommitted players is addition by subtraction

• Philip Montgomery is a better head coach than Brent Pry, especially on game day

The pessimistic case says:

• The defense is getting Covid-era thin at some positions (think 2020 North Carolina game at Edge and linebacker)

• If the players are half as dejected as the fans, the fight they put up from here on out will be minimal

• This team wasn’t even that good to begin with

Perhaps some numbers can help make sense of what is likely to transpire tonight at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh.

When the Hokies have the ball

First off, these teams are closer in terms of on-field potential than one might expect based on their records. NC State enters with an ELO of 1494, putting them just slightly below average in FBS. The Hokies, meanwhile, carry a 1449 ELO.

Translation: NC State is better, but maybe by a field goal on a neutral field, if you average out 10 such results. At home at night, the Wolfpack are probably about a touchdown better than the Hokies.

But that is all in the aggregate, and it considers hypothetical matchups in which the present remains the present throughout the entire game, i.e., nobody gets hurt and nobody emerges as a major factor.

NC State’s defense appears poised to make Tech’s offense look good, on the ground at least.

The Wolfpack are decent enough defending the pass to hold Kyron Drones to an average performance. Think something in the neighborhood of 60% completion, 200 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

Those yards, however, are likely to come on big, chunk plays. With the Hokies playing on the road against a team that struggles to stop the run, expect to see a healthy dose of Tech’s stable of running backs.

Forty carries for 200+ yards is very possible, and would probably result in a Virginia Tech win.

Here’s something else to keep in mind. As anemic as Tech’s offense has looked at times, the Hokies actually score more points on average when they cross the opponent’s 40 yard-line than NC State does.

The Hokies are also successful on 46% of their offensive plays, which is two percentage points better than the Wolfpack.

Where Virginia Tech has struggled is the lack of explosiveness on offense, and that is precisely what NC State’s defense appears set to rectify.

When NC State has the ball

As a team, NC State does not run the ball very well. An EPA/play of 0.07 on runs isn’t awful, but it’s not that much better than Tech’s 0.05.

If Sam Siefkes can successfully scheme against Hollywood Smothers (e.g., make Bailey keep the ball on options, stack the box, etc.), the Hokies defense might be able to put up a fight.

However, Virginia Tech’s 0.62 EPA/play allowed on runs is absolutely atrocious. Most likely, NC State will run the ball at will against the Hokies.

Another possibility is that Siefkes might sell out on offense to try to get NC State into second-and-long. NC State allows a surprisingly astronomic 33.3% stuff rate.

If Virginia Tech can consistently stuff first down runs, then the Wolfpack might be baited into throwing on second- and third-down.

Such a situation may or may not benefit Tech. The Hokies are getting thin in the secondary, and NC State quarterback CJ Bailey has put up huge numbers this season.

He will turn the ball over, though.

Again, the key appears to be pressure. Expect Siefkes to send extra rushers more frequently than Tech has shown through four games this season.

Overall

The Hokies are 0-0 in conference play. Florida St. lost at Virginia last night, and Clemson has two losses in conference (three overall). The ACC is wide open.

Many Virginia Tech players have a ton to play for. Seniors can improve their draft prospects. Underclassmen all have financial, and possibly transfer portal, considerations that should spur them to play hard.

Likewise, the coaches are all trying to put a good product on the field in order to improve their chances of landing a good job next year.

And at the top, no one has more on the line than Philip Montgomery. A 6-2 conference record (obviously very unlikely) would make him Virginia Tech’s coach in 2026. Even five wins might be good enough to get that interim tag removed.

Four wins would get him a P4 coordinator job or a shot at a G5 head coaching opportunity.

Two to three wins would give him a shot at a G5 coordinator gig.

Anything less, and he’s probably done coaching college football.

Tonight we will find out what has truly been lost in 2025, and what is still out there to be gained.

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The team definitely has personnel holes - notably along the offensive line and at linebacker - but it had similar holes in previous years and lacked the depth we have seen this year, yet still managed to win six regular season games.

In 2025, the second stringers have played nearly to the level of the starters, which would be great were it not for the fact that the starters have been horrible.

Changing the offensive and defensive schemes entering year four was far from ideal, but with so many incoming transfers it boggles the mind that the team couldn’t find players who fit the new schemes, especially on defense.

In short, I don’t think this Virginia Tech team is as bad as they have played lately. Rather, I think the version that played the first half against Vanderbilt is probably the closest we have seen thus far of median 2025 Virginia Tech,

Offense

It all went south for the Hokies when left tackle Johnny Garrett exited the Vanderbilt game with an injury. His absence, along with that of right guard Montavious Cunningham, has forced a host of young linemen to play before they are ready.

And yet, Garrett was not having a good year. His PFF grade was an atrocious 52.8. Cunningham was worse at 46.9.

So how did replacing bad linemen with young bad linemen completely tank the Hokies’ season?

It didn’t.

The team couldn’t pass block before the injuries, and it has gotten marginally worse with all the freshmen playing up front.

The big change came in the run/pass ratio. At a high level, though, it’s difficult to detect a major shift:

1. vs. South Carolina: 37 runs, 35 passes (51% run)

2. vs. Vanderbilt: 31 runs, 29 passes (52% run)

3. vs. Old Dominion: 34 runs, 39 passes (47% run)

However, sacks and scrambles go down on the stat sheet as runs, so let’s look at drop backs for Kyron Drones:

1. vs. South Carolina: 41 drop backs out of 72 plays (57% pass plays)

2. vs. Vanderbilt: 36 drop backs out of 60 plays (60% pass plays)

3. vs. Old Dominion: 53 drop backs out of 73 plays (73% pass plays)

As a play caller, Philip Montgomery appears to favor a roughly 50/50 share of rushing calls to passing calls when the game is close. Once the game gets out of hand and the Hokies find themselves down by more than one score, he has to throw a lot more. Consider the following count of minutes during which the Hokies have been leading or within one score:

1. vs. South Carolina: leading or within one score for 48 minutes (3.2 quarters)

2. vs. Vanderbilt: leading or within one score for 50 minutes (3.3 quarters)

3. vs. Old Dominion: leading or within one score for 17.5 minutes (1.2 quarters)

True to form, Montgomery has not asked Drones to keep the ball on designed QB carries more than 9 times in a game this year.

The running backs have had their moments, but the scoreboard has rendered them non-entities for 36% of the season - the amount of game time during which the Hokies have trailed by more than one touchdown.

Don’t get me wrong, the Tech offense is not good. But we knew it wouldn’t be good - not with so little experience up front.

The fixable problem lies on the other side of the ball.

Defense

Raise your hand if you had the secondary pegged before the season as the biggest trouble spot on the team.

Yeah, I don’t think anyone saw that coming.

Through the first three games of the season, the Virginia Tech defense as a whole has a 42.9 coverage grade and has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.2% of their passes.

As bad as the offensive line has been, both pass blocking and run blocking have graded out above 50.

Only four players with at least 20 coverage snaps have graded out above 60:

• Quentin Reddish (S) - 77.4

• Isaiah Brown-Murray (CB) - 64.3

• Christian Ellis (NB) - 62.1

• Thomas Williams (CB) - 61.2

Caleb Brown (41.7) and the recently departed Dante Lovett (44.8) saw their snaps drastically reduced because of their struggles.

That would be the case with other players too if their backups were not equally bad against the pass.

Unfortunately, there have been no good options at linebacker, nickel, or safety, where every player in the rotation has been atrocious in coverage.

Take linebacker, for instance. Caleb Woodson. His coverage grade is 53.2, and he has allowed 5 completions on 6 attempts.

The Jaden Keller/Michael Short combination has been even worse. Both have coverage grades below 50, and combined they have allowed 8 completions in 9 attempts.

Is it a Sam Siefkes thing? Nope.

Woodson (50.6) and Keller (53.6) were terrible in coverage last year, too.

Short had a better grade last year at North Carolina (71.1), but most of that came against Boston College and UConn late in the season, and he still allowed two catches on three targets overall.

Can anything be done?

Brent Pry was fired because he wasn’t able to elevate recruiting.

The main reason he failed to improve the talent level was that Virginia Tech’s poor football operation (management structure) could not compete against peer programs.

That is how the Hokies ended up with a roster full of G5 and FCS transfers. Tech looked big time compared to where they came from.

Now we’re seeing that for many of those players, the adjustment to P4 football is not immediate.

In order to post a respectable showing the rest of the way, Sam Siefkes needs to fix the coverage problems in the secondary.

At least in theory, those players, who had had some success before transferring to Virginia Tech, are capable of adjusting to the speed of the game at the P4 level and showing improved play as the season progresses.

The first step to winning games is getting stops on third and long, and there is no time like the present to make strides in that direction.

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